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The Seattle Mariners extended their winning streak to five games on Friday night when catcher Cal Raleigh hit his MLB-leading 43rd home run in the eighth inning of a 3-2 win over Tampa Bay. Raleigh erased Seattle's two-run deficit with the three-run bomb, which was his first homer since July 31. He holds a two-homer lead over Phillies slugger Kyle Schwarber, who hit his 41st homer on Friday. Raleigh, who faces Tampa Bay at 9:40 p.m. ET on Saturday, is +285 to go yard in the Saturday MLB odds, and that is one of the MLB props that SportsLine's model is targeting.  

The model has also identified value on Oneil Cruz to steal a base (+370) and Michael King to go over 5.5 strikeouts (+100). When it comes to MLB betting, MLB player props are a great way to find value at online sports betting sites. With MLB props available for almost every player in every game at sportsbooks, SportsLine's proven computer model can help you find value to add to your MLB prop picks. They can also help new users take advantage of the best sportsbook promos like the latest Fanatics Sportsbook promo code, where new users can get 10x $100 No Sweat Bets in FanCash:

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It entered Week 20 of the 2025 MLB season a profitable 28-23 on top-rated MLB money-line picks. It has excelled in making home run prop picks this season, returning nearly 50 units of profit. Anybody following its MLB picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns. Also, be sure to see the model's top picks for Braves vs. Marlins and Phillies vs. Rangers and top MLB home run picks.

Best Saturday MLB player prop picks:

Cal Raleigh, Mariners, over 0.5 home runs (+285)

Raleigh has homered in back-to-back games four times since the middle of June, and he will be swinging a confident bat on Saturday after his game-winning homer on Friday. The 28-year-old is up to a league-leading 43 homers overall this season. Rays starting pitcher Joe Boyle has a 2.30 ERA in seven appearances (three starts) this year, but he posted a 6.42 ERA across 10 starts with the Athletics last season. SportsLine's model has Raleigh's home run odds at +224 on Saturday, creating value at +285. This prop is available at FanDuel, where you can get $150 in bonus bets if your first $5 bet wins. 

Oneil Cruz, Pirates, over 0.5 stolen bases (+370)

Cruz has gone 13 games without stealing a base, which has led to an inflated price on Saturday. He stole 34 bases in his first 87 starts of the season, providing some immediate value at +370. Cruz is facing Reds starting pitcher Nick Martinez, who is 9-9 with a 4.66 ERA this season. Pittsburgh's center fielder still ranks second in the majors in stolen bases, despite his lengthy drought. 

Michael King, Padres, over 5.5 strikeouts (+100)

King (shoulder) is returning from the 60-day injured list on Saturday night, getting set for his first start since May 18 following right shoulder thoracic nerve impingement. He made a rehab start last weekend with Triple-A El Paso, striking out five batters across 3.1 innings. King threw 61 pitches and felt healthy after the appearance, which are both good signs heading into this start. The model has King racking up 6.46 strikeouts on Saturday, making the Over a valuable wager.  

MLB HR, stolen base, strikeouts prop cheat sheet

The SportsLine Model was developed and is powered by the Inside the Lines team. You can find all of the team's picks and content at our blog, which has all our personal best bets for free. The system is simple. We take the strongest SportsLine Model projected values vs the best available prices at the time we publish our content. In most cases, lines move in 'our direction' so you should bookmark the blog, follow us on social, and make it a habit of checking for updates throughout the day to maximize your expected value. 

The table below shows today's projected leading Home Run, Stolen Base and Strikeout Leaders. We include the projection and for HRs and SBs the money line we'd set for YES HR/SB. You can use this cheat sheet to compare it to your book's line and if your book's line is significantly higher than ours (and you like the player) then you would want to consider that bet. 

Yesterday, we successfully backed Brandon Woodruff and faded Tarik Skubal's strikeouts.

