College football Week 1: Boise State vs. South Florida and Ohio vs. Rutgers spread among Thursday's best bets
The Inside the Lines team breaks down our best bets for every week of the College Football season
We got our first taste of college football for the 2025 season with a five-game "Week 0" slate over the weekend, but the real action begins this week with a locked and loaded Week 1 schedule that begins on Thursday, Aug. 28. The Inside the Lines team conceived of, developed and powers the SportsLine model. The Inside the Lines betting system combines 1) our strongest projected values, 2) with relevant supporting trends and 3) pinpointed best lines and prices to identify our Best Bets. In a majority of cases lines move in our direction so you will want to ACT NOW before lines move and you lose value.
College Football Week 1 Best Bets
Boise State -6 (-110, BetMGM) vs. South Florida
Model: Boise State 37, South Florida 24
This line has actually moved in our favor from -6.5 to -6, but we don't think it will move much further and could possibly go back in the other direction. Boise State was the Group of 5's representative in the inaugural 12-team playoff last season, and while the Broncos don't return Ashton Jeanty, they bring back almost every other key piece. Boise State has a history of developing elite running backs, and we believe that the Broncos can somewhat replace his lost production between Fresno State transfer Malik Sherrod and redshirt freshman Sire Gaines.
South Florida also returns much of its production from last season, but that might not be the best thing. USF's defense ranked 99th in the country at nearly 30 points allowed per game. South Florida was also just 1-4 ATS at home in FBS games last season compared to 5-2 ATS away from home.
We expect Boise to have a significant advantage running the ball, to win the turnover margin, and we have the Broncos at four sacks compared to USF's three. Lay the spread on Boise here.
Ohio +14.5 (-115, BetMGM) vs. Rutgers
Ohio lost coach Tim Albin to Charlotte, but the Bobcats hired internally, so there isn't as much coaching turnover as expected. Ohio does return its starting QB, Parker Navarro, who led the team to a 10-win season last year.
This game is expected to be somewhat low scoring with the total at just 46.5, and we even have slight value on the Under. Look for Ohio to be able to stay in the game thanks to Navarro's experience, and getting +14.5 means there is probably a good chance for a hedge later in this game.
Wyoming vs. Akron Under 50.5 (-110, BetMGM)
Week 1 FBS games last year went 48-28 (63%) on the Under. Akron's home games went 1-3 on the Under last season, and while Wyoming's road games averaged 52 points, if you remove the New Mexico game (94 points), the Cowboys' road games averaged 44 points. Akron averaged 24 points at home, and Wyoming averaged 19 points on the road, so it is no surprise why our model leans Over with the total at 50.5.
Akron ranks 131st in returning defensive production, and Wyoming ranks 129th in defensive returning production. It makes sense that the total is a little higher than expected because of the unknowns on defense, but neither team was particularly good on defense last season, and we are betting on two bad offenses to continue to struggle.
Bet on any of Thursday's college football games at BetMGM:
More picks at our blog
The picks above are based on the lines posted so far, but as new lines post and move, we'll keep putting out best bets free at our blog.
