MLB picks: Red Sox at Yankees Game 2 prediction, props, best bets for Wednesday

The New York Yankees look to stave off elimination when they host the Boston Red Sox on Wednesday for Game 2 of their best-of-three American League Wild Card Series. After reaching the World Series last year, New York desperately needs a win to avoid an early playoff exit after dropping a 3-1 decision to Boston in Tuesday's opener.

Boston, which ended New York's campaign each of the last three times the bitter rivals met in the postseason, erased a 1-0 deficit in the seventh inning of the series opener on a two-run single by pinch hitter Masataka Yoshida. That was enough for the pitching staff, as Garrett Crochet recorded 11 strikeouts over 7 2/3 stellar innings and former Yankee Aroldis Chapman fanned a pair of batters to escape a bases-loaded, no-out jam in the ninth.

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The Red Sox, who are 10-4 overall against New York this year and 6-2 at Yankee Stadium, look to complete the series sweep with Brayan Bello (11-9, 3.35 ERA) on the mound while the Yankees counter with Carlos Rodon (18-9, 3.09). First pitch at Yankee Stadium is set for 6:08 p.m. ET, and the game will be televised nationally on ESPN.

If you're looking to get into MLB betting and want the latest Red Sox vs. Yankees odds, projections and player props, be sure to check out the SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times.

Bello ended the regular season on a down note, losing each of his final three starts including one against the Yankees. The 26-year-old Dominican right-hander was superb in both of his first two turns against New York in 2025, posting the victory while scattering three hits over seven scoreless innings in each outing. Bello registered 17 strikeouts across 19 frames in his three starts against the Bronx Bombers this year.

Rodon, who set a career high in victories and finished fourth in the AL in strikeouts (203) this season, was superb over the final two months of the regular season as he won seven of his last nine decisions and allowed more than two runs just once in his last 10 starts. The 32-year-old left-hander picked up the win in a meeting with Boston in August after losing his first two turns against the club. Rodon fanned 12 batters over 15 2/3 innings in the three outings against the Red Sox.

Bello is making his postseason debut, while Rodon is 1-3 with a 6.64 ERA in six career playoff games - including one relief appearance. Rodon made four starts during New York's run to the World Series last year, going 1-2 while recording 25 strikeouts over 17 2/3 innings. 

Top sportsbooks have set the total strikeouts prop for Rodon at 5.5 (Over -142, Under +108) and Bello at 4.5 (Over +118, Under -155). The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, rates Rodon's Over 5.5 strikeouts prop and Bello's Over 4.5 as 3.5-star plays on its 5-star scale.

New York slugger Aaron Judge, who eclipsed the 50-home run mark for the third time in four seasons this year, is the +320 favorite to go deep at FanDuel Sportsbook. He's followed by teammates Giancarlo Stanton (+370), Trent Grisham (+430), Ben Rice (+440) and Jazz Chisholm Jr. (+450). Trevor Story is the favorite to homer for Boston at +540.

Check out the model's plays for Red Sox vs. Yankees on Wednesday: 

BOSTON RED SOX at NEW YORK YANKEES | 10/1 | 6:08 p.m. ET, ESPN

Money line
Pick: Yankees -184
New York wins in 66% of simulations

Run line
Pick: Yankees -1.5 (+127)
New York covers in 43% of simulations, bringing value at these odds

Over/Under
Pick: Over 7.5 (+102)
The Over hits in 64% of simulations

Projected score: Yankees 5.1, Red Sox 4.0