Vegas Golden Knights Finish the Season 43-39 and They are Projected to Win 47 Next Season... Still a Strong Second Seed in the West

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PLAYOFF FORECAST

They have a 57.2% chance of getting past the first round of the playoffs. They have a 33.4% chance of getting past round 2. Their chances of then winning the West is 19.7%. They have 9.4% chance of winning the championship.

REGULAR SEASON RECAP

The sum of all of their regular season money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 46.5 wins. Their 43 actual wins was below expectation. They didn't meet expectations on the road and at home. They won 46.3% on the road which was worse than expected (51.5%). They won 24 at home and were expected to win 25.4.

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TEAM STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES

Their record should be better. Since 10/3/2018 their average goal differential is +0.22 (includes playoff games) which ranks #12 in the league, but their rank based on points (per game) is #16. This is a relatively better home team than a road team. They are the #4 ranked team in goal differential in home games, vs #18 in road games.

OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

SituationGoalsGoal%Shots on Goal
All 89 Games3.04 (#13)8.9% (#21)34.4 (#1)
Road2.84 (#15)8.7% (#21)32.7 (#6)
Home3.25 (#11)9% (#24)36 (#2)

DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):

SituationGoals AllowedSave%Shots Against
All2.82 (#11)90.4% (#18)29.5 (#6)
Road3.27 (#20)89.3% (#2330.4 (#6)
Home2.36 (#3)91.7% (#5)28.6 (#7)

TEAM STATS AND BETTING RESULT GAMELOG

Below is a betting recap of all 82 regular games. Anyone who backed the Golden Knights in all of their games would be down -709 units. Against the puck line, they have lost -788 units risking 100 units on each pick (32-50 PL). The Golden Knights have lost against the puck line on the road, but at home they have turned a profit.

