Best MLB bets today: Braves vs. Phillies prediction, picks, props for August 28

The Philadelphia Phillies still sit atop the National League East standings, but they just were just swept by the New York Mets, resulting in their division lead shrinking to four games. The Phillies now turn their attention to another NL East foe in the Atlanta Braves, who are in the City of Brotherly Love for a four-game set beginning Thursday, Aug. 28 at 6:45 p.m. ET on MLB Network. 2025 has been a lost season for the Braves overall, but Atlanta has quietly been one of the best teams in the league of late, winning five of its last six series.

Those interested in MLB betting at the top sportsbooks can get the latest Braves vs. Phillies odds, predictions and player props from the SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every game 10,000 times.

The Phillies turn to Aaron Nola (2-7, 6.52 ERA) in the series opener as he aims to get back on track. The Braves, meanwhile, counter with the recently-acquired Cal Quantrill (4-11, 5.51 ERA). Nola has been banged up this year and is having far and away his worst MLB season. The good news for Nola and the Phillies is he's coming off six innings of two-run ball against the Washington Nationals after allowing 19 earned runs in 11 innings across his previous three outings. 

Nola's strikeout prop is at 5.5 (Over -128, Under +102) at FanDuel Sportsbook. Quantrill's is 3.5 (Over +112, Under -148). The SportsLine Projection Model does have one 5-star play for this game's pitching props, and it's Quantrill Under 3.5 earned runs allowed at -150. Quantrill is projected to only surrender 2.4 earned runs, making this Under the strongest possible recommendation from the model. 

Phillies slugger Kyle Schwarber is tied for second in all of MLB with Shohei Ohtani with 45 home runs, five behind current leader Cal Raleigh. Schwarber has the shortest odds to leave the yard in this game at +164, followed by teammate Bryce Harper at +255. Two Braves stars appear next, with Matt Olson at +290 and Ronald Acuna Jr. at +300.

Here are the SportsLine Projection Model's picks for Braves vs. Phillies on Thursday:

ATLANTA BRAVES at PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES | 8/28 | 6:45 PM ET

Money line
Pick: Braves +150
Atlanta wins in 49% of simulations, bringing value at these odds

Run line
Pick: Braves +1.5 (-130)
Atlanta covers in 69% of simulations, bringing value at these odds

Over/Under
Pick: Under 9.5 (-103)
The Under hits in 51.1% of simulations

Projected score: Braves 5.0, Phillies 4.8