Best MLB bets today: Astros vs. Tigers prediction, picks, props for August 19

The Detroit Tigers currently have the best record in the American League at 74-53, and they're a half game up on the AL East-leading Toronto Blue Jays (73-53) and four games ahead of the AL West-leading Houston Astros (69-56). The Tigers were able to gain some ground on the Astros after crushing them 10-0 on Monday, and the two World Series contenders face off in Detroit again on Tuesday, Aug. 19, at 6:40 p.m. ET on TBS.

Those interested in MLB betting at the top sportsbooks can get the latest Astros vs. Tigers odds, predictions and player props from the SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every game 10,000 times.

It doesn't get much better than this pitching battle tonight, as Tarik Skubal (11-3, 2.42 ERA) takes the mound for the Tigers while the Astros will counter with Hunter Brown (10-5, 2.45 ERA). Skubal is the current -300 AL Cy Young favorite at Caesars Sportsbook, while Brown has the third-shortest odds at +1800. 

Skubal's strikeout prop at FanDuel Sportsbook is 7.5 (Over +116, Under -148), while Brown's comes in at 6.5 (Over +116, Under -154). The SportsLine Projection Model, however, sees stronger value in the Over for each pitcher's earned runs allowed prop. Brown Over 1.5 earned runs (-164) and Skubal Over 1.5 earned runs (-110) have both been given 4.5 stars (out of 5), with Brown projected to give up 2.3 earned runs and Skubal calculated for 2.0. 

Riley Greene launched his team-leading 29th home run in Monday's contest, one of four Detroit home runs against Houston. Greene has the shortest odds to leave the yard again on Tuesday at +500, followed by teammates Kerry Carpenter at +560 and Spencer Torkelson at +600. The Astros player with the lowest odds to go deep is Christian Walker at +600. 

The Tigers are -165 money line favorites (wager $165 to win $100) in the latest SportsLine consensus odds, while the Astros are +138 underdogs (wager $100 to win $138). The total is down at 7, though it's moved up after opening at 6.5. You can find the model's latest projections and expert picks for Astros-Tigers at SportsLine.

Here are the SportsLine model's projections for Astros vs. Tigers on Tuesday.

HOUSTON ASTROS at DETROIT TIGERS | 8/19 | 6:40 p.m. ET

Money line
Pick: Tigers -165
Detroit wins in 62% of simulations

Run line
Pick: Astros +1.5 (-164)
Houston covers in 61% of simulations

Over/Under
Pick: Over 7 (-114)
The Over hits in 57.1% of simulations

Projected score: Tigers 4.6, Astros 3.9