NBA awards predictions: Expert picks for MVP, Defensive Player of the Year and more

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Here's a fun fact for you: last season, every major NBA award (MVP, Defensive Player of the Year, Most Improved Player, Rookie of the Year, Sixth Man of the Year and Coach of the Year) went to first-time winners. That might not sound especially rare (and obviously Rookie of the Year is always a first-time winner), but it is. It hadn't happened since the 2014-15 season, meaning we went a full decade without a slate full of newcomers.

It was a fitting footnote in the parity era. League rules have tried to level the competitive playing field, and the obvious result has been seven new champions in seven years. Is it possible that this league-wide trend also affects individual players? Maybe. Many of these awards are implicitly linked to team performance, after all, and if it's harder for a team to remain competitive, it would therefore be harder for its players to to stay in these races.

The counterargument, here, is that we are just going through a changing of the guard. Reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is 27. So is reigning Sixth Man of the Year Payton Pritchard. Reigning Defensive Player of the Year Evan Mobley is 24, and he won largely because the even younger Victor Wembanyama (21 years old) was ineligible. Maybe this is a league-wide trend. Maybe it's a passing of the generational torch.

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What do our experts have to say? Below, the CBS Sports NBA staff has picked its expected winners for those six major awards as the new season begins on Tuesday night.

2025-26 NBA awards: Expert picks

Most Valuable Player

Award	Brad Botkin	John Gonzalez	James Herbert	Robby Kalland	Jack Maloney	Sam Quinn	Colin Ward-Henninger	Jasmyn Wimbish
MVP	Nikola JokiÄ	Nikola JokiÄ	Nikola JokiÄ	Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	Nikola JokiÄ	Nikola JokiÄ	Anthony Edwards	Luka DonÄiÄ

Defensive Player of the Year

Award	Brad Botkin	John Gonzalez	James Herbert	Robby Kalland	Jack Maloney	Sam Quinn	Colin Ward-Henninger	Jasmyn Wimbish
DPOY	Victor Wembanyama	Victor Wembanyama	Victor Wembanyama	Victor Wembanyama	Victor Wembanyama	Victor Wembanyama	Amen Thompson	Victor Wembanyama

Coach of the Year

Award	Brad Botkin	John Gonzalez	James Herbert	Robby Kalland	Jack Maloney	Sam Quinn	Colin Ward-Henninger	Jasmyn Wimbish
COY	Ime Udoka	Jamahl Mosley	David Adelman	Quin Snyder	Quin Snyder	Ime Udoka	Jamahl Mosley	Jamahl Mosley

Rookie of the Year

Award	Brad Botkin	John Gonzalez	James Herbert	Robby Kalland	Jack Maloney	Sam Quinn	Colin Ward-Henninger	Jasmyn Wimbish
ROY	Cooper Flagg	Cooper Flagg	Cooper Flagg	Cooper Flagg	Cooper Flagg	Cooper Flagg	Cooper Flagg	Cooper Flagg

Sixth Man of the Year

Award	Brad Botkin	John Gonzalez	James Herbert	Robby Kalland	Jack Maloney	Sam Quinn	Colin Ward-Henninger	Jasmyn Wimbish
6MOY	Quentin Grimes	Naz Reid	Alex Caruso	Josh Hart	Naz Reid	Lonzo Ball	Miles McBride	Naz Reid

Most Improved Player

Award	Brad Botkin	John Gonzalez	James Herbert	Robby Kalland	Jack Maloney	Sam Quinn	Colin Ward-Henninger	Jasmyn Wimbish
MIP	Zaccharie Risacher	Amen Thompson	Christian Braun	Amen Thompson	Ausar Thompson	Shaedon Sharpe	Toumani Camara	Amen Thompson

Expert explanations

Botkin: Of the five players who have won at least four career MVPs, only three of them have won four in a six-year span: Michael Jordan, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and Bill Russell. JokiÄ becomes the fourth this season. He's the best player in the world. Everyone knows it. And Denver is going to be very good in a tightly packed Western Conference. Wemby is a lock for DPOY if he makes the 65-game threshold, and Cooper Flagg is already so damn good it's hard to imagine anyone else winning ROY. I think the Rockets are going to have a huge season despite the Fred VanVleet injury, so Udoka takes COY. And I really like Risacher in Atlanta for Most Improved. He played, and shot, very well down the stretch for Atlanta last season, and he's in a perfect position to build on that significantly this year on what should be a good Hawks team.

Gonzalez: JokiÄ has won three of the last five MVP awards, and there's a case to be made that he should have won the other two as well. At this point we've almost reached universal consensus that he's the best player in the world.

The only sure bet here is Wemby taking home Defensive Player of the Year, provided he clears the 65-game threshold required to qualify for awards. A year ago he was limited to 46 games when he was shut down due to deep vein thrombosis in his right shoulder. Even in a truncated season he led the league with 176 blocks -- which was 28 more than Brook Lopez, who finished second in that category and played 80 games. If he stays healthy, Wemby will have a stranglehold on this award for years to come.

Losing Fred Van Vleet to a season-ending ACL injury was a big blow for the Rockets. But as silver linings in dark injury clouds go, Point Amen with the ball in his hands and license to wreak havoc on the opposition with his other worldly athleticism isn't bad.

