Fourth of July best MLB pitcher strikeout props: Fade Dodgers starter against Astros at plus odds

Two of the best teams in baseball begin a three-game series when the Los Angeles Dodgers and Houston Astros collide on the Fourth of July at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles. The Dodgers (56-32) own the best record in the majors and lead the National League West by nine games. Meanwhile the Astros (52-35) have the second best record in the American League and lead the AL West by seven games.

Ben Casparius (6-2, 3.97 ERA) is set to start for Los Angeles. Meanwhile veteran Lance McCullers Jr. (1-3, 6.61) is scheduled to take the mound for Houston.

The top sportsbooks have set Casparius' total strikeout player prop at 3.5, while McCullers' is 4.5. The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, rates Casparius Under 3.5 (+113) as a 5-star play on its 5-star scale, the only 5-star play on the Fourth of July. McCullers Over 4.5 (+112) is a 4.5-star play.

However, the model has found additional value elsewhere on Friday's 15-game schedule. In addition to Casparius Under 3.5, there are two pitcher strikeout player props that the model has rated at 4.5 stars. Check out today's MLB strikeout props:

Kyle Hendricks Over 2.5 strikeouts (-111) vs. Blue Jays (7:07 p.m. ET)

Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 3.7 strikeouts

This is a more-than-reasonable total for the Angels veteran righty. Hendricks (5-6, 4.66) has gone Over 2.5 strikeouts in 12 of 16 starts this season. In his most recent road start, he struck out nine in 6 shutout innings against the Yankees. Hendricks has never been a big strikeout pitcher over his career, but his 16.2 strikeout percentage this season is his best since the 2022 season. 

Charlie Morton Over 4.5 strikeouts (-128) vs. Braves (7:15 p.m. ET)

Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 5.4 strikeouts

The 41-year-old Orioles righty (4-7, 5.63) faces his former team with a big chance to go Over this number. He has gone Over 4.5 strikeouts in six of his last seven starts. Over his last three starts he has 20 strikeouts. On Friday he will face an Atlanta club that has not been seeing the ball well recently; the Braves have struck out 54 times (in their last five games), the fourth highest total in all of baseball over the last week.

Ben Casparius Under 3.5 strikeouts (+113) vs. Astros (9:10 p.m. ET)

Rating: 5 stars
Model projection: 1.4 strikeouts

This is the model's best pitcher strikeout prop for the Fourth of July. The Dodgers righty has been serving as the bulk pitcher after Shohei Ohtani's starts, but on Friday Casparius is set to start his third game of the season. Over his first two starts, he has averaged 3.0 strikeouts per outing. He also has gone Under this number in seven of his last eight appearances. On Friday he will face a Houston club that has struck out 665 times this season, the fifth fewest total in all of baseball.