St. Louis Blues Have a 45% Chance of Winning the Championship

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The road team has held its own in the Stanley Cup Finals and even thought the Blues blew it at home, they do have nearly a 50% chance of winning Game 7.

REGULAR SEASON RECAP

The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 42.8 wins. Their 45 actual wins was above expectation. They won more games than expected at home and on the road. They won 51.2% on the road which was better than expected (48.4%). They won 24 at home and were expected to win 23.

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TEAM STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES

Their record is better than it should be. Their average goal differential is +0.28 which ranks #9 in the league, but their rank based on points (per game) is #6. This is a relatively better road team than a home team. They are the #5 ranked team in goal differential in road games, vs #18 in home games. Their average goal differential in their past 5 games is -0.6 which ranks them #2 over this stretch, slightly better than the season overall.

OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

SituationGoalsGoal%Shots on Goal
All 106 Games2.96 (#15)9.4% (#15)31.5 (#17)
Road2.81 (#16)9.1% (#18)31.1 (#16)
Home3.11 (#15)9.8% (#13)31.9 (#17)
Last 5 Games2.6 (#2)9% (#2)29 (#2)

DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):

SituationGoals AllowedSave%Shots Against
All2.68 (#5)90.6% (#14)28.5 (#2)
Road2.4 (#1)91.7% (#528.8 (#2)
Home2.96 (#20)89.5% (#29)28.2 (#5)
Last 5 Games3.2 (#2)89.1% (#2)29.4 (#2)

TEAM STATS AND BETTING RESULT GAMELOG

Below is a betting recap of all 82 regular games. Anyone who backed the Blues in all of their games would have earned a +408 unit profit at a 100 per game risk. Against the puck line, they have lost -527 units risking 100 units on each pick (40-42 PL).

