Boston Bruins Have a 55% Chance of Winning the Championship

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After their huge Game 6 win the Bruins are now a favorite at home in Game 7. But this series has been all about the road team and the Blues have a better shot than odds makers give them.

REGULAR SEASON RECAP

The regular season went better than expected. They won 49 games vs an expected win total of 46.4. Their strength was at home. They won 48.8% on the road which was as expected (51%). They won 29 at home and were expected to win 25.5.

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TEAM STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES

Their average goal differential is +0.69 which ranks #2 in the league, which is the same as how they rank in points. This is a relatively better home team than a road team. They are the #2 ranked team in goal differential in home games, vs #6 in road games. Their average goal differential in their past 5 games is +0.6 which ranks them #1 over this stretch, slightly better than the season overall.

OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

SituationGoalsGoal%Shots on Goal
All 104 Games3.17 (#10)9.7% (#11)32.7 (#10)
Road2.98 (#10)9.3% (#14)32.1 (#8)
Home3.36 (#9)10.1% (#9)33.3 (#10)
Last 5 Games3.2 (#1)10.9% (#1)29.4 (#1)

DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):

SituationGoals AllowedSave%Shots Against
All2.48 (#3)91.7% (#3)29.9 (#8)
Road2.57 (#5)91.8% (#431.3 (#10)
Home2.4 (#4)91.6% (#7)28.6 (#6)
Last 5 Games2.6 (#1)91% (#1)29 (#1)

TEAM STATS AND BETTING RESULT GAMELOG

Below is a betting recap of all 82 regular games. Anyone who backed the Bruins in all of their games would have earned a +508 unit profit at a 100 per game risk. Against the puck line, they have delivered a +161 profit risking 100 units on each game (40-42 PL). They are profitable against the puck line at home and on the road.