Today our #1 projected strikeout pitcher is San Diego's Michael King at 6.5 who faces Boston at home. You can get the over at +100 on both Fanatics and Hard Rock. King only averages 3.7 Ks on the road, but at home he's a beast with a 7.6 average (6-1 over 5.5). He has 8 in his last 2 outings. He only has gone more than 5.2 innings once in his recent 6-1 stretch which ironically was his 1 under (road game at NY).

Both Jose Ramirez and Oneil Cruz are +223 on Stolen Bases. Ramirez is on a 6 SB-less game while Cruz has an even longer stretch without a stolen base (up to 13 games). Markets still believe in Ramirez and the best price on him to have an SB is just +185 on Fanatics (down to +155 on Hard Rock) so at +223 in our model there is no value. 

Cruz is still 2nd in the league in SB despite this stretch and perhaps it'll be 'lucky #14' and he'll swipe a base or two. The +370 value that FanDuel is offering is nearly +150 ML units of value and too much to pass up. Our model line of +223 implies 31% which is well over the 22% that +370 implies.

RANKHRSBK
8/9PLAYER | HR PROJ | PROP LINEPLAYER | SB PROJ | PROP LINESTARTER | K PROJ
1Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.364 | +175Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.379 | +164Michael King (SD) | 6.46
2Nick Kurtz (ATH) | 0.335 | +199Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.31 | +223Framber Valdez (HOU) | 6.34
3Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.309 | +224Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.31 | +223Jesus Luzardo (PHI) | 6.33
4Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.308 | +225Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) | 0.305 | +228Joey Cantillo (CLE) | 6.21
5Shohei Ohtani (LAD) | 0.273 | +266Esteury Ruiz (LAD) | 0.281 | +256Blake Snell (LAD) | 6.17
6George Springer (TOR) | 0.271 | +269Chandler Simpson (TB) | 0.276 | +262Yusei Kikuchi (LAA) | 6.1
7Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.266 | +276Bobby Witt (KC) | 0.274 | +265Jacob deGrom (TEX) | 6.01
8Junior Caminero (TB) | 0.264 | +279Luis Robert (CHW) | 0.259 | +286Chris Bassitt (TOR) | 5.74
9Ketel Marte (ARI) | 0.263 | +280Victor Scott (STL) | 0.252 | +297Charlie Morton (DET) | 5.43
10Kyle Stowers (MIA) | 0.261 | +283Xavier Edwards (MIA) | 0.251 | +298Luis Gil (NYY) | 5.27
11Brent Rooker (ATH) | 0.248 | +303Zach Neto (LAA) | 0.243 | +312Eduardo Rodriguez (ARI) | 5.23
12Tyler Soderstrom (ATH) | 0.236 | +324Jose Caballero (NYY) | 0.23 | +335Noah Cameron (KC) | 5.23
13Juan Soto (NYM) | 0.232 | +331Brice Turang (MIL) | 0.229 | +337Jack Perkins (ATH) | 5.16
14Mike Trout (LAA) | 0.23 | +335Corbin Carroll (ARI) | 0.226 | +342Lucas Giolito (BOS) | 5.06
15Spencer Torkelson (DET) | 0.225 | +344Maikel Garcia (KC) | 0.219 | +357Nick Martinez (CIN) | 5.01
16Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.225 | +344David Hamilton (BOS) | 0.207 | +383Bailey Ober (MIN) | 4.99
17Bobby Witt (KC) | 0.225 | +344Ha-seong Kim (TB) | 0.204 | +390Ryan Gusto (MIA) | 4.98
18Brandon Lowe (TB) | 0.219 | +357Jarren Duran (BOS) | 0.203 | +393Brandon Young (BAL) | 4.91
19Shea Langeliers (ATH) | 0.219 | +357Kyle Tucker (CHC) | 0.199 | +403Francellis Montas (NYM) | 4.7
20Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.217 | +361CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.198 | +405Joe Boyle (TB) | 4.69
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More MLB picks for Saturday

You've seen the model's MLB props for several players on Saturday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.

Need more from SportsLine? See today's best MLB picks from SportsLine's Bruce Marshall, who is on an 84-79-1 roll (+1154) on MLB picks.