NHL Power Rankings Parity: Lightning #1 in East, Vegas Golden Knights #1 in West…But 10 Teams in Contention

1TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING 22.6% Chance of Winning Stanley Cup
Win 65% of Neutral Ice Sims and Projected for 110 Pts

They have a 71.2% chance of getting past the first round of the playoffs. They have a 45.9% chance of getting past round 2. Their chances of then winning the East is 32.2%. They have 22.6% chance of winning the championship. Their 62 regular season wins exceeded expectations. It was +12.6 above what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went much better than expected. They exceeded expectations on both the road and at home. They went 30-11 on the road and were expected to win 22.8. They won 32 at home and were expected to win 26.6.

2TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS 10.7% Chance of Winning Stanley Cup
Win 62% of Neutral Ice Sims and Projected for 104 Pts

They have a 57.5% chance of getting past the first round of the playoffs. They have a 30.3% chance of getting past round 2. Their chances of then winning the East is 18.6%. They have 10.7% chance of winning the championship. The regular season went worse than expected. They won 46 games vs an expected win total of 47.7. Home ice was not an advantage, at least not in terms of meeting expectations. They were OK on the road. Their 56.1% home win percentage was worse than expected (63%). They won 56.1% on the road which was better than expected (53.3%).

3VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS 9.8% Chance of Winning Stanley Cup
Win 59% of Neutral Ice Sims and Projected for 102 Pts

They have a 57% chance of getting past the first round of the playoffs. They have a 32.6% chance of getting past round 2. Their chances of then winning the West is 19.3%. They have 9.8% chance of winning the championship. The regular season went worse than expected. They won 43 games vs an expected win total of 46.5. They didn't meet expectations on the road and at home. Their 58.5% home win percentage was worse than expected (61.9%). They won 46.3% on the road which was worse than expected (51.5%).

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4WASHINGTON CAPITALS 9% Chance of Winning Stanley Cup
Win 59% of Neutral Ice Sims and Projected for 103 Pts

They have a 60.4% chance of getting past the first round of the playoffs. They have a 37.5% chance of getting past round 2. Their chances of then winning the East is 16.5%. They have 9% chance of winning the championship. The sum of all of their regular season money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 44.6 wins. Their 48 actual wins was above expectation. They exceeded expectations on the road. They went 24-17 on the road and were expected to win 20.3. They won 24 at home and were expected to win 24.3.

5SAN JOSE SHARKS 7.9% Chance of Winning Stanley Cup
Win 58% of Neutral Ice Sims and Projected for 103 Pts

They have a 57.1% chance of getting past the first round of the playoffs. They have a 30.8% chance of getting past round 2. Their chances of then winning the West is 17%. They have 7.9% chance of winning the championship. The sum of all of their regular season money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 47.3 wins. Their 46 actual wins was below expectation. They won 51.2% on the road which was as expected (52.9%). They won 25 at home and were expected to win 25.7.

6BOSTON BRUINS 6.7% Chance of Winning Stanley Cup
Win 59% of Neutral Ice Sims and Projected for 104 Pts

They have a 48.4% chance of getting past the first round of the playoffs. They have a 22.1% chance of getting past round 2. Their chances of then winning the East is 12.5%. They have 6.7% chance of winning the championship. The regular season went better than expected. They won 49 games vs an expected win total of 46.4. Their strength was at home. They went 20-21 on the road and were expected to win 20.9. Their 70.7% home win percentage was better than expected (62.3%).

7COLORADO AVALANCHE 6% Chance of Winning Stanley Cup
Win 58% of Neutral Ice Sims and Projected for 98 Pts

They have a 47.1% chance of getting past the first round of the playoffs. They have a 27.2% chance of getting past round 2. Their chances of then winning the West is 14.4%. They have 6% chance of winning the championship. Their 38 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -4 below what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went worse than expected. They didn't meet expectations on the road and at home. Their 51.2% home win percentage was worse than expected (56.7%). They won 41.5% on the road which was worse than expected (45.9%).

