AFC East best bets include taking Bills to make AFC Champ Game, lose Super Bowl and win Super Bowl
Mackenzie Brooks and the Inside the Lines Team breaks down where every AFC team's season is most likely to end and how to make smart futures bets
For all of my daily best bets go to the Inside the Lines blog.
AFC East Futures
The Bills' win total line is as high as 12.5 on some books and the best o11.5 is going to cost you a steep-175 at Hard Rock. Meanwhile you can get Miami's line at o7.5 (-105 DraftKings), the Patriots at +100 on o8.5 (DK), Miami o7.5 (-105 DK), and the Jets o5.5 at -140 (FanDuel). Our model simulates the season 1000s of times and on average Buffalo wins 12.8 games, Miami 8.3, the Jets 7.5 and New England just 6.2.
So our model AND the oddsmakers' consensus is that Buffalo is the only team that is a good bet to win over half their games.
| OUTCOME | BUFFALO | NEW ENGLAND | MIAMI | NY JETS |
| MISS PLAYOFFS | +550, 15.4% | 0.8% | -195, 66.1% | 92.3% | -270, 73% | 64% | -650, 86.7% | 78.8% |
| LOSE WC ROUND | +290, 25.6% | 10.7% | +330, 23.3% | 6% | +440, 18.5% | 23.3% | +850, 10.5% | 15.1% |
| LOSE DIV ROUND | +260, 27.8% | 26.3% | +800, 11.1% | 1.3% | +1000, 9.1% | 9.3% | +2200, 4.3% | 4.7% |
| LOSE AFC CHAMP | +440, 18.5% | 24.5% | +2300, 4.2% | 0.2% | +2800, 3.4% | 2.5% | +6000, 1.6% | 1.1% |
| LOSE SUPER BOWL | +850, 10.5% | 17.3% | +6000, 1.6% | 0.2% | +6500, 1.5% | 0.7% | +19000, 0.5% | 0.2% |
| SUPER BOWL CHAMP | +700, 12.5% | 20.4% | +8500, 1.2% | 0.1% | +9500, 1% | 0.2% | +25000, 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Odds, Odds Implied % | Simulation % Bold Indicates Significant Betting Value | ||||
This is why at 92% we have a ton of value on Buffalo to win the AFC East with a best price (as of publication) of -270 on FanDuel. That implies around 72% which is a full 20 percentage points lower than what our sim has.
Because the Bills have an easy division and get all of their toughest non-divisional games at home (Baltimore, Kansas City, Cincinnati, Tampa Bay, Philadelphia) they have the inside track for getting the one seed (model says 60%+) and that domino effect makes them a great value to go deep into the playoffs and ultimately win the Super Bowl (league leading 20.4%). In fact, you could bet them to win the Super Bowl, lose the Super Bowl and lose the AFC Championship game which is a combined 62.2% (nearly -170) and still make a +140 (if they lose the AFC Champ, +650 if they lose the SB and +500 if they win it all.
So you get a +140 payout on a bet that we'd price at -170.For the Patriots we love the under on their win total. There is a ton of positive momentum with Mike Vrabel, Drake Maye year 2, Treyveon Henderson at RB, an easy schedule and we agree they can improve by 50%. But that still takes them to 6 wins and well under the 8.5 +100 that DraftKings is offering.
Miami is a tough one for me to gauge. Their offense can be amazing if Tua stays healthy and, unlike past seasons, serviceable with backups Zach Wilson and Quinn Ewers. Their defense was actually solid last season but between the Jalen Ramsey trade and injuries they have an entirely new starting secondary. A sprinkle on them to make the playoffs at +225, 30.7% (bet365) is good value vs our 36% chance they make it. Or as the table above shows, taking them to immediately lose in round one at +440 is also a good value.
The Jets' defense was top 5 to 10 in most key statistical categories except for the big one... points allowed. They had to deal with too many short fields and turnovers putting them in bad position due to a bad running game. They have talented RBs and with Justin Fields, who by the way did have a higher passer rating than Aaron Rodgers last year, they could go from 31st to top 12 in rushing. This will not only increase scoring but also puts the defense in less bad situations and gives them more rest through increased time of possession. I'm taking Jets to win over 5.5 games at FanDuel. And maybe a sprinkle on their +850 to lose in the Wild Card round.
