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The Chicago Cubs are off to a poor start in August, losing for the sixth time in their last nine games when they fell to Toronto in a 5-1 final on Tuesday. Cubs star outfielder Pete Crow-Armstrong went hitless for the seventh time during that nine-game stretch, but he is still batting .257 with 27 homers this season. He is facing Blue Jays starting pitcher Kevin Gausman, who allowed five earned runs against the Royals at the beginning of the month. Crow-Armstrong has stolen 30 bases this season, and SportsLine's Inside the Lines team is backing Crow-Armstrong to steal a base on Wednesday at +270 odds. 

Other MLB prop bets to back at Fanatics Sportsbook on Wednesday include Eugenio Suarez to homer (+380) and Hunter Brown to go under 6.5 strikeouts (-110). When it comes to MLB betting, our model can help new users take advantage of the best sportsbook promos like the latest Fanatics promo code, which awards new users up to $1,000 back in FanCash in your first 10 days with an account:

Best Wednesday MLB player prop picks:

  • Eugenio Suarez, Mariners, over 0.5 home runs (+380 at Fanatics). 
  • Pete Crow-Armstrong, Cubs, over 0.5 stolen bases (+270 at Fanatics). 
  • Hunter Brown, Astros, under 6.5 strikeouts (-110 at Fanatics). 

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The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It enters Week 21 of the 2025 MLB season a profitable 31-23 on top-rated MLB money-line picks. It has excelled in making home run prop picks this season, returning nearly 60 units of profit. Anybody following its MLB betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns.

Eugenio Suarez, Mariners, over 0.5 home runs (+380)

Suarez hit his first homer with the Mariners last Tuesday against the White Sox after hitting 36 homers for Arizona before switching teams. The third baseman ranks fifth in the majors in home runs this season, trailing only sluggers Cal Raleigh, Shohei Ohtani, Kyle Schwarber and Aaron Judge. He has a difficult matchup against Orioles starting pitcher Trevor Rogers, who has a 1.44 ERA across 10 starts. However, Suarez has the highest home run projection of the day with a model line of +131, and you can find this +380 price at Fanatics and also use the latest Fanatics promo code, offering up to $1,000 back in FanCash with your first 10 bets

Pete Crow-Armstrong, Cubs, over 0.5 stolen bases (+270)

While Crow-Armstrong is in a bit of a slump, he still ranks second on the team in hits (116) and holds the lead for stolen bases (30). He got on base against St. Louis on Sunday, swiping a bag in that game. Given the talent that he has put on display this season, he is not going to stay in a slump much longer. The model has Crow-Armstrong's stolen base odds at +245, which creates value at +270. Bet on Crow-Armstrong to steal a base at Fanatics, where new users can get up to ten $100 No Sweat Bets in FanCash if your bets lose

Hunter Brown, Astros, under 6.5 strikeouts (-110)

Brown has been Houston's best starting pitcher this season, entering Wednesday's start with a 9-5 record and 2.51 ERA. He has not been striking out many batters lately though, going under 6.5 strikeouts in three straight appearances. The 26-year-old just faced Boston on Aug. 1, when he struck out six batters across seven innings. He is facing them again on Wednesday, giving an advantage to the Red Sox lineup, and the model has Brown finishing with 5.92 strikeouts. Bet this MLB prop at Fanatics, where new users can get up to $1,000 back in FanCash if their first bets lose

MLB Home Run, Stolen Base, Strikeout Cheat Sheet

The SportsLine Model was developed and is powered by the Inside the Lines team. You can find all of the team's picks and content at our blog, which has all our personal best bets for free. The system is simple. We take the strongest SportsLine Model projected values vs the best available prices at the time we publish our content. In most cases, lines move in 'our direction' so you should bookmark the blog, follow us on social, and make it a habit of checking for updates throughout the day to maximize your expected value. 

The table below shows today's projected leading Home Run, Stolen Base and Strikeout Leaders. We include the projection and for HRs and SBs the money line we'd set for YES HR/SB. You can use this cheat sheet to compare it to your book's line and if your book's line is significantly higher than ours (and you like the player) then you would want to consider that bet.

Just 5 days ago we cruised to an easy over 5.5 Ks for Brandon Woodruff at -155. With the Brewers rolling and Woodruff averaging 7.5 Ks in 6 starts since missing over a season the best line on major books is all the way up to 7.5 and at -142 (FanDuel) our 6.94 projection has no value. 

I do see Nick Pivetta over 5.5 Ks early Wed am available at -125 on both Fanatics and Hard Rock. His line is low because he averages 5.6 Ks and is 4-6 over this line in road starts (solid 6.4, 8-5 at home) and has had 4 straight unders. But prior to this stretch he was on a 5-1 over stretch averaging over 7 Ks per start. He looks to be in a good buy low spot with the Giants struggling offensively scoring 2, 0, 1, and 1 runs coming into this game.

RANKHRSBK
8/13PLAYER | HR PROJ | PROP LINEPLAYER | SB PROJ | PROP LINESTARTER | K PROJ
1Eugenio Suarez (SEA) | 0.433 | +131Chandler Simpson (TB) | 0.322 | +211Logan Gilbert (SEA) | 6.98
2Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.347 | +188Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) | 0.29 | +245Brandon Woodruff (MIL) | 6.94
3Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.325 | +208Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.283 | +253Hunter Greene (CIN) | 6.58
4Shohei Ohtani (LAD) | 0.301 | +232Luis Robert (CHW) | 0.267 | +275Joe Ryan (MIN) | 6.46
5Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.292 | +242Bobby Witt (KC) | 0.266 | +276Nick Pivetta (SD) | 6.44
6Junior Caminero (TB) | 0.287 | +248Jose Caballero (NYY) | 0.265 | +277Cristopher Sanchez (PHI) | 6.1
7Nick Kurtz (ATH) | 0.284 | +252Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.26 | +285Hunter Brown (HOU) | 5.92
8Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.28 | +257Xavier Edwards (MIA) | 0.239 | +318Kevin Gausman (TOR) | 5.84
9Riley Greene (DET) | 0.255 | +292Ha-seong Kim (TB) | 0.237 | +322Zac Gallen (ARI) | 5.72
10Brandon Lowe (TB) | 0.239 | +318CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.235 | +326J.T. Ginn (ATH) | 5.29
11Ketel Marte (ARI) | 0.239 | +318Zach Neto (LAA) | 0.232 | +331David Peterson (NYM) | 5.04
12Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.237 | +322Shohei Ohtani (LAD) | 0.222 | +350Seth Lugo (KC) | 5.04
13Kyle Stowers (MIA) | 0.235 | +326Maikel Garcia (KC) | 0.22 | +355Eury Perez (MIA) | 5.04
14Kerry Carpenter (DET) | 0.234 | +327Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.219 | +357Merrill Kelly (TEX) | 5.02
15Mike Trout (LAA) | 0.229 | +337Brice Turang (MIL) | 0.213 | +369Mitch Keller (PIT) | 4.99
16Matt Wallner (MIN) | 0.228 | +339Randy Arozarena (SEA) | 0.212 | +372Trevor Rogers (BAL) | 4.98
17Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.227 | +341David Hamilton (BOS) | 0.209 | +378Cam Schlittler (NYY) | 4.98
18Randy Arozarena (SEA) | 0.227 | +341Jarren Duran (BOS) | 0.206 | +385Gavin Williams (CLE) | 4.89
19Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 0.224 | +346Corbin Carroll (ARI) | 0.202 | +395Kai-Wei Teng (SF) | 4.72
20Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.222 | +350Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.201 | +398Shane Smith (CHW) | 4.65

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