Aces' late-season surge: Las Vegas turns things around, but can A'ja Wilson and Co. make run in WNBA playoffs?

At the WNBA All-Star break, the Las Vegas Aces were .500 and clinging to the eighth and final playoff spot. A month later, they've won five in a row and seven of their last eight to improve to 19-14, and have sole possession of fifth place. With just one game separating them from the fourth-place Phoenix Mercury, the Aces have a real chance to earn homecourt advantage in the first round of the playoffs. 

How have the Aces turned things around? And what does their hot streak say about their playoff hopes? Ahead of a big game against the Mercury on Friday night, let's take a closer look. 

Loyd is thriving off the bench

In a 31-point loss to the Minnesota Lynx on July 25, Jewell Loyd scored zero points on 0 of 10 from the field. Not only was that the first time that Loyd had gone scoreless in a full game -- she had zero points in a 2019 loss to the Aces when she played for the Seattle Storm, but left that game with an injury in the first quarter -- it was just the 16th time in WNBA history that a player had failed to score while taking at least 10 field goal attempts. 

A few days later, Aces coach Becky Hammon removed Loyd from the starting lineup. When Loyd came off the bench in the Aces' win over the Dallas Wings on July 27, it was the first time she had done so since 2019, and just the seventh time since her rookie season. 

Loyd put up 20 points against the Wings and has since settled in nicely in the sixth woman role. In eight games off the bench, Loyd has three 20-point games, the same amount she had in 25 games as a starter. Here's a look at her splits:

The Aces gave up Kelsey Plum and their 2026 first-round pick in the winter to acquire Loyd, and her poor play over the first two months of the season was a major reason why the team struggled. Even during this hot streak, Loyd still isn't matching what Plum gave the Aces in the same role last season, but she's at least coming close, and that's all they needed.

Doing all the little things

After an embarrassing 27-point loss to the expansion Golden State Valkyries early in the season, Hammon ripped her team. 

"It's us being soft mentally and letting people punk us ... and whining instead of buckling down and saying, 'OK, if that's what it's going to be, let's go,'" Hammon said. "I told them effort has to come from your heart. The schemes, the discipline, the habits -- that's your head. Right now, we not only have a heart issue, but it's [becoming] a head issue.

"I'm not going to coach effort. It's one thing I can't deal with. You are in charge of your effort. ... I've never been a coach to pull for mistakes, but I will pull for effort."

The Aces have taken that message to heart. 

During this turnaround, the Aces are doing all the little things that add up to wins. Take Wednesday's victory over the reigning champion New York Liberty, for example. The Aces shot just 38.5% from the field, but were still able to win because they got to the line for 28 free throws, turned 14 offensive rebounds into 13 second-chance points and only turned the ball over 10 times. 

Here's where the Aces rank in some key hustle categories over this eight-game hot streak compared to the first few months of the season. 

The Aces are dominating the offensive glass lately and turning those extra possessions into points. They've also been limiting opponents' points off turnovers, which speaks to better effort in transition defense. The only area where they've actually slightly dropped off is free-throw rate, but that's due to two games during this stretch where they only took eight free throws. During their five-game winning streak, in particular, their free-throw rate is .331, which ranks first in the league in that span. 

A favorable schedule

Here's a look at the teams the Aces have beaten during this run, in chronological order:

• Dallas Wings (11th place)
• Los Angeles Sparks (9th place)
• Golden State Valkyries x2 (7th place) 
• Seattle Storm (8th place)
• Connecticut Sun (13th place)
• New York Liberty (3rd place)

Is that the easiest schedule of all time? No, but it's certainly a favorable one. The Aces have only played two teams above them in the standings over the last eight games. The results? A historic 53-point loss to the league-leading Minnesota Lynx and a narrow six-point win over the Liberty, who were without Breanna Stewart and playing their third game in four nights, and the second of a road back-to-back. 

You can only play who's in front of you, but the Aces' competition over the last few weeks has made it difficult to figure out how much stock to put in their improved play. 

Are the Aces a real playoff threat?

The Aces have been to at least the semifinals of the playoffs every single season since 2019, but that streak may be in jeopardy this season. Even if they can get through the first round and into the semis, which is much more likely thanks to this hot streak that should ensure they avoid the Lynx or Liberty, it's still hard to see them as a true contender. 

Here's a look at the Aces' performances against the Lynx, Liberty, Atlanta Dream and Mercury, who have been the top-four teams in the league for the majority of the season:

vs. Lynx (0-3)

• 14-point loss
• 31-point loss
• 53-point loss

vs. Liberty (1-2)

• 14-point loss
• 9-point loss
• 6-point win

vs. Dream (1-0)

• 15-point win

vs. Mercury (1-1)

• 6-point loss
• 3-point win

The Aces are 3-6 against the top-four teams and 16-8 against everyone else. They still have A'ja Wilson, and no one is going to sign up to play them in a best-of-three first round that she could win by herself, but you need more than one player to win a title. 

For what it's worth, Vegas does not see them as a true contender. Even amid this late-season surge, the Aces have the sixth-best title odds (+2500), per Caesars Sportsbook. That sounds about right. Could they win a series? Yes. Could they win three consecutive series? Extremely unlikely. 

Jackie Young, who made her fourth consecutive All-Star appearance this season, has been the only other constant for the Aces. Loyd has been much better since moving to the bench, but it's fair to wonder if she'll keep shooting so well, and Chelsea Gray has never gotten back to her pre-injury form since fracturing her foot in the 2023 Finals. As for the Aces' supporting cast, NaLyssa Smith has been solid since arriving in a mid-season trade from the Dallas Wings, but no one who comes off the bench is shooting better than 39% this season.