Week 1 is upon us in college football. While I won't write about at every CBS Sports Game of the Week in this space this year, if we are being honest the overall Week 1 slate is pretty lame and the CBS matchup might be the best of the bunch on Saturday. Boise State begins life as a Pac-12 program by visiting No. 2 Oregon of the Big Ten. It's quite possible we see these two face off again in the College Football Playoff. Bet on college football at DraftKings, where new users get $200 when they spend $5+:
It's a 3:30 ET kick and marks the debut of Charles Davis replacing the legendary Gary Danielson as CBS Sports' lead college football analyst. Danielson has been in booth for 36 seasons overall and 20 with CBS Sports before announcing his retirement. Davis has been with CBS as an analyst for NFL games since 2020.
You may remember the 2024 matchup between these clubs as it was one of the better games of that regular season with Boise losing 37-34 at No. 7 Oregon on a 25-yard field goal as time expired. The Ducks couldn't stop then-Broncos tailback Ashton Jeanty, who had 200 yards from scrimmage and three rushing scores. But Dillon Gabriel was 18 of 21 for 243 yards and two scores for Oregon. Both those players are in the NFL now. BSU leads the series 3-1. Oregon's three losses against Boise since 2008 are the most for the Ducks against any non-conference foe in that span.
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Boise State-Oregon same-game parlay
- Broncos alt +32.5
- Alt Over 44.5
DrafKings price: +104 (subject to change)
Boise has the shortest odds of any non-power conference school to get to the CFP this season at +450 and is the +135 favorite to win the re-imagined Pac-12 in its first season back. But that's no longer close to a power conference league with eight football schools. Note that there is a change in this year's 12-team playoff format as there is no separate Group of 6 automatic bid. Instead, it's the five highest-ranked conference champions overall and then seven at-large bids.
The Broncos, who have finished with a winning record for an FBS-best 28 straight seasons, might not be underdogs again this regular season after Saturday. Maddux Madsen returns as the starting quarterback. He's 20-6 career as a starter, the fourth-best record by an active FBS QB who has started at least 20 games.
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At No. 2, Oregon has its highest preseason AP Poll ranking in school history and the Ducks caught a shocking break when star QB Dante Moore turned down the NFL Draft after last season when he might have been the No. 1 overall pick. That doesn't happen in the pre-NIL era. Moore, an +1100 third-favorite to win the Heisman Trophy, is 16-4 in his career as a starter. That's tied for the best mark by an active QB with a minimum of 20 starts.
Combined, Madsen and Moore have a career winning percentage of .783 as starting quarterbacks. That's the best such matchup for an FBS season opener since 2016 between Oklahoma's Baker Mayfield and Houston's Greg Ward Jr. Oregon's Dan Lanning is 48-8 as an FBS head coach and Boise's Spencer Danielson is 24-8. Their combined winning percentage of .818 is the best by opposing head coaches in an opener since the 2005 matchup between Boise State and Georgia.
This marks Boise State's first-ever game against an AP Top 2 foe, and it has a nine-game skid against power conference foes with the last win coming in the 2019 opener at Florida State. Madsen is 0-3 and completing just 51.6% of this throws with two TDs and five INTs career vs. power teams. BSU is 0-5 all-time vs. Big Ten teams, but three of the losses have been by four points or fewer.
Oregon has won 21 straight home openers and 37 in a row at home overall against non-conference foes (last loss in 2008 vs. Boise). All three of the Ducks' losses the past two seasons have been against the eventual national champion. Lanning is 34-0 in his head coaching career vs. unranked opponents. Moore is 5-0 vs. non-power teams career with the Ducks averaging 49.0 points in those games and Moore totaling 16 TDs and only two INTs.
This is the biggest margin by which BSU has been an underdog since 1999 vs. UCLA, and the Broncos are 2-0 ATS this century as at least 20-point dogs. It marks Oregon's 39th game as a double-digit favorite under Lanning, third-most in the FBS since 2022. The Ducks are 24-14 ATS in those games. They should win this game but not by more than 32. The model has the Ducks winning by a score of 36-13. Check out other expert picks in the SportsLine daily newsletter.