Herbert: My picks for MVP, DPOY and ROY require no explanation. My COY pick is a vote of confidence in the Nuggets, who I'm projecting to have an incredible season. I know Caruso is an unconventional choice -- 6MOY usually goes to sparkplug scorers -- but I think he's the best reserve in the NBA and his on/off numbers are going to be insane. Braun takes a significant step forward every year, and I'm anticipating an MIP-worthy bump in scoring and 3-point shooting this season.

Kalland: I expect the MVP race to be extremely similar to last year, with it coming down to SGA vs. JokiÄ, and I think SGA comes away with a second straight award. I don't expect a major championship hangover in the regular season for the Thunder, and if they finish with the league's best record again and SGA keeps up the statistical profile of what he's done the last three years, he'll be hard to catch. I also see Denver being better as a team, but in a way that might lighten the load a bit for JokiÄ in terms of his offensive burden, which may cause him to cede the MVP to SGA but benefit the Nuggets' in their pursuit of another title.

If Wembanyama and Flagg play enough, they'll be the DPOY and ROY respectively. I believe in the Hawks this year as a top-four team in the East, and think they'll edge Orlando in the division to give Snyder COY honors over Jamahl Mosley. If Mitchell Robinson is healthy enough for the Knicks to keep Josh Hart in a bench role for the majority of the year, I think he can run away with 6MOY. MIP is often the "you became an All-Star this year" award for a guy who made a bigger leap the year before, and this season I think that player is Amen Thompson. He got a ton of buzz last year and will be on everyone's radar coming into this season, and will have an even bigger on-ball role with the Rockets needing to shuffle their point guard situation around with Fred VanVleet's injury.

Maloney: JokiÄ, who hasn't finished worse than second in MVP voting since 2020, has a great chance to join that exclusive four-MVP club this season. He's extremely durable and is going to put up absurd numbers. And after a somewhat disappointing 2024-25 campaign, the Nuggets made a number of smart offseason moves that should help them win more games and finish closer to the top of the Western Conference standings.

As for DPOY and ROY, Wembanyama and Flagg are so obvious that there's not much to discuss. Snyder has always been a highly regarded coach, and the Hawks' offseason moves have them set up for success. If they can finish in the top three in the East, COY should be Snyder's award to lose. Reid won 6MOY in 2024 and had even better numbers last season. As long as he remains a back-up in Minnesota, he'll be a leading contender for that honor. MIP is always a bit of a conundrum, but one of the Thompson twins feels like a good bet this season. Amen already made a leap last season, so perhaps it's Ausar's time to join him.

Quinn: The widespread belief around the league is that JokiÄ remains the best player in basketball, but Gilgeous-Alexander won 18 more games. If you believe that gap will be smaller this season, and that voter fatigue will affect Gilgeous-Alexander as it has so many other candidates, JokiÄ should be the preseason favorite. Wembanyama and Flagg are obvious favorites. The question isn't whether they should be picked against any other candidate. It's whether they're likelier to win than the rest of the field. Every team Udoka has coached has improved by at least 10 wins. That likely won't be the case this year, but if the Rockets take a step without Fred VanVleet, he'll finally get rewarded by voters. Ball brings both point of attack defense and transition playmaking that Cleveland lacked last season. Without an obvious winner, he should grab the Cavaliers slot that Ty Jerome vacated in this race. Sharpe is an athletic freak who has improved with each passing year. With Scoot Henderson out and Portland's defense looking strong, Sharpe has a chance to be the offensive engine for a competitive team. Expect him to run with that opportunity.

Ward-Henninger: We all know how heavily narrative plays in MVP selection, and if the Wolves are as good as I think they're going to be this season (behind OKC, neck-and-neck with Denver), the "this is Ant's time" chorus will be loud and persistent. Obviously Victor Wembanyama is the best defensive player in the world, but it's hard for me to envision him playing 65 games this season, which leaves Thompson as the next demon in line. I'm also seriously going out on a limb with my Flagg prediction, so, yeah, call me crazy, but I just like the kid for some reason.

Out East, I think that the Magic have a chance to be right there with the Knicks and Cavs at the top of the Eastern Conference, and that will finally earn Mosley some long overdue recognition. The Knicks won't walk away empty-handed though, since Mike Brown's offense will unlock McBride in a way that Tom Thibodeau never could, and he could have a Payton Pritchard-like impact on what could be the best team in the conference. Finally, selecting Most Improved is an almost impossible task, but I picked Camara since I think his offense is going to make significant strides this season in Portland after making a career on his lockdown defense.

Wimbish: With DonÄiÄ's new transformation, LeBron being injured to start the season (and the cautiousness the Lakers will have with him going forward) and Luka wanting to exact revenge after an emotional rollercoaster last season, I think we're in store for an MVP year from him. DonÄiÄ typically starts the season incredibly slow because he's playing himself into shape. But with his focus on nutrition and overall physical health being the theme of how he spent his summer, that trend might change, DonÄiÄ could have the best season of his career yet. If he's able to will this average Lakers team to a top-six seed, then there's even more ammo for his MVP case. It won't be easy as SGA and JokiÄ will certainly be among the favorites for the award, but if Luka can maintain an elite level of play over the course of the season and overachieve with this Lakers roster, he should have the narrative to win MVP.