Season RecapGS-GAMoney LinePuck Line RecordO/U RecordSOGSOG Allowed
All Games3.0 - 2.745-28-9, +40840-42, -52734-44 56.4% Under31.828.5
On Road2.7 - 2.421-13-7, +32324-17, -5514-24 63.2% Under31.628.9
At Home3.3 - 3.024-15-2, +5916-25, -47220-20 50% Over31.928.1
4/6 VAN3-2Win +36Puck Line Loss -1.5Under 5.53625
4/4 PHI7-3Win +49Covered -1.5Over 63529
4/3 @CHI3-4 OTLoss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Over 64038
4/1 COL3-2Win +61Puck Line Loss -1.5Under 5.52726
3/30 @NJ3-2Win +43Puck Line Loss -1.5Under 5.52727
3/29 @NYR2-4Loss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Over 5.54625
3/25 LV3-1Win +71Covered -1.5Under 5.52225
3/23 TB4-3Win +95Puck Line Loss -1.5Over 62642
3/21 DET5-2Win +27Covered -1.5Over 5.52420
3/19 EDM7-2Win +47Covered -1.5Over 5.54417
3/17 @BUF3-4 OTLoss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Over 5.53334
3/16 @PIT5-1Win +115Covered +1.5Push 62641
3/14 @OTT0-2Loss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Under 63516
3/12 ARI1-3Loss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Under 5.54022
3/9 @SJ2-3 OTLoss -100Covered +1.5Under 61933
3/7 @LA4-0Win +53Covered -1.5Under 5.53228
3/6 @ANA5-4Win +54Puck Line Loss -1.5Over 5.53327
3/2 DAL1-4Loss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Under 5.53021
3/1 @CAR2-5Loss -100Puck Line Loss +1.5Over 5.52324
2/26 NSH2-0Win +66Covered -1.5Under 5.54419
2/24 @MIN1-2 OTLoss -100Covered +1.5Under 5.52835
2/23 BOS2-1Win +76Puck Line Loss -1.5Under 5.52932
2/21 @DAL2-5Loss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Over 54525
2/19 TOR3-2Win +88Puck Line Loss -1.5Under 64133
2/17 @MIN4-0Win +91Covered +1.5Under 5.53031
2/16 @COL3-0Win +80Covered -1.5Under 63332
2/14 @ARI4-0Win +64Covered -1.5Under 5.52421
2/12 NJ8-3Win +43Covered -1.5Over 5.53923
2/10 @NSH5-4Win +144Covered +1.5Over 5.52944
2/9 NSH3-2Win +83Puck Line Loss -1.5Under 5.53331
2/7 @TB1-0Win +155Covered +1.5Under 63932
2/5 @FLA3-2Win +86Puck Line Loss -1.5Under 63424
2/2 @CLB4-2Win +100Covered +1.5Push 63320
1/23 @ANA5-1Win +76Covered -1.5Over 5.53213
1/21 @LA3-4Loss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Over 5.53629
1/19 OTT3-2Win +45Puck Line Loss -1.5Under 6.53830
1/17 @BOS2-5Loss -100Puck Line Loss +1.5Over 5.53027
1/15 @NYI1-2 OTLoss -100Covered +1.5Under 5.53125
1/14 @WAS4-1Win +135Covered +1.5Under 5.53729
1/12 @DAL3-1Win +135Covered +1.5Under 5.52822
1/10 MON4-1Win +76Covered -1.5Under 5.53029
1/8 DAL1-3Loss -100Puck Line Loss +1.5Under 5.52717
1/7 @PHI3-0Win +100Covered +1.5Under 63725
1/5 NYI3-4Loss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Over 5.53214
1/3 WAS5-2Win +115Covered +1.5Over 64225
12/31 NYR1-2Loss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Under 5.54023
12/29 PIT1-6Loss -100Puck Line Loss +1.5Over 63130
12/27 BUF4-1Win +74Covered -1.5Under 63231
12/22 @CGY3-1Win +165Covered +1.5Under 62729
12/20 @VAN1-5Loss -100Puck Line Loss +1.5Push 63029
12/18 @EDM4-1Win +125Covered +1.5Under 63023
12/16 CGY2-7Loss -100Puck Line Loss +1.5Over 62829
12/14 COL4-3Win +95Covered +1.5Over 6.52842
12/11 FLA4-3Win +83Puck Line Loss -1.5Over 63325
12/9 VAN1-6Loss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Over 62321
12/7 @WPG1-0Win +180Covered +1.5Under 62726
12/5 EDM2-3 OTLoss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Under 5.53036
12/1 @ARI1-6Loss -100Puck Line Loss +1.5Over 5.52644
11/30 @COL3-2Win +143Covered +1.5Under 63729
11/28 @DET3-4Loss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Over 5.53631
11/24 WPG4-8Loss -100Puck Line Loss +1.5Over 5.52736
11/23 NSH6-2Win +104Covered +1.5Over 5.53428
11/21 @NSH1-4Loss -100Puck Line Loss +1.5Under 5.52934
11/19 LA0-2Loss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Under 5.52927
11/17 @SJ0-4Loss -100Puck Line Loss +1.5Under 5.53029
11/16 @LV4-1Win +134Covered +1.5Under 5.53533
11/14 @CHI0-1Loss -100Covered +1.5Under 62819
11/11 MIN2-3Loss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Under 5.53118
11/9 SJ4-0Win +100Covered +1.5Under 63133
11/6 CAR4-1Win +95Covered +1.5Under 5.52039
11/3 MIN1-5Loss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Over 5.51645
11/1 LV5-3Win +83Covered -1.5Over 62634
10/27 CHI7-3Win +67Covered -1.5Over 63724
10/25 CLB4-7Loss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Over 63732
10/22 @WPG4-5 OTLoss -100Covered +1.5Over 63436
10/20 @TOR4-1Win +145Covered +1.5Under 62523
10/17 @MON2-3Loss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Under 5.52523
10/14 ANA2-3Loss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Under 5.53131
10/13 @CHI3-4 OTLoss -100Covered +1.5Over 63850
10/11 CGY5-3Win +80Covered -1.5Over 63234
10/6 CHI4-5 OTLoss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Over 63030
10/4 WPG1-5Loss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Push 64225