MLB Home Run Derby Best Bets

MLB Home Run Derby Best Bets

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(Lines from DraftKings)

Winning Nationality: USA -205

Five of the eight participants in the derby are from the United States, and notably, five of the top six in terms of odds are American. This bet essentially comes down to rooting against Oneil Cruz. While Cruz has elite exit velocity numbers, his in-game home run production is lower than most of the field. Given the numbers and depth of American talent, this is a solid foundational bet.

Oneil Cruz to Record the Highest Exit Velocity: +115

Cruz holds the record for the highest exit velocity ever recorded at 122.9 mph and leads the entire field in average exit velocity. Getting him at plus money to lead in this category is strong value, especially considering his raw power and ability to generate elite contact.

Jazz Chisholm Under 17.5 Round 1 Home Runs (+100)

Chisholm missed a month earlier this season with an oblique injury, making his participation in the derby a bit surprising. It's likely the Yankees will encourage him not to go all out, and even if he does, he enters with the longest odds to win. This under is supported by both health concerns and his overall power profile.

James Wood Over 20.5 Round 1 Home Runs (+100)

Several players hit 21+ in the first round last year, and the summer heat in Atlanta should help the ball carry. Wood is just 22 years old, which should help with endurance, and he has familiarity with the park since the Braves are in his division. This is a strong over play based on youth, power, and environment.