MLB picks: Dodgers at Phillies Game 1 prediction, props, best bets for Saturday

The Philadelphia Phillies host the Los Angeles Dodgers on Saturday in Game 1 of their National League Division Series. First pitch is set for 6:38 p.m. ET from Citizens Bank Field in the nationally televised contest. 

Philadelphia has managed a 55-26 home record in home games and 96-66 record overall. Its hitters are batting .258, the second-best team batting average in Major League Baseball.

Los Angeles is 93-69 overall and 41-40 on the road. The Dodgers have gone 53-22 in games in which they hit two or more home runs. The Phillies hold a 4-2 advantage in the season series and won two of three in a weekend series the last time these teams met. 

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If you're looking to get into MLB betting and want the latest Dodgers vs. Phillies odds, projections and player props, be sure to check out the SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times.

Dodgers dual-threat star Shohei Ohtani will make his postseason pitching debut. He will become the first player in MLB history to start at least one game as a pitcher and at least one as a non-pitcher in a single postseason.

"I know that Sho will revel being in that environment and pitching in Game 1," Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman told the media. "I think we have a really talented rotation. I think it's going to be a strength for us if we go forward."

After spending the first year-plus of his Dodgers tenure rehabbing from a second major surgery on his right elbow, Ohtani returned to the mound in June. He went 1-1 with a 2.87 ERA while increasing his workload across 14 starts.

He will be opposed by Phillies imposing left-hander Christopher Sanchez, who is 13-5 with a 2.50 ERA in 32 starts this season. The 6-foot-6 pitcher 6-0 with a 1.94 ERA in 15 home starts but has a 5.68 in two starts this season against the Dodgers, both of which resulted in no-decisions.

Top sportsbooks have set the total strikeouts props for Sanchez at Under 6.5 (-128) and Ohtani Under 5.5 (+121). Home run props are led by Kyle Schwarber (+220), Ohtani (+330), Bryce Harper (+350), Max Muncy (+500) and Trea Turner (+630), all odds at FanDuel. 

Check out the model's plays for Phillies vs. Dodgers on Saturday: 

LOS ANGELES DODGERS at PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES | 10/4 | 6:30 p.m. ET, TBS

Money line
Pick: Phillies -122
Philadephia wins in 56% of simulations

Run line
Pick: Phillies +1.5 (-210)
Philadelphia covers in 71% of simulations

Over/Under
Pick: Over 7 (-120)
The Over hits in 67 of simulations. 

Projected score: Phillies 4.8, Dodgers 4.5