NHL Stanley Cup and Conference Futures: Golden Knights Sitting at #3

There is a huge 13.6% gap between East leaders. The Tampa Bay Lightning lead with a 32.2 percent chance of winning the East and the Toronto Maple Leafs are at 18.6%. The Maple Leafs may be closing the gap with their chances rising from 15.4%. While 5.76 may not seem like a lot of points, that amount of difference between the team with the #8 best record and the #9 best record is pretty large. There is not a lot of parity and power is concentrated at the top of the West with just 6 teams having at least a 4% chance of winning it.

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EAST FUTURESPROJ PTSWIN DIVPLAYOFFWIN EAST ODDSWIN EAST SIM
Tampa Bay Lightning110.354.7%98.7%3/1 (25%)32.2%
Toronto Maple Leafs103.720.7%93.7%5/1 (16.7%)18.6%
Washington Capitals103.251.6%93.0%10/1 (9.1%)16.5%
Boston Bruins103.620.3%93.9%6/1 (14.3%)12.5%
Pittsburgh Penguins97.522.1%79.3%10/1 (9.1%)7.9%
Carolina Hurricanes94.312.4%67.4%15/1 (6.2%)4.8%
Montreal Canadiens92.02.1%55.9%30/1 (3.2%)2.4%
Florida Panthers92.42.2%57.2%8/1 (11.1%)2.0%
Columbus Blue Jackets86.62.7%31.1%40/1 (2.4%)1.2%
New York Islanders87.63.2%35.4%15/1 (6.2%)0.7%
New York Rangers90.96.0%51.0%15/1 (6.2%)0.6%
Philadelphia Flyers85.82.0%27.6%20/1 (4.8%)0.6%
Detroit Red Wings78.10.0%6.4%50/1 (2%)--
Ottawa Senators77.40.0%5.5%150/1 (0.7%)--
New Jersey Devils72.20.0%1.6%15/1 (6.2%)--
Buffalo Sabres74.80.0%2.6%30/1 (3.2%)--

The percentage difference at the top of the West is small at 2.3%. The Vegas Golden Knights lead with a 19.3 percent chance of winning the West and the San Jose Sharks are at 17%. The gap seems to be widening. The Sharks chances are down from 21.2 percent. While 6.37 may not seem like a lot of points, that amount of difference between the team with the #8 best record and the #9 best record is pretty large. In terms of having a realistic chance of winning the West, there are 7 legitimate contenders (those with >=4% chance).

WEST FUTURES PROJ PTSWIN DIVPLAYOFFWIN WEST ODDSWIN WEST SIM
Vegas Golden Knights101.832.9%92.4%7/2 (22.2%)19.3%
San Jose Sharks103.241.1%94.5%8/1 (11.1%)17.0%
Colorado Avalanche98.119.0%81.7%5/1 (16.7%)14.4%
Calgary Flames99.322.4%87.2%10/1 (9.1%)13.6%
Winnipeg Jets100.427.8%87.8%10/1 (9.1%)12.9%
St. Louis Blues96.915.4%77.4%8/1 (11.1%)8.7%
Nashville Predators99.524.6%85.8%10/1 (9.1%)7.6%
Dallas Stars95.110.6%71.0%8/1 (11.1%)3.9%
Chicago Blackhawks88.72.6%39.7%20/1 (4.8%)1.3%
Arizona Coyotes88.52.4%41.7%15/1 (6.2%)0.7%
Vancouver Canucks83.50.8%20.6%25/1 (3.8%)0.3%
Edmonton Oilers80.90.4%13.1%30/1 (3.2%)0.1%
Minnesota Wild77.10.1%5.3%30/1 (3.2%)--
Anaheim Ducks72.70.0%1.9%40/1 (2.4%)--
Los Angeles Kings65.70.0%0.2%40/1 (2.4%)--

Getting into the playoffs will be the peak of the season for 3 teams. There are only 13 winning it all in at least two percent of simulations. At #2, the Maple Leafs have a 11 percent chance of winning the Stanley Cup, which is 12 percentage points behind the Lightning. The separation between the team with the #11 highest chances vs the #13 highest is 1.3 percentage points.

CHAMP CONTENDERSODDSODDS%SIM%TREND
Tampa Bay Lightning6/114.3%22.6%--
Toronto Maple Leafs10/19.1%10.7%UP
Vegas Golden Knights7/112.5%9.8%UP
Washington Capitals20/14.8%9.0%--
San Jose Sharks16/15.9%7.9%DOWN
Boston Bruins12/17.7%6.7%--
Colorado Avalanche10/19.1%6.0%UP
Calgary Flames20/14.8%5.9%DOWN
Winnipeg Jets20/14.8%5.5%--
Pittsburgh Penguins20/14.8%3.5%UP
St. Louis Blues16/15.9%3.4%--
Nashville Predators20/14.8%2.6%DOWN
Carolina Hurricanes30/13.2%2.1%UP
Dallas Stars16/15.9%1.3%UP