MLB picks: Tigers at Guardians Game 3 prediction, props, best bets for Thursday

A spot in the American League Division Series is at stake when the Cleveland Guardians host the Detroit Tigers on Thursday in Game 3 of their AL Wild Card Series at Progressive Field. The Guardians posted a 6-1 victory on Wednesday after dropping a 2-1 decision to the Tigers in the opener, setting up a decisive third contest between the AL Central rivals that will determine who faces the Seattle Mariners in the next round.

Cleveland took an early lead in Game 2 as George Valera belted a one-out solo homer in the first inning and rallied for five runs in the eighth, with Brayan Rocchio's solo blast snapping a 1-1 tie. Daniel Schneemann delivered an RBI double to make it 3-1, and Bo Naylor launched a three-run shot to give the Guardians a five-run advantage before Cade Smith got Dillon Dingler to line out with the bases loaded and two outs in the ninth to seal the win.

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Detroit sends Jack Flaherty (8-15, 4.64 ERA) to the mound in Game 3, while Cleveland counters with Slade Cecconi (7-7, 4.30). First pitch at Progressive Field is set for 3:08 p.m. ET, and the game will be televised nationally on ABC.

If you're looking to get into MLB betting and want the latest Tigers vs. Guardians odds, projections and player props, be sure to check out the SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times.

Flaherty, who helped the Los Angeles Dodgers to the World Series championship last season, will be facing Cleveland for a third consecutive time. The 29-year-old right-hander allowed just one run over five innings against the Guardians on Sept. 17 but yielded three across 4 1/3 frames a week later. Flaherty took the loss in both of those outings, as well as in his turn versus Cleveland on May 22 in which he gave up three runs in 6 2/3 innings, but he registered 18 strikeouts over 16 frames in the three starts. 

Cecconi faced the Tigers twice during the regular season, earning a victory at Detroit on May 23 after allowing just one run and striking out six batters over six innings but taking the loss at home on July 4 despite giving up only two runs and registering five strikeouts across six frames. The 26-year-old righty struck out three while lasting just four innings against the Texas Rangers is his final regular-season start last Friday.

Top sportsbooks have set the total strikeouts props for Flaherty at 4.5 (Over -119, Under -109) and Cecconi at 3.5 (Over -120, Under -107). The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, rates both Flaherty's Over 4.5 strikeouts prop and Cecconi's Over 3.5 as 5-star plays on its 5-star scale.

Detroit's Riley Greene and Cleveland's Jose Ramirez are +400 co-favorites to go deep at FanDuel Sportsbook. They are followed by Kerry Carpenter of the Tigers (+450), Kyle Manzardo of the Guardians (+460), Detroit's Spencer Torkelson (+500) and Naylor (+500).

Check out the model's plays for Tigers vs. Guardians on Thursday: 

DETROIT TIGERS at CLEVELAND GUARDIANS | 10/2 | 3:08 p.m. ET, ABC

Money line
Pick: Guardians -129
Cleveland wins in 53% of simulations

Run line
Pick: Guardians -1.5 (+174)
Cleveland covers in 71% of simulations

Over/Under
Pick: Over 7 (-121)
The Over hits in 49.4% of simulations, bringing value at these odds

Projected score: Guardians 4.0, Tigers 3.9