NFL longshot picks, odds, player props, predictions: Model backing James Cook Over 80 rushing yards on MNF

The SportsLine Projection Model reveals its top NFL longshot props for Falcons vs. Bills and Commanders vs. Bears on Monday Night Football

By Ryan Wooden

Oct 13, 2025 at 10:18 am ET • 3 min read

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A Monday Night Football doubleheader in Week 6 means twice as many NFL player props and more chances to find NFL longshot picks with enhanced payouts. A full night of NFL betting begins at 7:15 p.m. ET with Falcons vs. Bills, followed by Commanders vs. Bears at 8:15 p.m. ET. It's a quarterback-focused league, and it will be a quarterback-focused night with the reigning NFL MVP Josh Allen playing along with three first-round picks from a year ago (Michael Penix Jr., Jayden Daniels and Caleb Williams).

However, we're spotlighting Bills running back James Cook in one of our top NFL longshot props tonight. Cook to rush for 80 yards or more is priced as high as +132 in the latest Week 6 NFL odds, and he's already piled up three 100-yard rushing games this season. The model also has two other Monday Night Football longshots that you can target for bigger payouts.

SportsLine's Projection Model can help you find value to add to your Week 6 NFL picks at top online sportsbooks. It can also help new users take advantage of sportsbook promos like the latest Caesars Sportsbook promo code, where new users receive 20 100% profit boost tokens with the code CBS20X:

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model is on a sizzling 41-21 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. Anybody following its NFL predictions at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns.

Best Week 6 NFL longshot picks:

James Cook, Bills, alt line 80+ rushing yards (+132)
D'Andre Swift, Bears, alt line 60+ rushing yards (+171)
Luke McCaffrey, Commanders, anytime touchdown scorer (+400)

Parlay these picks for +3120 odds at DraftKings (odds subject to change)

James Cook, Bills, alt line 80+ rushing yards (+132)

He's averaging 90 rushing yards per game this season and has already cracked the century mark in three of Buffalo's first five games. Dating back to October of last season, he's cracked this total in 11 of his last 20 games including the postseason, so getting plus-money here regardless of the opponent is a bargain. However, things get even better when you consider that the Falcons rank 16th in run defense and 23rd in yards allowed per carry. The model predicts 85 yards on average for Cook. New customers can also use the latest FanDuel promo code to receive $300 in bonus bets if your first $5 wins. Claim this FanDuel Sportsbook bonus here.

D'Andre Swift, Bears, alt line 60+ rushing yards (+171)

The Bears have struggled to get their running game going this season, but Swift has still hit this number once already this season, and Ben Johnson has had the bye week to try to cure what ails his rushing attack. The Commanders might also be a remedy, as they rank 17th in run defense this season and most recently gave up 155 rushing yards to the Chargers in a win. The model predicts that Swift finishes with 62 yards on average, making this a great value play. Get this price at DraftKings, where you can also get $200 in bonus bets if your first $5 wager wins.

Luke McCaffrey, Commanders, anytime touchdown scorer (+400)

A third-round pick in the 2024 NFL Draft and the younger brother of 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey, Luke McCaffrey hasn't earned a high-volume role in the Washington offense yet, but he's slowly winning over the staff. He has a touchdown reception in two of the last three weeks and also broke a 50-yarder in Jayden Daniels' return to action last week. These odds imply a 20% chance of scoring, but the model predicts that he scores 0.31 touchdowns on average.