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The New York Mets are clinging to a half-game lead in the NL East and Pete Alonso has been a big part of the organization's success so far. After the worst statistical season of his career in 2024, Alonso is slashing .269/.361/.510 with 22 home runs and 81 RBI entering a matchup with the Giants on Sunday Night Baseball. He's already ripped off 47 extra-base hits this season and has recorded 199 total bases in 105 games, yet you can still get as high as +135 on Alonso to record over 1.5 total bases tonight.

That's one of our top MLB player props on Sunday, along with plays on Phillies designated hitter Kyle Schwarber and Tigers starting pitcher Jack Flaherty. Targeting MLB player props is a great way to find value while MLB betting at online sports betting sites. With MLB props available for almost every player in every game at sportsbooks, SportsLine's proven computer model can help you find value to add to your MLB prop picks. They can also help new users take advantage of sportsbook promos like the latest Fanatics Sportsbook promo code, where new users can get up to $1,000 in No Sweat Bets.

The model simulates every game 10,000 times and is on a 46-43 run on all top-rated MLB picks. The model is up nearly 47 units on home run prop picks this season. Now, the model and SportsLine's team of Data Scientists have revealed their projections for some of the most-bet MLB player props on Sunday.

Best Sunday MLB player prop picks:

Pete Alonso, Mets, Over 1.5 total bases (+135)

Alonso is only 1-for-8 so far in the series, but he's only struck out once and has put five balls in play with an exit velocity of at least 94 mph, so he's making good contact. He's 91st percentile or better among MLB hitters in eight different critical categories according to MLB Statcast, including average exit velocity (94.0 mph), expected slugging (.605), barrel rate (20.0%) and bat speed (75.9 mph). The model predicts that Alonso finishes with 2.1 total bases on average against the Giants on Sunday.

Jack Flaherty, Tigers, Over 5.5 strikeouts (+125)

Flaherty has recorded at least six strikeouts in each of his last five starts entering Sunday, including recording six strikeouts in his last outing despite only lasting three innings. His 4.77 ERA isn't stellar, but he does have 130 total strikeouts this season in 103 2/3 innings, so he doesn't necessarily need to work deep into a game to hit this number. He also recorded a win over the Blue Jays on May 16, where he allowed two earned runs over 5 2/3 innings and struck out six. The model predicts he records six on average today at home.

Kyle Schwarber, Phillies, Over 1.5 total bases (+120)

The Phillies have scored 21 runs over their first two games of the series against the Yankees, and Schwarber has been a linchpin of that offensive barrage. He's 5-for-10 with two home runs and a double in those contests and is 8-for-19 with four homers during a current four-game hitting streak. His 60.2% hard-hit contact rate is 100th percentile among MLB hitters this season, and his current .962 OPS would be a career-high. The model predicts that he finishes with 2.2 total bases on average against New York on Sunday.

Want more MLB player prop picks for Sunday?

You've seen the model's MLB picks for some popular player props on Sunday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.

Also at SportsLine:

You can also see Jacob Fetner's and the Inside the Lines team's best bets for Sunday. Finally, SportsLine expert Bruce Marshall, who is 65-54-1 (+1683) over his last 120 MLB picks, has his MLB best bets locked in for Sunday. Visit SportsLine to see his best plays for today.