8CALGARY FLAMES 5.9% Chance of Winning Stanley Cup
Win 58% of Neutral Ice Sims and Projected for 99 Pts

They have a 47.8% chance of getting past the first round of the playoffs. They have a 23.9% chance of getting past round 2. Their chances of then winning the West is 13.6%. They have 5.9% chance of winning the championship. Their 50 regular season wins exceeded expectations. It was +4.1 above what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went better than expected. Their strength was in road games. They went 24-17 on the road and were expected to win 20.8. Their 63.4% home win percentage was as expected (61.1%).

9WINNIPEG JETS 5.5% Chance of Winning Stanley Cup
Win 56% of Neutral Ice Sims and Projected for 100 Pts

They have a 48.4% chance of getting past the first round of the playoffs. They have a 25.8% chance of getting past round 2. Their chances of then winning the West is 12.9%. They have 5.5% chance of winning the championship. The regular season went better than expected. They won 47 games vs an expected win total of 45.4. They exceeded expectations on the road. They won 53.7% on the road which was better than expected (50.7%). They won 25 at home and were expected to win 24.6.

10PITTSBURGH PENGUINS 3.5% Chance of Winning Stanley Cup
Win 55% of Neutral Ice Sims and Projected for 98 Pts

They have a 45.2% chance of getting past the first round of the playoffs. They have a 22.7% chance of getting past round 2. Their chances of then winning the East is 7.9%. They have 3.5% chance of winning the championship. Their 44 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -2.2 below what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went worse than expected. They met expectations on the road. It was at home where they came up short. They went 21-20 on the road and were expected to win 21.3. They won 23 at home and were expected to win 24.9.

11ST. LOUIS BLUES 3.4% Chance of Winning Stanley Cup
Win 55% of Neutral Ice Sims and Projected for 97 Pts

They have a 39.6% chance of getting past the first round of the playoffs. They have a 20.2% chance of getting past round 2. Their chances of then winning the West is 8.7%. They have 3.4% chance of winning the championship. Their 45 regular season wins exceeded expectations. It was +2.2 above what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went better than expected. They exceeded expectations on both the road and at home. They won 51.2% on the road which was better than expected (48.4%). They won 24 at home and were expected to win 23.

12NASHVILLE PREDATORS 2.6% Chance of Winning Stanley Cup
Win 54% of Neutral Ice Sims and Projected for 100 Pts

They have a 41.3% chance of getting past the first round of the playoffs. They have a 19.1% chance of getting past round 2. If they do manage to beat the odds and advance past round 2, their chances of winning the West is 7.6%. They have 2.6% chance of winning the championship. The regular season went as expected. They won 47 games vs an expected win total of 47.4. They went 22-19 on the road and were expected to win 21.6. They won 25 at home and were expected to win 25.9.

13CAROLINA HURRICANES 2.1% Chance of Winning Stanley Cup
Win 53% of Neutral Ice Sims and Projected for 94 Pts

They have a 31.4% chance of getting past the first round of the playoffs. They have a 13.9% chance of getting past round 2. If they do manage to beat the odds and advance past round 2, their chances of winning the East is 4.8%. They have 2.1% chance of winning the championship. Their 46 regular season wins exceeded expectations. It was +2.1 above what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went better than expected. They exceeded expectations on the road. They won 53.7% on the road which was better than expected (48.7%). They won 24 at home and were expected to win 23.9.

14DALLAS STARS 1.3% Chance of Winning Stanley Cup
Win 50% of Neutral Ice Sims and Projected for 95 Pts

They have a 28% chance of getting past the first round of the playoffs. They have an 11.1% chance of getting past round 2. If they do manage to beat the odds and advance past round 2, their chances of winning the West is 3.9%. They have 1.3% chance of winning the championship. The sum of all of their regular season money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 41.4 wins. Their 43 actual wins was above expectation. Their strength was at home. They won 46.3% on the road which was as expected (45.4%). They won 24 at home and were expected to win 22.8.

15MONTREAL CANADIENS 0.9% Chance of Winning Stanley Cup
Win 52% of Neutral Ice Sims and Projected for 92 Pts

They have a 18.7% chance of getting past the first round of the playoffs. They have a 6.6% chance of getting past round 2. If they do manage to beat the odds and advance past round 2, their chances of winning the East is 2.4%. Their 44 regular season wins exceeded expectations. It was +3.3 above what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went better than expected. They exceeded expectations at home. They won 46.3% on the road which was as expected (44.3%). They won 25 at home and were expected to win 22.6.

