UFC 321 predictions, odds, best bets: Prop picks for the title fights, Umar Nurmagomedov among top choices

Tom Aspinall makes the first defense of his heavyweight championship in the main event of Saturday's UFC 321 card from Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi. Aspinall, who was promoted from interim to full champion when Jon Jones retired and vacated the title, will defend his title against two-time title challenger Ciryl Gane.

Gane failed to capture the title when he lost a decision to Francis Ngannou in 2022 and again when he was quickly submitted by Jones in 2023. Those are the only losses in Gane's career, and he now looks to make good on his third opportunity at gold when he faces Aspinall.

Aspinall has been a force of nature, with only one of his nine UFC fights reaching the end of the first round. His lone UFC loss came when he suffered a freak knee injury just 15 seconds into his 2022 bout with Curtis Blaydes.

Tom Aspinall over Jon Jones' drama as he preps for first undisputed title defense: 'I just wanted to fight'

Shakiel Mahjouri

Another title will be on the line on Saturday when Virna Jandiroba and Mackenzie Dern meet in the co-main event with the vacant women's strawweight title on the line. The fight is a rematch of a 2020 clash that Dern won by decision.

After a strong 4-1 night for our best bets for UFC 320 (including hitting on Youssef Zalal via submission at +450), our 2025 record sits at 24-19. We'll look to get our roll going again on Saturday, with our only rule remaining that all bets must be at odds of -250 or better. Let's take a look at this week's picks with odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Aleksandar Rakic vs. Azamat Murzakanov 

Aleksandar Rakic moneyline (-112)

Rakic has far more experience than Murzakanov against high-level opposition. Of course, Rakic has lost to most of that high-level opposition. That includes a three-fight losing skid against Jan Błachowicz, Jiri Prochazka and Magomed Ankalaev. Ignoring experience under the brightest of lights, Rakic does have an undeniably massive size advantage at 6-foot-5 to Murzakanov's 5-foot-10. Being short for the light heavyweight division hasn't held back Murzakanov, as he has piled up a 15-0 record, with just three fights going to the scorecards. One of those wins was over Dustin Jacoby, who stands 6-foot-4. With the fight basically a pick 'em, we're looking for any edge for either man, and Rakic's ability to utilize his reach in most fights, combined with having a seven-inch reach advantage going into this fight, should be enough of an edge to side with him.

Alexander Volkov vs. Jailton Almeida

Alexander Volkov moneyline (+164)

It has to be very frustrating for Volkov to be fighting on the undercard while Gane fights for the title in the main event. After all, Volkov's UFC 310 loss to Gane was seen as an absurd miscarriage of justice by the cageside judges. Had Volkov gotten what is seen as a deserved victory, he would be fighting against Aspinall for UFC gold for the first time since joining the promotion in 2016. Instead of Aspinall, Volkov is set to face Almeida, a grappling specialist who uses a flurry of takedowns to overwhelm opponents before dominating positionally on the ground. The trouble for Almeida is that he'll have to navigate the 80-inch reach from a man who has finally locked in on how powerful a weapon his jab is in recent years. Volkov's wrestling is good, not great, but he should be able to punish Almeida as the Brazilian attempts to close distance and grind for takedowns. This is likely to be a tough fight for both men, but Volkov as an underdog feels like a good line.

Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Mario Bautista

Umar Nurmagomedov via decision (-165)

The line feels off in this fight. Bautista is a genuine pain to fight. In his last three, Bautista nullified Ricky Simon's wrestling, frustrated Jose Aldo on the feet, and ran circles around Patchy Mix. Nurmagomedov has a good deal of hype behind him, but he has shown some vulnerabilities that a fighter like Bautista could exploit. That said, this feels like a fight Nurmagomedov wins, just not one he runs away with. If Nurmagomedov scored a stoppage of Bautista, I'd argue that would be the most impressive accomplishment of his career. Instead, I figure this goes to the scorecards, where Nurmagomedov locks down another shot at Merab Dvalishvili and the bantamweight title in 2026.

Virna Jandiroba vs. Mackenzie Dern

Fight to go the distance: Yes (-110)

I'm a little shocked the fight going the distance is only -110. The two went to a decision in their 2020 battle, and there's not much reason to think either is set to finish the other. Both women are at their best when grappling and somewhat nullify each other in that space. Dern may be the slightly better striker, but she's not spectacular on the feet and sometimes falls in love with trying to be a kickboxer to her own detriment. This feels like a fight that's destined for five somewhat ugly rounds in a division where roughly two-thirds of fights hit the scorecards.

Tom Aspinall vs. Ciryl Gane

Under 1.5 rounds (-105)

I don't have much interest in betting this fight beyond the Aspinall moneyline being a nice parlay addition at -345. That line is too high for our Best Bet rules, though, so we have to look elsewhere. Aspinall could win by knockout or submission, making for a tough pick there. I will eliminate Gane winning because I simply think this is a terrible fight for him. He's been outwrestled by Francis Ngannou and his striking, while solid, is not utilized in the same explosive nature as what Aspinall does. Looking for the right odds, we're going to lean with Aspinall continuing to do what he does and getting out of the Octagon quickly.