College football predictions: Oklahoma-Tennessee among best over/under picks for Week 10
Four SEC conference games headline this week's best over/under bets for the Week 10 slate
One of the great things with college football is the wide variety of games. We see some physical low-scoring affairs on a regular basis, but there are also plenty of shootouts. The wide scope of play styles makes betting on the total, or over/under, so interesting as it's based so much on the matchups. We're now into Week 10 of the 2025 season, and we have five more best total bets this week, including four games in the SEC. All odds and totals are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Best over/under picks for Week 10
Miami at SMU Over 51.5
Miami bounced back from a loss to Louisville with a blowout win of Stanford last week as the Hurricanes look to reestablish themselves as the team to beat in the ACC. SMU made the College Football Playoff last year but is 5-3 this season and just barely lost to Wake Forest in a 13-12 affair last week.
We've seen this SMU team score a lot of points, though, with 35 against Clemson, 34 against Stanford and 31 against Syracuse. Plus, we know the Hurricanes are going to come out firing to strengthen their CFP case. The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every college football game 10,000 times, has Over 51.5 hitting in 69% of simulations.
Vanderbilt at Texas Over 44.5
This total may seem low, but Vanderbilt scored just 17 points last week in a close win over Missouri and scored 14 in a recent loss to Alabama. Texas, meanwhile, may be fresh off 45-point showing in a comeback win over Mississippi State, but the Longhorns have struggled offensively for most of the year. Plus, starting quarterback Arch Manning left last week's win in the fourth quarter, so his status is worth monitoring here.
Ultimately, though, it feels like there's enough firepower with both offenses to clear this line, especially with Diego Pavia leading the Commodores to a magical run thus far. The Over hits in 52% of SportsLine model simulations.
Georgia at Florida Over 50.5
We have no clue what the Gators, fresh off a bye, will look like this week after firing Billy Napier two weeks ago. What we know is Florida has talent, especially under center with DJ Lagway. Things just didn't click for the Gators after a strong end to 2024. Georgia, meanwhile, has played in its fair share of shootouts, so we know the Bulldogs can score if needed.
We've seen teams like UCLA rally under interim head coaches, especially offensively. With a bye week under their belt, perhaps the Gators come out swinging with some energy and we see them unleash Lagway in a way we really haven't seen this year. This is also a more susceptible Bulldogs defense than we're used to seeing, but their offense more than makes up for it when needed. The SportsLine model has Over 50.5 hitting in 53% of simulations.
Mississippi State at Arkansas Under 67.5
This is one of five games with a total greater than 60 at DraftKings right now, and it's the highest total of the entire slate as both sides have stellar offenses while defense has been essentially optional. Arkansas has lost three close ones in a row after firing Sam Pittman after a blowout loss to Notre Dame, but the offense has not been the problem. The Bulldogs are also fresh off scoring 38 points against Texas.
But this is a massive total to clear, and one or both teams could come in and put up a clunker offensively. Neither Arkansas or Mississippi State have won an SEC game this year. MSU scored just 21 on a bad Florida team just two weeks ago. The SportsLine model is strongly leaning Under 67.5 here as that hits in 68% of simulations for an 'A' grade.
Oklahoma at Tennessee Under 56.5
The Sooners are fresh off a big loss to Ole Miss when they allowed a season-high 34 points to the Rebels, and they now get a Tennessee team that's scoring over 46 points per game. So why the Under here?
Well, there are two things at play. First, even with allowing 34 points last week, the Sooners have had one of the nation's top scoring defenses. They're as equipped as anyone to try and slow down Tennessee's high-powered attack. Second, John Mateer returned three weeks ago but hasn't looked quite himself yet after hand surgery. The Sooners will likely try to bleed clock and limit possessions here. The SportsLine model has Under 56.5 hitting in 64% of simulations.
