Week 5 of the college football season began with 22 unbeaten FBS teams, and the only Saturday matchup featuring a pair of them is an early kick from the SEC as No. 7 Alabama (4-0) visits big surprise and No. 16 Mississippi State (4-0). There are story lines galore here, not the least of which is a matchup of sophomore quarterbacks Keelon Russell and Kamario Taylor, both major Heisman Trophy candidates. It's the first meeting since 2023 between the two schools, which are separated by just 90 miles. Bet on college football at DraftKings, where new users get $150 when they spend $5+:
The game kicks off at noon ET on Saturday on ABC as the anchor of the early college football window. The early kick is convenient as the weather might get sloppy, per Weather.com: Mostly cloudy early. Scattered thunderstorms developing later in the day. High 84F. Winds light and variable. Chance of rain 50%. At +6 on DraftKings, MSU is taking 59% of the handle and 52% of the bets. Over 60.5 is taking leans above 80% in both handle and tickets.
You can try college football betting on the best sports betting apps, but first you should check out the SportsLine Projection Model for picks on games from both the simulations and our experts. We have a strong play here for those who want to get into parlay betting for Alabama vs. Mississippi State.
Alabama vs. Mississippi St. same-game parlay
- Bulldogs alt +10.5
- Alt Over 52.5
FanDuel price: +109 (subject to change)
Sometimes the media gets things spot-on in preseason polls and sometimes way off. The SEC media certainly was wise to pick Arkansas to finish dead last of the 16 schools but looking rather silly thus far for having Mississippi State at 15th. But you can't blame the media, either, considering the Bulldogs had all of one total SEC win in two seasons under coach Jeff Lebby entering 2026.
One of the big movers on the Heisman Trophy odds board from Week 3 to Week 4 was MSU's Taylor, now a +700 third favorite at DraftKings, after leading his club to an electric 31-24 home win against then-No. 19 Missouri last Saturday. Taylor threw for 360 yards and three touchdowns, including a tiebreaking 24-yard score with 3:57 remaining.
Taylor, who grew up not far from Starkville (so that may keep all the aspiring transfer portal bidders at bay next offseason), enters Week 5 tied for the national lead with 14 touchdown passes. He looks to become only the fourth quarterback this century with at least three passing touchdowns in the first five games of a season along with Kyle Trask in 2020, Tua Tagovailoa in 2019 and Rex Grossman in 2001. None of them won a Heisman. No MSU player has even been a finalist.
The Bulldogs are 2-0 in the SEC for the first time since 2014, which was also the last time they started 5-0 overall. You probably remember that club was quarterbacked by Dak Prescott. Last week's win over Missouri was MSU's first win in an AP-ranked matchup since '14, snapping a 14-game losing streak in such games. That was the longest losing skid in AP poll history. That 2014 club was the last to beat ranked foes in back-to-back weeks.
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Maybe Lebby is building Mississippi State into a powerhouse or maybe this is the last best chance the school has to beat Alabama for a while. The Tide have won 16 straight in the series (12-4 ATS) with 14 of those victories by double digits â they have covered the past six. The only active longer straight-up winning streak in SEC vs. SEC is 17 in a row by Bama over Arkansas.
MSU's last win in the series was in Starkville in 2007 in Nick Saban's first season in charge at Alabama. All-time, the Crimson Tide are 14-1 in AP-ranked matchups in the series â losing the first in 1940. This would be such an incredible boost to Mississippi State's College Football Playoff hopes with it currently priced +410 to get there.
The rest of the home slate should be swept, but MSU still has to visit No. 11 LSU, No. 1 Texas and No. 9 Ole Miss. If they win here and steal one of those games, and they could get in. The SportsLine Projection Model currently gives the Bulldogs a 22.8% shot at the playoff, sixth-best in the SEC. A win on Saturday would raise those odds to 43.4%. Lose and it's 9.8%.
The last time the Tide won the national title was the 2020 season, and for the first time since then the team has started 4-0 while winning each game by at least 14 points. Kalen DeBoer's offense is humming under Russell with Bama scoring at least 40 points in its first four games for the fifth time in school history.
Russell (+1200 to win the Heisman) started a bit slowly the first two games but has nine total touchdowns in the past two and threw for at least 300 yards in each. The last Alabama signal-caller with three straight 300-yard games was Bryce Young in 2021, and he won the Heisman.
DeBoer started his Alabama career by winning seven of his first eight against AP Top 25 clubs but is 1-3 since. That said, the school's four-game road winning streak at AP-ranked foes is the nation's longest active, and the program is 4-1 in such games under DeBoer. The loss was in 2024 at No. 11 Tennessee.
The regular spread of 6 is stuck in the middle, thus no chance I wasn't manipulating that. Starkville will be a mad house, so it's hard to see MSU losing by more than 10 barring some defensive or special teams silliness. And the Bulldogs may well win outright. Likely not much defense played, so we punched the total down a chunk to bet Over. The SportsLine Projection Model has the Tide prevailing by a score of 36-30. That would work out just fine. Check out other expert picks in the SportsLine daily newsletter.