Season RecapGS-GAMoney LinePuck Line RecordO/U RecordSOGSOG Allowed
All Games3.0 - 2.843-32-7, -70932-50, -78837-41 52.6% Under34.329.2
On Road2.9 - 3.119-20-2, -70913-28, -125722-19 53.7% Over3329.8
At Home3.2 - 2.524-12-5, -36119-22, +46915-22 59.5% Under35.628.6
4/6 @LA2-5Loss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Over 5.53132
4/4 ARI1-4Loss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Under 5.53841
4/1 EDM3-1Win +40Covered -1.5Under 6.53119
3/30 @SJ3-4 OTLoss -100Covered +1.5Over 6.52634
3/29 MIN2-3Loss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Under 5.53732
3/27 @COL3-4Loss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Over 5.53730
3/25 @STL1-3Loss -100Puck Line Loss +1.5Under 5.52522
3/23 DET2-3 OTLoss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Under 63026
3/21 WPG5-0Win +55Covered -1.5Under 6.53820
3/18 @SJ7-3Win +160Covered +1.5Over 6.54239
3/17 EDM6-3Win +43Covered -1.5Over 63419
3/15 @DAL2-1Win +68Puck Line Loss -1.5Under 5.53741
3/10 @CGY3-6Loss -100Puck Line Loss +1.5Over 62835
3/9 @VAN6-2Win +47Covered -1.5Over 63331
3/6 CGY2-1Win +67Puck Line Loss -1.5Under 6.53834
3/3 VAN3-0Win +38Covered -1.5Under 64819
3/1 @ANA3-0Win +50Covered -1.5Under 5.53434
2/28 FLA6-5Win +53Puck Line Loss -1.5Over 6.54637
2/26 DAL4-1Win +50Covered -1.5Under 5.54824
2/22 WPG3-6Loss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Over 63229
2/20 BOS2-3 OTLoss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Under 5.53327
2/18 @COL0-3Loss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Under 64038
2/16 NSH5-1Win +79Covered -1.5Over 5.55030
2/14 TOR3-6Loss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Over 6.53343
2/12 ARI2-5Loss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Over 5.54326
2/9 CLB3-4Loss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Over 62333
2/7 @DET4-3Win +62Puck Line Loss -1.5Over 5.53239
2/5 @TB3-2Win +128Covered +1.5Under 6.53726
2/2 @FLA1-3Loss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Under 63525
2/1 @CAR2-5Loss -100Puck Line Loss +1.5Over 62532
1/23 NSH1-2Loss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Under 64827
1/21 MIN2-4Loss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Push 63222
1/19 PIT7-3Win +62Covered -1.5Over 6.53537
1/15 @WPG1-4Loss -100Puck Line Loss +1.5Under 6.54427
1/12 @CHI4-3Win +56Puck Line Loss -1.5Over 6.53323
1/10 SJ2-3Loss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Under 63827
1/8 NYR4-2Win +35Covered -1.5Push 63129
1/6 NJ3-2Win +50Puck Line Loss -1.5Under 62838
1/4 @ANA3-2Win +73Puck Line Loss -1.5Under 5.54227
1/1 LA2-0Win +38Covered -1.5Under 5.54817
12/30 @ARI5-1Win +70Covered -1.5Over 5.53730
12/29 @LA4-1Win +80Covered -1.5Under 5.53231
12/27 COL2-1Win +69Puck Line Loss -1.5Under 64332
12/23 LA3-4 OTLoss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Over 62532
12/22 MON3-4 OTLoss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Over 62647
12/20 NYI4-2Win +54Covered -1.5Push 64721
12/17 @CLB0-1Loss -100Covered +1.5Under 6.52831
12/16 @NYR4-3Win +66Puck Line Loss -1.5Over 64130
12/14 @NJ4-5 OTLoss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Over 62242
12/12 @NYI3-2Win +71Puck Line Loss -1.5Under 61725
12/9 DAL4-2Win +65Covered -1.5Push 62824
12/8 @LA1-5Loss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Over 5.53025
12/6 CHI4-3Win +37Puck Line Loss -1.5Over 63635
12/4 WAS5-3Win +64Covered -1.5Over 62826
12/1 @EDM1-2Loss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Under 5.53234
11/29 @VAN4-3Win +61Puck Line Loss -1.5Over 63136
11/27 @CHI8-3Win +76Covered -1.5Over 5.54324
11/24 SJ6-0Win +92Covered +1.5Over 5.53633
11/23 CGY2-0Win +73Covered -1.5Under 62829
11/21 @ARI3-2Win +86Puck Line Loss -1.5Under 5.52521
11/19 @CGY2-7Loss -100Puck Line Loss +1.5Over 5.52232
11/18 @EDM6-3Win +86Covered -1.5Over 5.53132
11/16 STL1-4Loss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Under 5.53335
11/14 ANA5-0Win +56Covered -1.5Under 5.52529
11/11 @BOS1-4Loss -100Puck Line Loss +1.5Under 5.53837
11/10 @MON4-5Loss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Over 5.53827
11/8 @OTT5-3Win +60Covered -1.5Over 5.54230
11/6 @TOR1-3Loss -100Puck Line Loss +1.5Under 5.53721
11/3 CAR3-0Win +71Covered -1.5Under 5.52534
11/1 @STL3-5Loss -100Puck Line Loss +1.5Over 63426
10/30 @NSH1-4Loss -100Puck Line Loss +1.5Under 5.52428
10/28 OTT4-3Win +42Puck Line Loss -1.5Over 65322
10/26 TB2-3Loss -100Covered +1.5Under 5.53123
10/24 VAN2-3 OTLoss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Under 5.53526
10/20 ANA3-1Win +57Covered -1.5Under 5.54518
10/16 BUF4-1Win +49Covered -1.5Under 5.52927
10/13 @PHI1-0Win +91Covered +1.5Under 62126
10/11 @PIT2-4Loss -100Puck Line Loss +1.5Under 6.53722
10/10 @WAS2-5Loss -100Puck Line Loss +1.5Over 63129
10/8 @BUF2-4Loss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Over 5.53717
10/6 @MIN2-1Win +100Covered +1.5Under 5.54230
10/4 PHI2-5Loss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Over 62525