Mariners vs. Mets same-game parlay for Sunday Night Baseball from proven expert includes Juan Soto

Sunday Night Baseball has a different layer to it this week as the Seattle Mariners and New York Mets face off in Williamsport, Pa., for the annual Little League Classic. The popular annual event showcases two MLB teams who face off at the home of the Little League World Series. The Mariners took the first game of the series 11-9 in a back-and-forth affair before the Mets responded with a 3-1 win on Saturday. Sunday's Little League Classic on ESPN's Sunday Night Baseball is the rubber match. First pitch was scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET,  but rain has pushed that start time to 7:45 p.m. The game will air on ESPN.

Two starters with identical 3.71 ERAs take the mound when George Kirby starts for the Mariners and Clay Holmes goes for the Mets. Kirby has pitched well of late and is coming off one of his best starts of the year as he allowed only a single run in seven innings against the Baltimore Orioles. Holmes, meanwhile, has not pitched very well of late, and he allowed five runs in 3.2 innings against the Atlanta Braves in his most recent outing.

The Mariners are -125 money-line favorites (wager $125 to win $100), per SportsLine consensus odds, while the Mets are +105 underdogs (wager $100 to win $105). The total is set at 8.5, with the Under priced at -105 and Over at -115.

Angelo Magliocca, also known as "Amags," is a regular contributor to The Early Edge and CBS Sports HQ, is a seasoned MLB handicapper up 123.5 units over the last three MLB seasons. He's put together a same-game parlay at DraftKings Sportsbook for Sunday Night Baseball that includes Mets star outfielder Juan Soto.

Sunday Night Baseball Same-Game Parlay: +305, DraftKings (0.5 units)

• Mariners ML
• George Kirby 5+ strikeouts
• Juan Soto 1+ Hit

Sunday Night Baseball takes a bit of a different shape this week as the Seattle Mariners and New York Mets travel to Williamsport, Pa., for the Little League Classic. This is another one of those special matchups that MLB is trying to push, same as the Speedway Classic and Field of Dreams game, but the difference is there's a longer track record here, with MLB playing seven games in this venue previously dating back to 2017. The game has gone Over the current total of 8.5 just twice, but not since 2018, so I lean to the Under here, though I'm not going to act like the previous stats mean all that much. At the very least, this ballpark shouldn't be subject to many external factors that would help the ball travel between the weather, dimensions and elevation.

The bigger factor that has me leaning to the Under is that George Kirby (8-5, 3.71 ERA) has been fantastic of late, pitching to a 2.32 ERA over his last nine starts, with seven of those being quality starts. He's facing a Mets team that's failed to win a series since the end of July, and in the rubber match here, I give the Mariners the upper hand thanks to Kirby being on the mound. Not only that, but the Mariners should have all three of their main high-leverage relievers available while the Mets are likely without closer Edwin Diaz, who worked two of the last three days and threw 30+ pitches across two innings yesterday. Seattle's bats get to see Clay Holmes, but I'm not sure just how long they will actually see him for, as Holmes was a reliever in previous seasons and his career-high 126 innings pitched is certainly a concern. He's missed recording 17 outs in 11 straight starts dating back to June 7, and he's been far less effective against right-handed hitters of late, allowing a .452 wOBA over the last month. I'm siding with the Mariners to take this game and win the series after it felt like it took all the Mets had to squeak by with a win on Saturday. 

Kirby has quietly been incredible against left-handed batters over the last month, bumping his swinging strike rate above 15% with a strikeout rate above 30%. He's not been a huge swing-and-miss guy in previous years, so the swinging strike rate is noteworthy, and I find it interesting that he's ditched the splitter in favor of more sliders and curveballs, which could do some damage against any lineup thanks to their whiff rates. Kirby is projected to see six left-handed batters, and if he's going to complete six innings again, we should have a good shot at a fifth strikeout. I wouldn't even be surprised if he exceeded expectations and went well Over his straight line of 5.5 thanks to the three generally tough left-handed bats atop the Mets order having seen their strikeout rates jump of late. 

Speaking of left-handed bats, Juan Soto has recorded a hit in 13 of 14 games in August, hitting .283 with five home runs over that stretch. It's a performance this offense desperately needed, and I'm backing him to continue the streak tonight with at least one hit. He's 3-for-3 in his light experience against Kirby, so at the very worst, he's enjoyed some success against the guy he likely gets three at-bats against before facing the studs in the bullpen. Kirby also doesn't walk many batters, which is something Soto loves to do. But something else Soto does is make a lot of contact on pitches in the strike zone. I'm backing Soto to take one of those pitches in the zone and deposit it into the outfield for a hit. This gets us to +300 odds and able to qualify for the boosts.