Combat legends parlay: Punch this big-fight boxing and UFC ticket to the payout window

This weekend, the combat sports arena will say goodbye to one of its legends while welcoming another back, as Dustin Poirier returns to the octagon for one final time and Manny Pacquiao steps back into the ring.

We'll start with the final performance of a mixed martial arts icon, as the one-time interim champion Poirier will fight for the promotion one last time at UFC 318. The card is being held in New Orleans, near his hometown of Lafayette, La., and the UFC built the card around a farewell theme for the rugged 36-year-old slugger. He will be taking on former featherweight champion Max Holloway in the main event.

Poirier, who made his UFC debut 14 years ago, has seen his career come full circle. His rise as a prospect was halted by an early loss to Conor McGregor in which he showed little resistance and appeared perhaps psychologically defeated before entering the cage.

He would recover from that loss with a record of 9-1-1 in his next 11 fights to earn a title bid against Khabib Nurmagomedov in September 2019. He lost the fight by third-round submission but arguably put up the toughest test the sinister Russian ever saw before retiring with a 29-0 record. He earned that undisputed title bid with a win for the interim belt over Holloway, against whom he already boasts a 2-0 record.

Moreover, Poirier is perhaps best known for getting his revenge against McGregor in dominant fashion. He knocked out the brash Irishman twice in a six-month span in 2021, the first time as a +260 underdog. In their trilogy match, a humiliated and hapless McGregor was seen spewing vitriolic comments toward Poirier and his wife while begging the referee to declare the fight an injury-based stoppage instead of a TKO for Poirier. McGregor hasn't fought in the UFC since, while Poirier has only seen his legacy grow despite the lack of an undisputed title on his resume.

His ledger includes many memorable wars in which he got his hand raised, including as a +230 underdog against surging contender Benoit Saint Denis last year, MMA odds that suggested bookmakers believed Poirier's best days were behind him. Moreover, his down-home appeal and reputation for never turning down a fight have made the Louisiana native one of the most popular UFC fighters of his generation.

A hometown sendoff, a rarity for a promotion that notorious for caring little about sentimental storylines and underappreciating its biggest names, is certainly deserved and should be a sight to behold. However, the matchup itself is a little on the puzzling side.

Poirier beat Holloway by submission in 2012 and dominated wire to wire in a unanimous decision win in April 2019. A trilogy feels a bit unnecessary, especially when Poirier sits at 1-1 in his rivalry with fellow icon Justin Gaethjee, who is currently not scheduled for a fight. Gaethje won their second bout by head-kick knockout in June 2023 and a rivalry rubber match with the ability to avenge that loss would make a juicy storyline.

Nevertheless, a third matchup with Holloway, whose massive star power might even eclipse that of Poirier, is far from a consolation prize for UFC observers.

While UFC 318 will grab the majority of the headlines this week, boxing will see a legend return as the former multi-time world champion Pacquiao, now 46, breaks a four-year hiatus from the sport to face WBC welterweight champion Mario Barrios. And two months from now, boxing has a mega-fight in store when Canelo Alvarez meets Terence Crawford on Sept. 13.

Three-leg combat legends parlay 

In honor of this theme of legends of combat sports, we've put together a three-leg parlay that currently offers a lucrative return of +576 at Caesars Sportsbook. Here are the plays:

Poirier (+110): The Louisiana native has never lost back-to-back fights in his UFC career and, despite the six-year gap between meetings with Holloway, it's surprising to see Poirier as the underdog after this fight opened at around pick'em in the MMA odds at most outlets. He's had an advantage in power, ground game and durability. Although Holloway would love nothing more than to spoil the hometown sendoff for his rival, we see Poirier delivering for his fans one final time.

Barrios (-250): The last time we saw Pacquiao in the ring, he was outclassed by +600 underdog Yordenis Ugas, who has since lost back-to-back fights. One of those losses came to Barrios, a slick boxer-puncher who appears to be hitting his prime at age 30. The fact that one of Barrios' two losses was by TKO to Gervonta Davis suggests there is a path to victory for Pacquiao should his famous power connect, but we think Barrios should spoil the comeback with a decisive victory.

Crawford (+130): The fact that Crawford will be moving up multiple weight classes to face Canelo at 168 pounds for the undisputed super middleweight title (Crawford spent the prime of his career at welterweight 147 pounds), is about the only justification for sportsbooks to post Alvarez as the favorite. His decorated career has been sullied by a series of unimpressive decision wins against subpar opponents, with this last fight against William Scull setting a CompuBox all-time low for punches thrown in a 12-rund fight. Alvarez will have to stalk and land damage against Crawford in order to win, and none of Crawford's prior 41 opponents have figured out that formula. Look for the elusive Crawford to pick his spots and throw in short bursts that land cleanly and do enough to win rounds while Alvarez struggles to connect with punches of any consequence.

Josh Nagel is the combat sports editor for Sportline and has recently returned as its lead boxing analyst. He is up more than $1,500 in 2025 on his main-event boxing selections for SportsLine members. Check out SportsLine here to see more of his boxing analysis and predictions.