Fantasy football start/sit, Week 3: Start Mac Jones over Drake Maye, Marcus Mariota Over Justin Herbert

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We take a look at our latest model projections for fantasy football in Week 3 of the 2025 NFL season to give you start/sit advice, and compare our numbers to the Fantasy Football Today consensus rankings to see where you can find value. We have focused on the players that are potential bench candidates based on the FFT consensus rankings but they would be likely starters based on Inside the Lines analysis, and vice versa.

Marcus Mariota Over Justin Herbert

Friday 9/19, 1 pm EST update

With Jayden Daniels out Marcus Mariota gets the start for Washington this week. I'm old enough to remember when Mariota was an awesome 2nd pick in the draft prospect just like Jayden Daniels. He was a super star out of Oregon just like Justin Herbert. This week we project Mariota to be QB9 and Justin Herbert, believe it or not, QB 18.

The reason why would have this surprising pick is 100% matchup based and our expectation that in Week 3 these teams and their opponents aren't radically different than last season.

Washington averaged 30 per game last season and Marcus Mariota led them to a 40 point explosion vs Carolina last October 20. He completed 15 of 18 passes for 161 yards and 2 TDs in Week 18 vs Dallas. He is 100% capable of producing 90% of what Jayden Daniels would have produced statistically.  The Raiders defense has only allowed 16.5 per game this season but last season they allowed nearly 26 per game with largely the same roster.

Justin Herbert is matchup up against another Oregon Duck, Bo Nix. But of course the big concern for Herbert is the Broncos' defense which struggled vs the Colts but was elite last season allowing under 20 pts per game. Herbert has been using his legs more (7 and 9 carries in WK 1 and 2) and Quentin Johnston has been catching the deep ball. But these 2 games do not over-rule what we saw in 2024 where Johnston could be inconsistent, to say the least, and any QB, could struggle vs Denver.

Washington's odds implied team total is nearly 24 and the Chargers' is also right around 24. Mariota ran 5 times for 56 yards and a rushing TD for 30 fantasy points the last time he faced a bad defense at home (January 5, 2024 vs Dallas). Washington does not have Brian Robinson Jr. or Austin Ekeler anymore so Mariota designed runs may be a big part of the game plan.

Portion below was originally published 9/16

Start/Sit Decisions in Week 3

In most cases fantasy mangers don't have the flexibility to actually sit a regular starter for the better option this week. So the SIT players are more ones our team considers to be overrated and the START players are underrated.

Mac Jones (ITL QB 9 | FFT QB 16): Arizona's defense allowed 328 passing yards to Bryce Young and 2 TDs from Hunter Renfrow. Mac Jones passed for 279 yards and 3 TDs (no picks) vs the Saints. So far, so good when it comes to  Christian McCaffrey avoiding the injury bug. He put up a perfect stat line for a QB like Jones with nearly as many receiving yards (52) as rushing (55). With a receiving RB like McCaffrey as RB1 or 2 this week it 'automatically' makes his QB a start in fantasy. I also like that the backup SF Tight Ends combined for a George Kittle like stat line (6 rec, 45 yards, 1 TD). 

Drake Maye (ITL QB 14 | FFT QB 11): TJ Watt got a Myles Garrett like deal but he has not had a sack this season and the Steelers defense does not look like the top tier defense giving up 32 to Justin Fields and 31 to Sam Darnold (24 by the offense, 1 by that horrible kick return). The Patriots allowed over 3 sacks per game last season and 3.5 so far this season. We are projecting some regression to the mean for the Steelers defense which is why we are projecting the Patriots to score just 18.5 points which is well under their 21.5 odds implied total.

This 15% 'haircut' offensively for New England is why we have Maye just outside the Top 12 starting range. If you think the Steelers defense is cooked and about to have a massive down year with their veterans hitting the wall then start Maye comfortably.

Bo Nix (ITL QB 16 | FFT QB 10): Nix has missed on some passes to start the season and is only averaging 5.5 yards per attempt. He also has 3 interceptions already. He doesn't have good early chemistry with TE Evan Engram to start the season. The Chargers defense has allowed just 5.3 yards per pass attempt and they have faced arguably the best QB in history (Patrick Mahomes) and a 4500 yard, 70% cmp QB in Geno Smith.

Bo Nix is only fantasy QB 21 after 2 weeks and with a team total of 21.5 Denver is only 19th or 20th in projected team total this week. So a below average start for Nix combined with a below average fantasy situation equals a below average fantasy performance. The fact that Nix had two very good games vs the Chargers last season actually makes me think that it'll be tougher this time around now that the the Chargers defensive coaches have had a full off-season to prepare how to handle Nix.