Season RecapGS-GAMoney LinePuck Line RecordO/U RecordSOGSOG Allowed
All Games3.2 - 2.649-24-9, +50840-42, +16135-44 55.7% Under32.729.5
On Road2.9 - 2.820-15-6, -34522-19, +4417-23 57.5% Under3230.6
At Home3.4 - 2.529-9-3, +50818-23, +11718-21 53.8% Under33.328.3
4/6 TB3-6Loss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Over 6.53322
4/4 @MIN3-0Win +110Covered +1.5Under 5.53526
4/2 @CLB6-2Win +115Covered +1.5Over 5.52834
3/31 @DET3-6Loss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Over 5.53428
3/30 FLA1-4Loss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Under 6.53123
3/27 NYR6-3Win +28Covered -1.5Over 63223
3/25 @TB4-5Loss -100Covered +1.5Over 61728
3/23 @FLA7-3Win +68Covered -1.5Over 63934
3/21 @NJ5-1Win +31Covered -1.5Over 5.52722
3/19 @NYI5-0Win +86Covered -1.5Under 5.53913
3/16 CLB2-1Win +57Puck Line Loss -1.5Under 63325
3/14 @WPG3-4Loss -100Covered +1.5Over 63924
3/12 @CLB4-7Loss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Over 63135
3/10 @PIT2-4Loss -100Puck Line Loss +1.5Under 6.54137
3/9 OTT3-2Win +22Puck Line Loss -1.5Under 63119
3/7 FLA4-3Win +45Puck Line Loss -1.5Over 62825
3/5 CAR4-3Win +76Puck Line Loss -1.5Over 5.53837
3/2 NJ1-0Win +28Puck Line Loss -1.5Under 63020
2/28 TB4-1Win +80Covered -1.5Under 6.54121
2/26 SJ4-1Win +95Covered +1.5Under 6.53220
2/23 @STL1-2 OTLoss -100Covered +1.5Under 5.53229
2/20 @LV3-2Win +122Covered +1.5Under 5.52733
2/18 @SJ6-5Win +127Covered +1.5Over 62038
2/16 @LA4-2Win +74Covered -1.5Over 5.52425
2/15 @ANA3-0Win +51Covered -1.5Under 5.52930
2/12 CHI6-3Win +51Covered -1.5Over 6.53726
2/10 COL2-1Win +50Puck Line Loss -1.5Under 63536
2/9 LA5-4Win +40Puck Line Loss -1.5Over 5.53329
2/6 @NYR3-4 OTLoss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Over 63039
2/5 NYI3-1Win +61Covered -1.5Under 5.52729
2/3 @WAS1-0Win +95Covered +1.5Under 63924
1/31 PHI2-3 OTLoss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Under 62541
1/29 WPG3-4 OTLoss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Over 63927
1/19 NYR2-3Loss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Under 62920
1/17 STL5-2Win +62Covered -1.5Over 5.52730
1/16 @PHI3-4Loss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Over 64219
1/14 MON2-3 OTLoss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Under 5.54322
1/12 @TOR3-2Win +110Covered +1.5Under 6.52932
1/10 WAS2-4Loss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Push 64122
1/8 MIN4-0Win +54Covered -1.5Under 5.52724
1/5 BUF2-1Win +45Puck Line Loss -1.5Under 5.54132
1/3 CGY6-4Win +63Covered -1.5Over 62737
1/1 @CHI4-2Win +60Covered -1.5Push 63638
12/29 @BUF3-2Win +87Puck Line Loss -1.5Under 5.54228
12/27 NJ2-5Loss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Over 64233
12/23 @CAR3-5Loss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Over 5.53037
12/22 NSH5-2Win +70Covered -1.5Over 5.53230
12/20 ANA3-1Win +64Covered -1.5Under 5.53125
12/17 @MON4-0Win +125Covered +1.5Under 63522
12/16 BUF2-4Loss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Over 5.53727
12/14 @PIT3-5Loss -100Puck Line Loss +1.5Over 65128
12/11 ARI4-3Win +56Puck Line Loss -1.5Over 5.52633
12/9 @OTT2-1Win +62Puck Line Loss -1.5Under 6.54428
12/8 TOR6-3Win +115Covered +1.5Over 63232
12/6 @TB2-3Loss -100Covered +1.5Under 63530
12/4 @FLA0-5Loss -100Puck Line Loss +1.5Under 5.53344
12/1 DET2-4Loss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Over 5.54027
11/29 NYI2-1Win +61Puck Line Loss -1.5Under 5.53629
11/26 @TOR2-4Loss -100Puck Line Loss +1.5Over 5.54031
11/24 @MON3-2Win +83Puck Line Loss -1.5Under 5.53533
11/23 PIT2-1Win +100Covered +1.5Under 63737
11/21 @DET2-3 OTLoss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Under 5.53627
11/17 @ARI2-1Win +96Puck Line Loss -1.5Under 5.52333
11/16 @DAL0-1 OTLoss -100Covered +1.5Under 5.52337
11/14 @COL3-6Loss -100Puck Line Loss +1.5Over 62325
11/11 LV4-1Win +58Covered -1.5Under 5.53738
11/10 TOR5-1Win +69Covered -1.5Push 63441
11/8 VAN5-8Loss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Over 5.52833
11/5 DAL2-1Win +62Puck Line Loss -1.5Under 5.53525
11/3 @NSH0-1Loss -100Covered +1.5Under 5.52640
10/30 @CAR3-2Win +120Covered +1.5Under 63144
10/27 MON0-3Loss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Under 5.53323
10/25 PHI3-0Win +62Covered -1.5Under 62526
10/23 @OTT4-1Win +59Covered -1.5Under 63239
10/20 @VAN1-2 OTLoss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Under 63122
10/18 @EDM2-3 OTLoss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Under 62922
10/17 @CGY2-5Loss -100Puck Line Loss +1.5Over 62629
10/13 DET8-2Win +38Covered -1.5Over 63934
10/11 EDM4-1Win +59Covered -1.5Under 63226
10/8 OTT6-3Win +37Covered -1.5Over 63031
10/4 @BUF4-0Win +74Covered -1.5Under 62632
10/3 @WAS0-7Loss -100Puck Line Loss +1.5Over 5.52537