Fantasy football start/sit, Week 5: Start C.J. Stroud vs. Ravens, Sit Baker Mayfield vs. Seahawks

The SportsLine Projection Model was developed and powered by the Inside the Lines team. You can find all of our team's picks and content at our blog, which has all our personal best bets for free. Over two decades, we have reverse engineered oddsmakers' models, which has resulted in 85-90% of our projections being virtually identical to the oddsmaker's lines and we're killing it in the NFL this season.

Our models originated as fantasy projection models over 20 years ago, but when we realized our projected points allowed for fantasy defenses picked against the spread and Over/Unders as well, we capitalized on that segment of the industry. But just as our spread and totals are closely aligned with sportsbooks, our underlying player projections are also closely aligned with player prop lines, which are often the far better predictor of fantasy points (and ranking).

We take a look at our latest model projections for fantasy football in Week 4 of the 2025 NFL season to give you start/sit advice, and compare our numbers to the Fantasy Football Today consensus rankings to see where you can find value. We have focused on the players that are potential bench candidates based on the FFT consensus rankings but they would be likely starters based on Inside the Lines analysis, and vice versa.

Tough Start/Sit Decisions in Week 5

In most cases fantasy mangers don't have the flexibility to actually sit a regular starter for the better option this week. So the SIT players are more ones our team considers to be overrated and the START players are underrated.

Drake Maye (ITL QB11 | FFT QB5): The Patriots offense was great vs Carolina a team that allowed 35.1 pts per game on the road and are still allowing 32 per game on the road this season. Buffalo clearly was not jacked up to face the Saints at home but whenever they felt any material threat they locked down and still held their 3rd straight team to 21 or less. Drake Maye is FF QB5 and might have been higher if not for the bad turnovers vs Pittsburgh. The Patriots are averaging 26 pts per game. The oddsmakers have their team total at 21 and our model has them at just 19 pts. When you adjust for expected TDs based on odds models you should understand why we'd have QB5 at just QB11 in this matchup.

Play $5 on NFL at Underdog Fantasy and get $100 with the Underdog Fantasy promo code CBSSPORTS2:

C.J. Stroud (ITL QB14 | FFT QB21): We projected the Texans to regress to their mean (20 pts per game) vs the weak Titans defense and that's exactly what happened. The spark that rookie Woody Marks has provided (see below) ignited the offense. But most importantly, the Ravens defense is a disaster. Stroud, like most QBs, struggle vs good pass rushers, especially inside pressure. With the injuries, especially to Nnamdi Madubuike, across the Ravens defense Stroud may literally have 5 seconds per drop back and his great accuracy on deep balls that he had as a rookie will be in plain view this week.

Baker Mayfield (ITL QB16 | FFT QB8): The reason why the Ravens defense is one of the worst units in the history of the NFL (not just franchise history) statistically after 4 weeks is the true mastermind of the defense that led the league in points allowed, sacks, and turnovers is now the Head Coach of Seattle. Mike Macdonald is the 'one that got away' for Ravens flock (which I am a sad card carrying member of). Macdonald is a mastermind of figuring out how to attack a QB in ways that can't be picked up through film study and can't be picked up pre-snap. Throw in that 1) Tampa Bay's team total (odds and ITL model) is just 20 to 20.5 points; 2) Bucky Irving may be out; and 3) Mike Evans is still out and you'll get why you should bench Baker this week if you have a better option on the bench. 

Bo Nix (ITL QB22 | FFT QB13): We knew Bo Nix and Courtland Sutton would put up big numbers vs the Bengals. But this will change on the road vs the Eagles. Denver is projected by us for just 18.1 points and their odds implied team total isn't much better at 19.5 points. Nix's fantasy points are highly correlated to quality of opposing defenses. That's true of everyone, but Nix can show some real extremes. His 15.4 vs the Chargers jumped to nearly 30 vs the Bengals. Last season he had 37 vs Atlanta, 23 vs the Raiders but then just 14 vs the Browns. The improving Eagles offense also is resulting in less time of possession for their opposition.

Woody Marks (ITL RB15 | FFT RB24): Like everyone, we have him as a hot waiver wire pickup. "Sloquan" Smith is injured. Madabuike is injured. Broderick Washington is injured. Travis Jones may play but is hurt an ineffective. Marks is much better than the old version of Nick Chubb and Joe Mixon is a long way from returning. Marks isn't a great athlete for the position but you don't have to worry about beating speedy defenders on the edge vs the Ravens. You can just run it right up the gut like it was 1940 and there was no forward passing. 

Stefon Diggs (ITL WR42 | FFT WR27): As I said above with Drake Maye what you do vs the Panthers at home is NOT any type of predictor of what you'll do on the road vs Buffalo. The Bills obviously have a ton of familiarity with Diggs. Now the good news is the Bills thought Diggs was washed two years ago before he went to Houston and tore up his knee so they won't double him or try to give him any special defensive treatment. At the same time the Bills will limit trips to the Red Zone and we're projecting Diggs to be in the 3.5 rec, 35 yard range that he was in Week 2 and 3. 

Darren Waller (ITL TE4 | FFT TE11): We knew a healthy happy Darren Waller could be uber productive like Jonnu Smith was for Miami. Tyreek Hill's injury hurts the Dolphins but helps Waller's fantasy production. If he stays healthy he could be even more productive than Smith was, if you believe it. He showed great hands, speed, tremendous feet getting in bounds for the TD. And he even was flashing a smile which is a great sign for Waller's value this season. 

Juwan Johnson (ITL TE12 | FFT TE6): The Giants defense has gotten progressively better in points allowed the last 3 weeks but has shown vulnerability vs the run. The Saints may look to keep it on the ground more which is why their number of rush attempts has been 30+ in two of their last 3 games. Johnson's uber productive start in Weeks 1 to 3 put him squarely on defensive coordinators' radar and stopping Johnson became a priority. As a result his targets went from more than 9 per game in Weeks 1 to 3 to just 3 targets vs Buffalo. Without Malik Nabers the Giants will look to grind the ball down the field on the strength of rookies Cam Skattebo and QB Jaxson Dart (10 carries last week). This could eat up clock. But at the same time the Giants aren't explosive enough to put up a ton of points and force the Saints to abandon the run in an attempt to come back from a deep hole.

Play NFL at Betr Fantasy and get up to a $210 bonus with the code CBSSPORTS:

Week 5 PPR Rankings from Inside the Lines

These are our initial Week 5 projected PPR rankings. Players who are rostered in under 80% of CBS Fantasy leagues are noted in [brackets]. The projected PPR points are shown along with the FFT Expert Consensus Ranking (ECR).

Visit Our Free Picks Blog

Remember, for all of our best bets, you can get them for free on our new blog. We will not only have fantasy analysis but will also show you how to use Inside the Lines (powering SportsLine, CBS Fantasy) fantasy projections to make good NFL prop bets. When the lines post by mid-week, we'll be able to automatically identify the 15 to 20 best values out of 100+ possible player props, and I guarantee a high number of overs will come from the players listed above. Undervalued fantasy assets are also likely to have underpriced player prop lines.