Ladd McConkey (ITL WR 25 | FFT WR 11): The Chargers great start to the season has been tied to their great defense (sit Bo Nix) and on offense, Justin Herbert running and finding Quentin Johnston for big plays. The running by Herbert (7 and 9 carries) results in a lower % of plays passing and more open shots deep down the field to Johnston as the defense has to play closer to the line of scrimmage to defend Herbert's scrambling.

Keenan Allen is back in the fold and McConkey has to split targets for the short and intermediate throws. McConkey is awesome and deservedly gets WR1 treatment from opposing defenses. This benefits his teammates who aren't covered by CB1 and that is why Johnston and Allen have both scored both weeks and have combined for 5 TDs to McConkey's zero.

Tee Higgins (ITL WR 31 | FFT WR 14): Higgins is NOT a player to sit as our WR31. We just see him more as a WR3 this week as opposed to WR1. Higgins did have some big games with Browning starting in 2023 and scored a TD vs the Jags in Week 2. Our model is actually higher on Jake Browning's ability to keep the Bengals afloat in Joe Burrow's absence than oddsmakers do and project the Bengals for 20 points which is over their 19.5 team total.

Higgins is only WR39 after two weeks and the Bengals have one of the lowest team totals on the board. Brian Flores' defenses typically make inexperienced QBs a lot of trouble especially at home.

Tet McMillan (ITL WR 37 | FFT WR 21): I think he's an awesome WR and it's not his fault that he has no touchdowns after 19 target, 11 catches, and 168 yards. It's part Bryce Young's limitations and the fact that he already gets star WR1 treatment from defenses. The Falcons have successfully drafted to create a scary pass rush and have allowed just 162 passing yards per game. The Falcons can make life miserable for Bryce without blitzing extra defenders so Tet will have defenders draped all over him.

The Falcons are also comfortable using Penix's great arm as a decoy to some degree. They can use their two headed RB monster to dominate time of possession which further reduces the number of plays for Carolina.

Terry McLaurin (ITL WR 18 | FFT WR 40): In two games where Marcus Mariota played a lot last season Terry McLaurin had 14 rec, 160 yards and 1 TD. If Jayden Daniels can't go this week I feel he, and Zach Ertz (see below), will still be very productive. Jayden Daniels missed McLaurin on what should have been a walk in long TD catch in Week 1. I think if that hadn't happened McLaurin's FFT ranking would be in the 20s. I'm not going to penalize him for that.

If Austin Ekeler's injury does really hurt Washington's ground game, and Bill just isn't up to the task then that could be good from a fantasy perspective if Washington has to go from a 50/50 pass:rush ratio to 60:40.

Zach Ertz (ITL TE 4 | FFT TE 11): Ertz was a Top 5 TE last season (I believe) and is Top 5 so far this season. Second year TE Ben Sinnott is still not a threat to Ertz' usage. Like McLaurin, Ertz was highly productive in the two Mariota games with a combined 9 rec, 84 yards, 2 TDs. Not going to overthink when a statistical Top 5 TE is playing a game where his team is Top 10 in projected team total.

T.J. Hockenson (ITL TE 8 | FFT TE 13): We are not projecting a good game for Carson Wentz due to a super high interception projection. But opposing QBs had 30 passing TDs last season vs the Bengals and 4 more this season. These are top 5 most TDs allowed levels. While Wentz is years removed from his peak he is at least a veteran, in the same Sam Darnold/Daniel Jones mode, who has the tools to revive his career playing for Kevin O'Connell. Wentz' issues had more to do with his leadership qualities (or lack thereof) than passing talent. Our model is projecting Minnesota (and Cincinnati for that matter) to both greatly exceed their odds implied team total despite their both starting their backup QBs. 

Harold Fannin Jr. (ITL TE 18 | FFT TE 9): We are very high on Fannin and have him as a top Waiver Wire pickup. But we can't unsee what Green Bay's defense did to the Lions in week 1 and the Bears in Week 2. Green Bay's defense also is coming off a mini-bye week. We also can't unsee what the Ravens defense did to Joe Flacco. The one passing TD he had was off BOTH palms of Marlon Humphrey. If you are in a bizarre Zero Point TD league then Fannin is a fine start, but with just a 0.12 TD per sim projection Fannin is a sit this week.

Week 3 PPR Rankings

These are our initial Week 3 projected PPR rankings. Players who are rostered in under 80% of CBS Fantasy leagues are noted in [brackets]. The projected PPR points are shown along with the FFT Expert Consensus Ranking (ECR).

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