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There are still multiple games remaining on Thursday's MLB schedule, and those interested in MLB betting and prop betting for home runs should see what SportsLine expert Jacob Fetner is targeting for his best home run prop picks. Fetner was up 50 units on his home run picks last year and he was able to cash on Pirates second baseman Brandon Lowe to go yard in both Monday's win over the Nationals and again in Tuesday's win over the Nationals. He is up 1.6 units so far this week, and he has revealed three MLB prop bets for Thursday. 

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Best Home Run picks for Thursday

  • William Contreras, Brewers (+640)
  • Nick Kurtz, Athletics (+444)
  • Mickey Moniak, Rockies (+420)

William Contreras, Brewers (+640, DraftKings)

"William Contreras is hitting .243 with a .723 OPS against left-handed pitchers over the past year, with 5 HR in 213 PA. He's hitting .274 with a .815 OPS at home over the past year, compared to .247 and .694 on the road. He has homered twice over his last 10 home games," Fetner said. "Patrick Corbin has given up 18 of his 23 home runs over the past year to right-handed batters. Right-handed batters are hitting .281 with a .791 OPS against Patrick Corbin over the past year (vs. a .673 OPS against left-handed batters). The park is playing hitter-friendly today with a home run index of 7 out of 10. We set William Contreras's line at +618 to homer."

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Nick Kurtz, Athletics (+444, DraftKings)

"We set Nick Kurtz's line at +452 to homer," Fetner said. "Nick Kurtz has the platoon advantage against right-handed Jack Leiter. Kurtz is batting .312 with a 1.075 OPS vs RHP dating back to last season, with 28 of his 37 home runs against RHPs. Nick Kurtz has been more dangerous at home dating back to last season, with 22 HR in 271 PA and a .993 OPS (vs .901 OPS on the road). Jack Leiter has allowed 7 HR over his last 8 starts on the road.  Jack Leiter allows 1.12 HR per 9 innings at home vs 1.22 on the road. Nick Kurtz has 3 AB vs Jack Leiter: 2 hits, 1 HR, 2 BB, 1 K, which indicates he has seen him well. We are right in line with Vegas' line here, but Kurtz' historical success against RHPs and Leiter makes this worth the play."

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Mickey Moniak, Rockies (+420, FanDuel)

"Mickey Moniak is hitting .277 with a .870 OPS against right-handed pitchers over the past year, with 28 of his 29 home runs coming off RHPs," Fetner said. "JP France has a 5.12 career ERA when pitching at home, and left-handed batters have a solid .741 OPS against him. The home run index is an 8 out of 10, adding another layer to the case. We set Mickey Moniak's line at +337 to homer."

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