MLB Divisional Race Predictions: Blue Jays have a 71.2% chance of winning AL East, Yankees at just 28.8%
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I put out some best playoff bets after the MLB All-Star Game and they are all hitting.
With five games to go, there are several close races that are coming down to the wire. The Yankees are now one game behind the Blue Jays in the AL East standings, but Toronto has the tiebreaker, meaning the Yankees have to gain two games on them in the next five to win the division. We give the Blue Jays a 71.2% chance of winning the division and the Yankees a 28.8% chance to win the division.
AL East FanDuel Odds: Toronto -310 (75.6%) / NYY +240 (29.4%)
The AL Central has seen a remarkable twist. 13 Days ago the Detroit Tigers had a 99.9% chance of winning the AL Central and a 99.8% chance of making the playoffs, but that is now down to a 39% chance to win the division and an 84.8% chance to make the playoffs. The Tigers are 1-9 in their last 10 games, and the Cleveland Guardians, who were sellers at the deadline, have won 9 of their last 10 games. Back on September 5th, Cleveland had a 0.1% chance to win the division and a 3% chance of making the playoffs with their record at 69-70. Now they are 16-2 in their last 18 games and have a 61% chance of winning the division and a 87.4% chance of making the playoffs according to the ITL model.
AL Central FanDuel Odds: Cleveland -235 (70.1%)/ Detroit +190 (34.5%)
The Houston Astros had a 90% chance of making the playoffs on 8/26 according to the ITL model, but after losing last night to the Athletics and falling a game out of Detroit and Cleveland, they are now at a 31.8% chance to make the playoffs.
Houston Astros Playoff FanDuel Odds: Yes +136 (42.4%) / No -168 (62.7%)
AL East
Toronto Blue Jays
Current Record: 90-67
Projected Record: 92.6 - 69.4
Playoff%: 100
Division%: 71.2
ALCS%: 16.8
WS%: 6.4
New York Yankees
Current Record: 89-68
Projected Record: 92.4 - 69.6
Playoff%: 100
Division%: 28.8
ALCS%: 27.4
WS%: 15.1
AL Central
Cleveland Guardians
Current Record: 85-72
Projected Record: 87.6-74.4
Playoff%: 87.4
Division%: 61
ALCS%: 2.8
WS%: 0.7
Detroit Tigers
Current Record: 85-72
Projected Record: 87.5-74.5
Playoff%: 84.8
Division%: 39
ALCS%: 8.2
WS%: 3.3
AL West
Houston Astros
Current Record: 84-73
Projected Record: 86.8-75.2
Playoff%: 31.8
Division%: 0
ALCS%: 6.2
WS%: 2.3
NL West
Los Angeles Dodgers
Current Record: 88-69
Projected Record: 90.2-71.8
Playoff%: 100
Division%: 85.7
NLCS%: 12
WS%: 8.2
San Diego Padres
Current Record: 87-70
Projected Record: 90.2-71.8
Playoff%: 100
Division%: 14.2
NLCS%: 5
WS%: 3.2
Final NL Wild Card Spot
New York Mets
Current Record: 81-76
ITL Playoff%: 57.6
Cincinnati Reds
Current Record: 80-77
ITL Playoff%: 29.3
Arizona Diamondbacks
Current Record: 80-77
ITL Playoff%: 12.4
