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The SportsLine Model was developed and is powered by the Inside the Lines team. You can find all of our team's picks and content at our blog which has all our personal best bets for free. Our system is simple. We take the strongest SportsLine Model projected values vs the best available prices at the time we publish our content. In most cases lines move in 'our direction' so you should bookmark the blog, follow us on social and make it a habit of checking for updates throughout the day to maximize your expected value.

Betting the Spread and Total and our Best Bet

There are no strong betting values in the main markets with Buffalo at 56% to cover -1.5 and a 52% of the game coming in under 51.5 points. The consensus odds project to a score of BUF 26.5, BAL 25.0. The model projects a score of BUF 27.5, BAL 24.5 with the Bills having a 58% chance of winning. While weather won't be an issue like it was in the playoffs the fact that Isaiah Likely likely won't be available after having a slight fracture in his foot. On paper the Ravens can 'make up' for Likely's absence with more Mark Andrews and DeAndre Hopkins but we'll have to see how Andrews will respond to choking in the playoff game and how effective the Ravens will be playing more 3 WR and less 2 TE sets. 

The Bills are a more known commodity at this point while the Ravens have the higher ceiling. On paper, a healthy Keaton Mitchell to backup Derrick Henry, DeAndre Hopkins and even 2nd year WR Tez Walker could make the Ravens' offense even better. The addition of Jaire Alexander as a 3rd CB, rookies Malakhi Starks and Mike Green could make the defense even better. And while we have every confidence that the Ravens could be even better than the +9 pt diff per game of 2024 it may take a month for everything to gel. Kyle Hamilton was famously torched early in his career vs the Dolphins. Last year's pass defense took 2 months to get it together. The offense didn't crack 23 in the first 2 weeks last season and Derrick Henry didn't make an impact until WK3.

We are going to have to identify our best bet when the full slate of props are posted. At this point, we would take Buffalo to cover -1 at -110 on Caesars.

Would You Rather Have Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen in Fantasy?

Jackson is our QB1 and Allen QB2 in our season projection largely because Lamar Jackson's rushing yards will remain close to 1000 and that gives him the slight edge in FP average. The gap was larger last season (Lamar +3 per game). One big factor is strength of schedule. The Ravens have the 5th toughest schedule in the AFC while Buffalo has the 12th toughest in the conference. Josh Allen and the Bills are favored by at least -7 points in 14 of their games based on the sim model's projected score which is 3 more 'easy games' than Lamar and the Ravens have. When your team is up by more than one score late you tend not to have as many big offensive plays and expect Josh Allen to be handing it off to running backs a lot more. 

The addition of Derrick Henry may have cut into Lamar's carries, but the combination of him losing weight to regain some speed and quickness and the pick your poison zone read option with Henry and Lamar resulted in an increase in yards per carry. Lamar's carries per game dropped 12% but his rushing yards per game increased in 2024. 

What's On the Line? The One Seed and Both Team's Super Bowl Chances

If both teams played the same schedule we would project the Ravens to have more wins, but Baltimore has to deal with a far more competitive division and Buffalo gets all of their toughest opponents at home. As a result Buffalo is projected to have a 60% chance of getting the one seed in the AFC while the Ravens are at 23%. The 100% chance of advancing past round 1 is why Buffalo is projected to have a 20% chance of winning the Super Bowl and the Ravens are at 17%. Last season, Buffalo was destroyed by Baltimore in Week 4 but they didn't need the head-to-head win to still get the two seed ahead of Baltimore.

If Baltimore beats Buffalo their one seed chances jump to 45% and their Super Bowl chances improve to 23%. If Buffalo wins their one seed chances go all the way up to 70% and their SB chances are up to 23%. Our model recommends betting both teams to win the Super Bowl. You can get +700, 12.5% on Baltimore at Caesars and Buffalo to win at +700 on FanDuel.