MLB picks: Red Sox at Yankees Game 1 prediction, props, best bets for Tuesday

The storied rivalry between two American League East foes continues in the 2025 MLB postseason as the New York Yankees host the Boston Red Sox on Tuesday for the opener of their best-of-three Wild Card series. New York and Boston are meeting in the playoffs for the sixth time overall and first since the Red Sox defeated the Yankees 6-2 in the 2021 AL Wild Card Game.

New York won the first two postseason meetings between the teams, defeating Boston in the 1999 and 2003 AL Championship Series. The Red Sox have had the upper hand ever since, making an historic comeback from an 0-3 series deficit to win the 2004 ALCS and beating the Yankees in the best-of-five 2018 AL Division Series before posting the victory in 2021.

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Two of the top pitchers in the sport this season square off, as MLB wins leader Max Fried (19-5, 2.86 ERA) takes the mound for New York while fellow left-hander Garrett Crochet (18-5, 2.59) gets the call for Boston. First pitch at Yankee Stadium is set for 6:08 p.m. ET, and the game will be televised nationally on ESPN.

If you're looking to get into MLB betting and want the latest Red Sox vs. Yankees odds, projections and player props, be sure to check out the SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times.

Fried, who spent the first eight years of his major-league career with the Atlanta Braves and won a World Series championship in 2021, went 7-0 over his first 11 starts in his debut season with the Yankees and also won his final seven decisions of 2025. The 31-year-old faced Boston three times, going 1-1 with a 1.96 ERA while recording 22 strikeouts over 18 1/3 innings.

While with the Braves, Fried went 2-5 with a 5.10 ERA in 20 career postseason games, including 12 starts, and 0-1 with a 3.90 ERA in 12 playoff appearances since fanning six batters across six scoreless innings en route to the victory in Atlanta's championship-clinching win against the Houston Astros in 2021.

Crochet is making his first career postseason start but made four scoreless relief appearances in the playoffs with the Chicago White Sox from 2020-21. The 26-year-old led the major leagues with 255 strikeouts this season, his first with the Red Sox, and went 3-0 with a 3.29 ERA and fanned 39 batters over 27 1/3 frames in four turns against the Yankees.

Top sportsbooks have set the total strikeouts prop for Crochet at 7.5 (Over -131, Under +101) and Fried at 5.5 (Over -140, Under +105). The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, rates Fried's Over 5.5 strikeouts prop as a 3.5-star play on its 5-star scale and Crochet's Under 7.5 as a 3-star play.

New York slugger Aaron Judge, who eclipsed the 50-home run mark for the third time in four seasons this year, is the +215 favorite to go deep at FanDuel Sportsbook. He's followed by teammates Giancarlo Stanton (+320) and Paul Goldschmidt (+420). Trevor Story is the favorite to homer for Boston at +460.

Check out the model's plays for Red Sox vs. Yankees on Tuesday: 

BOSTON RED SOX at NEW YORK YANKEES | 9/30 | 6:08 p.m. ET, ESPN

Money line
Pick: Yankees -135
New York wins in 64% of simulations

Run line
Pick: Yankees -1.5 (+162)
New York covers in 40% of simulations, bringing value at these odds

Over/Under
Pick: Over 7 (-114)
The Over hits in 62.6% of simulations

Projected score: Yankees 4.9, Red Sox 4.1