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The Braves are in the midst of a disappointing season, but they have a chance to play spoiler against the NL East rival New York Mets on Tuesday. The Mets are fighting for a playoff spot but have lost 11 of their last 12 games. On Tuesday, the Braves will send right-hander Spencer Strider (5-9, 4.04 ERA) to the mound. Strider gave up 11 hits in just 4.2 innings of work in his last outing, but also recorded six strikeouts against the Brewers. Strider has now recorded six or more strikeouts in five of his last six starts. He is -115 to finish with over 6.5 strikeouts against the Mets on Tuesday, which is one of the MLB props that SportsLine's Inside the Lines team is targeting. 

Other MLB prop bets to back at BetMGM Sportsbook on Tuesday include Oneil Cruz to steal a base (+275) and Kerry Carpenter to hit a home run (+300). When it comes to MLB betting, our model can help new users take advantage of the best sportsbook promos like the latest BetMGM bonus code CBSSPORTS, which awards new users up to $1,500 back in bonus bets if your first bet loses:

Best Tuesday MLB player prop picks:

  • Oneil Cruz, Pirates, over 0.5 stolen bases (+275 at BetMGM). 
  • Kerry Carpenter, Tigers, over 0.5 home runs (+300 at BetMGM). 
  • Spener Strider, Braves, over 6.5 strikeouts (-115 at BetMGM). 

Bet these MLB props at BetMGM and get up to $1,500 in bonus bets if your first bet loses:

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It enters Week 21 of the 2025 MLB season a profitable 31-23 on top-rated MLB money-line picks. It has excelled in making home run prop picks this season, returning nearly 60 units of profit. Anybody following its MLB betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns.

Oneil Cruz, Pirates, over 0.5 stolen bases (+275)

Cruz ranks second in the majors with 34 stolen bases this season, but his last successful stolen base came on July 25th. Cruz has recorded a hit in three of his last four games, so he's giving himself opportunities to swipe a bag consistently. On Tuesday, Cruz and the Pirates will face Freddy Peralta and the Milwaukee Brewers. Peralta has struggled with walks in recent weeks, walking 12 batters in his last four starts, and gave up seven hits in his last outing against Pittsburgh. Cruz has the third-highest stolen base projection with a model line of +250, but you can find this price at BetMGM and also use the latest BetMGM bonus code, offering up to $1,500 back in bonus bets if first bet loses

Kerry Carpenter, Tigers, over 0.5 home runs (+300)

Carpenter went 2-for-4 with a double, a home run, two total runs scored and four RBI in Sunday's 9-5 win over the Angels. Carpenter has been productive at the plate in August, as he's batting .276 with four home runs and 10 RBI across 10 games this month. On Tuesday, Carperter and the Tigers take on the Chicago White Sox, a pitching staff that ranks 19th in the MLB with a 4.14 ERA. Bet on Carpenter to homer at BetMGM, where new users can get up to $1,500 back in bonus bets if  first bet loses

Spencer Strider, Braves, over 6.5 strikeouts (-115)

Strider is at the top of the strikeout projections list despite averaging one less (6.0) in road starts vs. home and coming in under 6.5 strikeouts in his last two outings. However, Strider has had success against the Mets this season. In fact, Strider has recorded 16 K's in two starts against New York in 2025, giving up just seven hits and four earned runs across 11 innings. The model is predicting that Strider finishes with 7.19 strikeouts on average, creating value on the over. Bet this MLB prop at BetMGM, where new users can get up to $1,500 back in bonus bets if their first bet loses

MLB HR, stolen base, strikeouts prop cheat sheet

The SportsLine Model was developed and is powered by the Inside the Lines team. You can find all of the team's picks and content at our blog, which has all our personal best bets for free. The system is simple. We take the strongest SportsLine Model projected values vs the best available prices at the time we publish our content. In most cases, lines move in 'our direction' so you should bookmark the blog, follow us on social, and make it a habit of checking for updates throughout the day to maximize your expected value. 

The table below shows today's projected leading Home Run, Stolen Base and Strikeout Leaders. We include the projection and for HRs and SBs the money line we'd set for YES HR/SB. You can use this cheat sheet to compare it to your book's line and if your book's line is significantly higher than ours (and you like the player) then you would want to consider that bet.

Spencer Strider is at the top of the strikeout projections list despite averaging 1 less (6.0) in road starts vs home and coming in under 6.5 his last 2 outings. Perhaps that means he's due. If you like over 6.5 the best price is Hard Rock at -115. 

Talking about 'he's due' there's Oneil Cruz and his 3rd highest stolen base projection with a model line of +250. He has not stolen a base in his last 15 despite our liking (and losing on) his value for several of his last few games. There is a wide range of prices on him to have a SB with Fanatics offering just +270, but FanDuel all the way up to +410 due to this drought.

RANKHRSBK
8/12PLAYER | HR PROJ | PROP LINEPLAYER | SB PROJ | PROP LINESTARTER | K PROJ
1Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.363 | +175Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) | 0.293 | +241Spencer Strider (ATL) | 7.19
2Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.343 | +192Jose Caballero (NYY) | 0.288 | +247Paul Skenes (PIT) | 6.93
3Shohei Ohtani (LAD) | 0.326 | +207Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.286 | +250Jack Flaherty (DET) | 6.56
4Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.291 | +244Luis Robert (CHW) | 0.275 | +264Freddy Peralta (MIL) | 6.08
5Riley Greene (DET) | 0.284 | +252Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.266 | +276Carlos Rodon (NYY) | 6.04
6Nick Kurtz (ATH) | 0.283 | +253Shohei Ohtani (LAD) | 0.244 | +310George Kirby (SEA) | 5.89
7Kerry Carpenter (DET) | 0.26 | +285CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.242 | +313Robbie Ray (SF) | 5.89
8Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.245 | +308Zach Neto (LAA) | 0.231 | +333Jacob Lopez (ATH) | 5.8
9Eugenio Suarez (SEA) | 0.241 | +315Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.22 | +355Shane Baz (TB) | 5.78
10Mike Trout (LAA) | 0.234 | +327David Hamilton (BOS) | 0.219 | +357Ranger Suarez (PHI) | 5.6
11Ketel Marte (ARI) | 0.232 | +331Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.218 | +359Ben Brown (CHC) | 5.59
12Jasrado Chisholm (NYY) | 0.228 | +339Jarren Duran (BOS) | 0.216 | +363Spencer Arrighetti (HOU) | 5.52
13Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.226 | +342Brice Turang (MIL) | 0.211 | +374Emmet Sheehan (LAD) | 5.25
14Corey Seager (TEX) | 0.224 | +346Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 0.205 | +388Dustin May (BOS) | 5.11
15Juan Soto (NYM) | 0.224 | +346Jasrado Chisholm (NYY) | 0.202 | +395Brady Singer (CIN) | 5.02
16Manny Machado (SD) | 0.223 | +348Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.2 | +400Dean Kremer (BAL) | 5.02
17Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.223 | +348Dylan Crews (WAS) | 0.199 | +403Victor Mederos (LAA) | 5.01
18Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) | 0.222 | +350Kyle Tucker (CHC) | 0.195 | +413Nestor Cortes (SD) | 4.99
19Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.221 | +352Andres Gimenez (TOR) | 0.191 | +424Michael Wacha (KC) | 4.71
20Brent Rooker (ATH) | 0.219 | +357Xander Bogaerts (SD) | 0.19 | +426Jose Berrios (TOR) | 4.7

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