Inside the Lines Packers-Cowboys SNF cheat sheet: Take over, Jordan Love pass TDs and yards

The Inside the Lines team uses its proven NFL model to identify our best SportsLine player projections versus the best available odds to build our best bets.

By Stephen Oh

& Inside the Lines Team

Sep 24, 2025 at 10:44 am ET • 6 min read

Inside the Lines team

The SportsLine Projection Model was developed and powered by the Inside the Lines team. You can visit SportsLine for our model's main market bets (spread, total, money line) but if you are looking for ALL our personal best bets for free, check out our recently launched Inside the Lines blog. These are just a fraction of our best bets, which are all free on our new blog.

We will be providing our team's personal best bets for every NFL game during the 2025 season. We are coming off of a 23-13 +7.5 unit Week 3 in the NFL.

Here are our picks for Sunday Night Football, Green Bay Packers vs. Dallas Cowboys.

Over 47.5 (-105 DraftKings)

The bulk of the value driving this 60% over play is from Green Bay going over the 27.3 odds implied total. If Dallas' defense and the Browns defense were individuals discovered by paleontologists they would not be considered to be the same species. Russell Wilson was benched for a rookie 9 days after posting 450 yards and 3 touchdowns versus the Cowboys. The entire world did a 180 on Caleb Williams after he had his monster 300+ yard, 4 TD game.

Opposing QBs are throwing the ball versus Dallas as comfortably as they would at their Pro Day. Green Bay scored 27 in Week 1 and Week 2, so to think they won't significantly exceed 27 versus Dallas is unlikely. The Cowboys won't have CeeDee Lamb. but they still have George Pickens, who has had back-to-back 9 target, 5 reception, 68 yard, 1 TD stat lines. Jake Ferguson is TE1 in fantasy without scoring a TD with a massive 26 targets, 22 rec, and 160 yards the last two weeks alone. Javonte Williams looks like he did as a rookie in Denver. The Cowboys can score 21.

Jordan Love Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-118 BetMGM)

The -118 implies a 54% chance but with a 2.1 pass TD per sim projection we'd put those chances at nearly 70%. It's a small sample size but I do like our high success rate on passing props and on BetMGM this season to date.

The last time Love was in Dallas he had 3 passing TDs against a very good Cowboys defense in the playoffs. This line is set based on his production since '24 where he is 10-9 over 1.5 but, the Week 3 vs Cleveland aside, I see him playing much more like the QB he was in 2023, especially vs this Cowboys defense.

In 2023 he ended the season 10-1 over 1.5 passing TDs and started 5-0 in 2024 for a 15-1 stretch spanning parts of two seasons. If he had had a season ending injury on 10/20/2024 and this was his fourth game back, I believe the line would be set at 2.5 (+115 on the over) or -175 over 1.5.

Javonte Williams Anytime Touchdown +140 (DraftKings)

Our model would set this line at -120, so to get this much +EV is something we love. Williams scored twice in Week 1 and once in Week 2. He was terrible for a couple seasons in Denver after his serious injuries, but is currently averaging a career high 5.3 yards per carry (3.6 and 3.7 in '23 and '24) and it's not like he's doing it with a dominant offensive line that the Cowboys teams featuring a young Zeke Elliott were known for.

Rookie Jaydon Blue has yet to be activated. Miles Sanders has done well enough to hold off Blue as the backup RB but with his costly Week 1 fumble has done enough (bad) to not threaten Javonte for RB1 duties, especially on the goal line where Sanders has always seemingly struggled.

George Pickens Anytime Touchdown +155 (FanDuel)

I think there is a legit chance we get both he and Javonte to score for a big night. I also think this chance is higher than the chance we get shutout and go 0-2 on these props. The most likely scenario is 1-1 for either a +40 or +55, which we'll take.

Pickens may be in for Ceedee Lamb type targets (15+) especially if Green Bay is out in front by a wide margin. Jake Ferguson is getting a ton of usage in the middle of the field but is not a TD threat. Obviously most of his stats were accumulated in Pittsburgh but Pickens' % of team RECTDs is nearly 2x (36%) of what his % of team receptions are (18.5%).

Dak's FanDuel pass TD line is 1.5 (+114o, -152u) which implies right around 1.25 touchdowns. The +155 Fanduel is charging is fairly priced based Pickens' historical % of team RECTDs x Dake's projection. Our model leans over for Prescott. Ferguson only accounts for 7.2% of RECTDs, KeVontae Turpin 13.5%, Jalen Tolbert 17.5% and neither RB is even near 5%.

When you adjust for CeeDee's absence you can find that Pickens' 36% is close to 50% of who is available so for this game his model based line would be right around +100 (50%).

Props Cheat Sheet

The table below was updated on 9/24 at around 10 am EST so the lines may not match what you see above. If you're not feeling the picks above these are the ones that have projection value vs the best line / price. The projected value is in [brackets] and the sportsbook with the best line is in (parantheses). The cover rate since the start of 2024 and the current season are displayed.

What makes a bet an "Inside the Lines Best Bet?"

These are ones where:

1) Best Projection: Our SportsLine Model's projection shows clear value versus the line and we love certain statistical trends, X's and O's and subjective supporting data that supports our side but isn't directly factored into the model. For example, say we love a running back to go Over 14.5 carries and his backup is projected for 5.5 carries, but the backup is questionable and there's a chance he can be ruled out, which surely will change our projection to 16.5 (third-stringer gets 3.5) and the line would likely go from 12.5 to 15.5. If we have value on a side and the only unknown factors that will change are in our favor, we'll consider it our "Best Projection."

AND

2) Best Price: There is an outlier best price that we should take advantage of before it steams in "our direction." In most of these cases, the best-priced book is using "standard odds making logic" to set the line, but our team has identified a unique situation where standard odds rules don't apply. For example, maybe a player is -110 to throw an interception, but in his last three seasons he has averaged just 0.4 interceptions on the road compared to 0.7 at home because the team plays on a fast track at home and averages 5+ more pass attempts at home.

Step 1 provides greater accuracy and Step 2, especially when combined with a nice Profit Boost or Promotion, significantly lowers the bar for being profitable ... which is why we like to feature our best line sportsbooks offer.