ACC football picks, predictions: Projections tab SMU to make College Football Playoff, Miami to miss out

Despite getting smoked by Georgia in the opening game of the 2024 college football season, the Clemson Tigers went on to win 10 games and the ACC conference championship to secure a spot in the College Football Playoff. The Tigers are the favorites at top sportsbooks to repeat as conference champions and get back to the 12-team bracket, though Miami, SMU and a few other challengers will be looking to dethrone them in 2025. Here's a look at our best ACC futures bets for the upcoming season based on projection model simulations and the corresponding value offered by oddsmakers.

ACC best futures bets 

Best win totals

Miami Under 9.5 Wins (-145, Hard Rock)

Miami won 10 regular season games last season, but the Hurricanes are essentially swapping a game against Ball State for a game against Notre Dame this year. We think Miami will take a step back without Cam Ward and we also think in-state rivals Florida State and Florida will be tougher competitors this season. Bet on Miami's win total at FanDuel here:

SMU Over 8.5 Wins (-115, DraftKings)

This ties into our Miami play, as we like SMU's chances to beat the Hurricanes at home more than the oddsmakers. SMU returns a good amount of production from last year's 11-1 team. The Mustangs play Clemson on the road, but they get Louisville and Miami at home, as well as Baylor during the non-conference schedule. Sign up for DraftKings to bet on SMU's win total here:

Duke Over 6.5 Wins (-175, DraftKings)

This play is juicy, but Over 6.5 wins for Duke is as high as -210 in other books. The Blue Devils have a lot of 50-50 games on the schedule, but they also only have one game (at Clemson) where they are winning in less than 30% of simulations. Darian Mensah could very well be an upgrade at quarterback over Maalik Murphy.

NC State Under 6.5 Wins (-134, FanDuel)

NC State is going through a bit of a rebuild and while CJ Bailey showed signs of having potential as true freshman, he still is relatively raw. NC State has to play most of the top teams in the ACC outside of Louisville, and the Wolfpack also have Notre Dame on their schedule.

Wake Forest Under 1.5 Conference Wins (+110, DraftKings)

Rather than going with Under 4.5 wins at -120, the play is Under 1.5 conference wins at +110. Wake plays Delaware, Western Carolina, and Kennesaw State in the non-conference but has a brutal conference schedule. The only game we give the Demon Deacons a 40% chance of winning is against NC State at home.

Best bets to make College Football Playoff

Miami to Miss the Playoff (-215, DraftKings)

We have Miami making the playoff in just 14.4% of simulations, meaning we'd set the line closer to -400 for them to miss the bracket. We don't think this team will be better than last year's group that had Cam Ward, and now the Hurricanes play Notre Dame and what should be an improved Florida team from a year ago.

SMU to Make the Playoff (+420, FanDuel)

We don't think there is much of a drop from last year's team that made the playoff to this team. SMU will also have Kevin Jennings as the starting quarterback at the beginning of the season after taking over for Preston Stone a few weeks into last season. Don't let his playoff performance in bad weather at Penn State cloud your judgement too much. 

The rest

Sprinkle Louisville (+850) and Georgia Tech (+1100) to win ACC

We have fair value on both of these bets, but we think the ACC is more open than the oddsmakers believe. 

Will Clemson live up to the hype?

We aren't high on Clemson because the Tigers went 0-3 against the SEC last season, lost to Louisville and struggled to put some lesser ACC teams away. We give them about a 50% chance to make the playoff, but the Tigers have not dominated their ACC opponents like they did from 2015-20.