Free MLB home run picks and Playoff futures: Machado HR Value, Cubs take Game 1, Pivetta Over 4.5 Strikeouts
The Inside the Lines team has been dishing out nightly home run bets all season long -- up nearly 40 units on the year. For more free daily picks across all sports, visit the Inside the Lines blog.
For more real-time, free picks every day: Inside the Lines Blog.
Best Home Run Bets for 9/30
Do you know how impressive it is to finish near +40 units DESPITE a 2+ week stretch without a correct HR bet? That's just how powerful our Inside the Lines system was this season.
Manny Machado (SD) +485, DraftKings
Machado is a solid 5-13 in his career against Matt Boyd, and while he doesn't have a home run against Boyd, Machado does have two doubles against him. Boyd has allowed 19 Home Runs this season, and 17 of those were hit by right-handed hitters. Despite having a 2.51 home ERA compared to a 3.90 road ERA, Boyd actually has a higher HR/9 allowed at home this season than on the road. Machado has 13 HRs in 47 games this season when the opposing starter is left-handed compared to 14 HRs in 112 starts when the opposing starter is a righty. We set Machado's line at +345 to homer today.
Best Main Market Bet
Chicago Cubs ML (-122, FanDuel) vs. San Diego Padres
This may seem counterintuitive to the Machado play, but we like the Cubs value at home. The Cubs are 12-3 when Matt Boyd starts at home compared to just 4-12 when he starts on the road. Nick Pivetta has a 3.55 ERA on the road and a 5-4 record compared to an 8-1 record and a 2.36 home ERA. The biggest reason we like the Cubs is their 50-31 home record this season and the Padres' 38-43 road record. Wrigley will be pumping today, and the Cubs have a huge home field advantage with a pitcher that thrives at home on the mound.
Best Player Props
Nick Pivetta (SD) Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-145, BetMGM)
Pivetta is 25-6 on the over this season and 9-1 in his last 10 games. Pivetta is 12-2 on the over in 14 road starts this season, and we have him with 6.2 strikeouts in the Inside the Lines Model.
Parker Meadows (DET) U 0.5 Run Scored (-176, DraftKings)
Meadows has gone under this line in 41 of his 55 games started this season (about 75%). He has gone under in 16 of his last 20 games played including 9 of his last 10 games. He is 7-1 on the under against the Guardians this season, and we would set his line at around -250 today.
Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) U 1.5 Bases (-170, Fanatics)
You have to figure Goldschmidt will start over Ben Rice given his experience and defensive advantage. Goldschmidt has notoriously been good against left-handed pitchers, but he has struggled over the last month plus. According to Katie Sharp, since August 7th Goldschmidt is just 7-48 with one extra base hit against LHPs. Goldschmidt is also just 2-15 with two singles in his career against Garrett Crochet. Goldschmidt is 17-3 on the under in his last 20 games.
2025 MLB Playoffs Best Bets
Wild Card Round
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers Over 2.5 Series Games (-110, DraftKings)
The Guardians had a historic comeback to win the AL Central, while the Tigers had a historic collapse, but the Tigers have Cy Young Winner Tarik Skubal on the mound while the Guardians don't. These are two evenly matched teams according to our Inside the Lines Model, so we think if the Tigers win Game 1, there's a good chance the Guardians take Game 2.
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Over 2.5 Series Games (-105, DraftKings)
This is another matchup where the home team (Yankees) are coming in hot and have been playing strong baseball, but the road team has pitching advantage. The Red Sox went 4-0 against the Yankees this season when Garrett Crochet was on the mound, and while Yankees' starter Max Fried had solid numbers against the Red Sox, he did allow them to hit .278. If the Red Sox win Game 1, we think there is a strong chance this gets to Game 3.
Chicago Cubs to Win Series vs. San Diego Padres (-125, DraftKings)
This play has almost everything to do with home/road splits. The Cubs are 50-31 at home this season, while the Padres are 38-43 on the road. Wrigleyville will be pumping during the playoffs, and the Cubs have a huge home advantage, which we think helps offset the loss of stud pitcher Cade Horton for this series. We set the line closer to -180 for the Cubs to take this series.