16FLORIDA PANTHERS 0.7% Chance of Winning Stanley Cup
Win 52% of Neutral Ice Sims and Projected for 92 Pts

They have a 18.7% chance of getting past the first round of the playoffs. They have a 6.2% chance of getting past round 2. If they do manage to beat the odds and advance past round 2, their chances of winning the East is 2%. The regular season went worse than expected. They won 36 games vs an expected win total of 40.4. They came up short at home and on the road. Their 48.8% home win percentage was worse than expected (53.7%). They won 39% on the road which was much worse than expected (44.8%).

17COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS 0.4% Chance of Winning Stanley Cup
Win 50% of Neutral Ice Sims and Projected for 87 Pts

They have a 12.1% chance of getting past the first round of the playoffs. They have a 4.7% chance of getting past round 2. If they do manage to beat the odds and advance past round 2, their chances of winning the East is 1.2%. The sum of all of their regular season money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 44.4 wins. Their 47 actual wins was above expectation. Their strength was in road games. They went 25-16 on the road and were expected to win 20.6. Their 53.7% home win percentage was worse than expected (58.1%).

18CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS 0.4% Chance of Winning Stanley Cup
Win 48% of Neutral Ice Sims and Projected for 89 Pts

They have a 12.7% chance of getting past the first round of the playoffs. They have a 4.1% chance of getting past round 2. If they do manage to beat the odds and advance past round 2, their chances of winning the West is 1.3%. The regular season went as expected. They won 36 games vs an expected win total of 36.5. They went 17-24 on the road and were expected to win 16.5. Their 46.3% home win percentage was worse than expected (48.8%).

19NEW YORK ISLANDERS 0.2% Chance of Winning Stanley Cup
Win 47% of Neutral Ice Sims and Projected for 88 Pts

They have an 11.3% chance of getting past the first round of the playoffs. They have a 3.6% chance of getting past round 2. If they do manage to beat the odds and advance past round 2, their chances of winning the East is 0.7%. The sum of all of their regular season money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 40 wins. Their 48 actual wins was above expectation. Their strength was in road games. They went 24-17 on the road and were expected to win 18.1. Their 58.5% home win percentage was better than expected (53.5%).

20ARIZONA COYOTES 0.2% Chance of Winning Stanley Cup
Win 46% of Neutral Ice Sims and Projected for 88 Pts

They have an 11.5% chance of getting past the first round of the playoffs. They have a 3% chance of getting past round 2. If they do manage to beat the odds and advance past round 2, their chances of winning the West is 0.7%. The regular season went better than expected. They won 39 games vs an expected win total of 37.1. They exceeded expectations on the road. They won 46.3% on the road which was much better than expected (39.2%). They won 20 at home and were expected to win 21.

21PHILADELPHIA FLYERS 0.1% Chance of Winning Stanley Cup
Win 47% of Neutral Ice Sims and Projected for 86 Pts

They have a 9% chance of getting past the first round of the playoffs. They have a 2.6% chance of getting past round 2. If they do manage to beat the odds and advance past round 2, their chances of winning the East is 0.6%. The sum of all of their regular season money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 39.3 wins. Their 37 actual wins was below expectation. Home ice was not an advantage, at least not in terms of meeting expectations. They were OK on the road. They won 43.9% on the road which was as expected (42.7%). They won 19 at home and were expected to win 21.8.

22NEW YORK RANGERS 0.1% Chance of Winning Stanley Cup
Win 44% of Neutral Ice Sims and Projected for 91 Pts

They have a 13.9% chance of getting past the first round of the playoffs. They have a 3.5% chance of getting past round 2. If they do manage to beat the odds and advance past round 2, their chances of winning the East is 0.6%. The regular season went worse than expected. They won 32 games vs an expected win total of 34.5. They came up short at home and on the road. They went 14-27 on the road and were expected to win 15.1. They won 18 at home and were expected to win 19.4.

