Winning is fun, so I'm starting to enjoy doing more WNBA picks, because I have been winning a fair amount on this sport this season, which is just past the halfway point of the 44-game slate. Two teams I haven't really touched on much yet are the Fire and Mystics, and they meet in the first game of a league doubleheader tonight from Washington with a 7 ET tip.
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Fire vs. Mystics WNBA single-game parlay
- Washington money line
- Alt Over 158.5 points
FanDuel SGP price: +112
I don't pretend to understand how or why the WNBA schedules things, and travel upgrades were a major part of the new collective bargaining agreement. But, boy, is Portland in the midst of a grueling schedule. Tonight is the Fire's eighth road game in its past 10, and the Fire have crisscrossed the country with stops in Minneapolis, Chicago, Washington, Seattle, Atlanta and Connecticut, plus two games back in Portland mixed in. This road-heavy slate has one more game on it, Saturday at the Lynx, and then the All-Star break and it normalizes.
It does appear this trip is taking a toll, as Portland (10-14) was knocked off at what had been league-worst Connecticut on Tuesday, 90-87. It was only the Sun's fourth win at home and sixth overall. I will say that was a very strange 11 a.m. ET tip time, so the Fire's body clocks were probably completely off and indeed they were down nine after a quarter.
"I never want to have any excuses for the team. We always believe that every game is on us," coach Alex Sarama said. "But yeah, I think it's definitely something to adapt to. The hole we kind of dug ourselves in that first half ultimately was too deep."
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Portland had a chance to tie in the final second but Bridget Carleton missed a 3-pointer as the Fire fell to 7-3 in clutch games, which is where the point differential is five or fewer in the final five minutes. Carleton leads the club at 15.3 points per but was held to 12. Guard Sarah Ashelee Barker returned after missing a game and had nine points and five rebounds.
The Fire struggle with the bigger clubs â their tallest player is 6-foot-4 -- as Connecticut won the rebounding battle 31-23 and grabbed 11 offensive rebounds for 10 second-chance points. Not helping matters is that the Fire will be without starting center and 6-foot-4 Megan Gustafson (12.2 PPG, 3.9 RPG) tonight for personal reasons.
That Portland is last in the WNBA in rebounding (29.5 per game) might be a major problem, as Washington ranks first (36.8 per game). The Mystics (12-10) come off a no-sweat 79-62 win in Toronto on Tuesday for their second straight victory and seventh in the past 10. Two Mystics had double-doubles as All-Star Kiki Iriafen had 25 points and 14 rebounds, and Shakira Austin added 17 points and 10 rebounds. Iriafen is among league leaders with 10 double-doubles and has six in her past seven games.
Tuesday marked a season low in points allowed for Washington, which is healthy, and it was the 10th time it has held a team to 80 points or fewer, fourth most in the WNBA. It ranks third in scoring defense at 83.2 PPG. That is a bit skewed as well due to allowing 123 points to Portland in a one-point home victory in quadruple overtime on June 28 in the teams' only meeting this season thus far.
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The four overtimes tied a league record, and Washington became the first team to have three players score at least 27 points in the same game: Sonia Citron scored 32 points, including the basket that put her team ahead to stay with 21.4 seconds left, while Michaela Onyenwere scored 30 points and Iriafen added 27.
Their 89 points tied for the second-highest scoring total by a trio of teammates in WNBA history, while the 124 team points were a franchise record. The game had 21 ties and 12 lead changes and took 3 hours, 35 minutes.
I believe the Fire players are about out of gas with this rugged schedule and they are 5-7 ATS on the road. Washington has been one of the better ATS teams overall at 12-10. Tired teams are poor defensively, so I chose an alt Over instead of Under. Portland ranks last in the league in defensive rating in its past 10. Models generally have 172 total points scored. Check out other expert picks in the SportsLine daily newsletter.