American League
Seattle Mariners to Win the AL (+200, FanDuel)
The Mariners currently have the most favorable path to the WS, as they have a first round bye then get the winner of Cleveland/Detroit in the ALDS and have home field advantage. Getting +200 here is good value, as you can likely hedge if they make the ALCS and still be profitable. The Mariners have the best rotation in the AL, while they revamped their lineup before the trade deadline.
| SEED | AL | WC | LDS | AL ODDS | WIN AL | WS ODDS | WIN WS |
| 1 | Toronto Blue Jays | 100.0% | 40.3% | +280 (26.3%) | 19.1% | +850 (10.5%) | 8.1% |
| 2 | Seattle Mariners | 100.0% | 64.6% | +200 (33.3%) | 35.3% | +500 (16.7%) | 18.4% |
| 3 | Cleveland Guardians | 51.5% | 15.9% | +900 (10%) | 5.3% | +2200 (4.3%) | 1.7% |
| 4 | New York Yankees | 69.3% | 45.2% | +400 (20%) | 26.8% | +850 (10.5%) | 16.0% |
| 5 | Boston Red Sox | 30.7% | 14.6% | +750 (11.8%) | 6.2% | +1900 (5%) | 2.3% |
| 6 | Detroit Tigers | 48.5% | 19.6% | +850 (10.5%) | 7.4% | +2000 (4.8%) | 3.0% |
| SEED | NL | WC | LDS | NL ODDS | WIN NL | WS ODDS | WIN WS |
| 1 | Milwaukee Brewers | 100.0% | 48.1% | +370 (21.3%) | 21.5% | +850 (10.5%) | 10.0% |
| 2 | Philadelphia Phillies | 100.0% | 51.0% | +200 (33.3%) | 28.7% | +410 (19.6%) | 14.8% |
| 3 | Los Angeles Dodgers | 64.1% | 36.1% | +290 (25.6%) | 23.0% | +500 (16.7%) | 13.6% |
| 4 | Chicago Cubs | 63.7% | 34.5% | +650 (13.3%) | 15.2% | +1300 (7.1%) | 7.6% |
| 5 | San Diego Padres | 36.3% | 17.4% | +700 (12.5%) | 6.4% | +1400 (6.7%) | 2.9% |
| 6 | Cincinnati Reds | 35.9% | 12.9% | +1500 (6.2%) | 5.3% | +3000 (3.2%) | 1.7% |
| NEW YORK VS BOSTON | SIM% | FD | FD% | VALUE |
| NEW YORK YANKEES | 69.3% | -188 | 65.3% | 4.0% |
| BOSTON RED SOX | 30.7% | +152 | 39.7% | -9.0% |
| CLEVELAND VS DETROIT | SIM% | FD | FD% | VALUE |
| CLEVELAND GUARDIANS | 51.5% | -106 | 51.5% | 0.0% |
| DETROIT TIGERS | 48.5% | -114 | 53.3% | -4.8% |
| LOS ANGELES VS CINCINNATI | SIM% | FD | FD% | VALUE |
| LA DODGERS | 64.1% | -245 | 71.0% | -6.9% |
| CINCINNATI REDS | 35.9% | +190 | 34.5% | 1.4% |
| CHICAGO VS SAN DIEGO | SIM% | FD | FD% | VALUE |
| CHICAGO CUBS | 63.7% | -128 | 56.1% | 7.6% |
| SAN DIEGO PADRES | 36.3% | +104 | 49.0% | -12.7% |
Where to bet MLB props for the Playoffs
Here is a look at betting sites that will offer MLB HR props on Sunday:
| Sportsbook | Bonus offer | Promo code |
|---|---|---|
Caesars | ||
BetMGM | ||
FanDuel | ||
DraftKings | Bet $5, Get $200 in bonus bets instantly and $200 off NFL Sunday Ticket | |
Fanatics | Get $100 FanCash + up to $100 No Sweat Bet in FanCash on every Game Day | |
bet365 | Bet $5, Get $300 in bonus bets win or lose | CBSBET365 |
More MLB picks
You've seen the model's MLB HR prop picks for several teams. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
Need more from SportsLine? See today's best MLB picks from SportsLine's Angelo Magliocca, who is on an 84-62-1 roll (+1629) on MLB picks.