23VANCOUVER CANUCKS 0.1% Chance of Winning Stanley Cup
Win 46% of Neutral Ice Sims and Projected for 83 Pts

They have a 5.1% chance of getting past the first round of the playoffs. They have a 1.2% chance of getting past round 2. If they do manage to beat the odds and advance past round 2, their chances of winning the West is 0.3%. The regular season went better than expected. They won 35 games vs an expected win total of 33.9. They exceeded expectations at home. They went 15-26 on the road and were expected to win 15. They won 20 at home and were expected to win 18.9.

24EDMONTON OILERS 0% Chance of Winning Stanley Cup
Win 43% of Neutral Ice Sims and Projected for 81 Pts

They have a 3.1% chance of getting past the first round of the playoffs. They have a 0.7% chance of getting past round 2. If they do manage to beat the odds and advance past round 2, their chances of winning the West is 0.1%. The sum of all of their regular season money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 39 wins. Their 35 actual wins was below expectation. Home ice was not an advantage, at least not in terms of meeting expectations. They were OK on the road. They went 17-24 on the road and were expected to win 17.2. Their 43.9% home win percentage was much worse than expected (53.1%).

25DETROIT RED WINGS 0% Chance of Winning Stanley Cup
Win 43% of Neutral Ice Sims and Projected for 78 Pts

They have a 1% chance of getting past the first round of the playoffs. They have a 0.2% chance of getting past round 2. If they do manage to beat the odds and advance past round 2, their chances of winning the East is 0%. The regular season went as expected. They won 32 games vs an expected win total of 31.9. They exceeded expectations on the road. They went 15-26 on the road and were expected to win 13.9. They won 17 at home and were expected to win 18.

26OTTAWA SENATORS 0% Chance of Winning Stanley Cup
Win 41% of Neutral Ice Sims and Projected for 77 Pts

They have a 0.8% chance of getting past the first round of the playoffs. They have a 0.2% chance of getting past round 2. If they do manage to beat the odds and advance past round 2, their chances of winning the East is 0%. The sum of all of their regular season money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 30.1 wins. Their 29 actual wins was below expectation. They met expectations at home, it was on the road that they struggled. They won 26.8% on the road which was much worse than expected (32.6%). They won 18 at home and were expected to win 16.8.

27MINNESOTA WILD 0% Chance of Winning Stanley Cup
Win 43% of Neutral Ice Sims and Projected for 77 Pts

They are not playoff contenders based on our latest simulations. Their 37 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -5.2 below what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went much worse than expected. Home ice was not an advantage, at least not in terms of meeting expectations. They were OK on the road. They went 21-20 on the road and were expected to win 18.8. They won 16 at home and were expected to win 23.4.

28NEW JERSEY DEVILS 0% Chance of Winning Stanley Cup
Win 38% of Neutral Ice Sims and Projected for 72 Pts

They are not playoff contenders based on our latest simulations. Their 31 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -4.5 below what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went much worse than expected. They came up short on the road. They were OK at home. They went 11-30 on the road and were expected to win 15.9. Their 48.8% home win percentage was as expected (47.7%).

29BUFFALO SABRES 0% Chance of Winning Stanley Cup
Win 39% of Neutral Ice Sims and Projected for 75 Pts

They are not playoff contenders based on our latest simulations. Their 33 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -3.9 below what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went worse than expected. They came up short on the road. They were OK at home. Their 51.2% home win percentage was as expected (49.6%). They won 29.3% on the road which was much worse than expected (40.4%).

30ANAHEIM DUCKS 0% Chance of Winning Stanley Cup
Win 38% of Neutral Ice Sims and Projected for 73 Pts

Our simulations give them a very slim chance of making the playoffs. Their 35 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -1.2 below what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went worse than expected. They met expectations on the road. It was at home where they came up short. They won 39% on the road which was as expected (39.2%). They won 19 at home and were expected to win 20.1.

31LOS ANGELES KINGS 0% Chance of Winning Stanley Cup
Win 33% of Neutral Ice Sims and Projected for 66 Pts

Our simulations give them a very slim chance of making the playoffs. The sum of all of their regular season money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 35.4 wins. Their 31 actual wins was below expectation. They came up short at home and on the road. Their 41.5% home win percentage was much worse than expected (48.4%). They won 34.1% on the road which was worse than expected (38%).