Washington Capitals Finish the Season 48-34 and They are Projected to Win 48 Next Season, and Will Be in a Tight Race for Home Ice in the First Round of the Playoffs

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PLAYOFF FORECAST

They have a 60.4% chance of getting past the first round of the playoffs. They have a 37.5% chance of getting past round 2. Their chances of then winning the East is 16.5%. They have 9% chance of winning the championship.

REGULAR SEASON RECAP

The sum of all of their regular season money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 44.6 wins. Their 48 actual wins was above expectation. They exceeded expectations on the road. They went 24-17 on the road and were expected to win 20.3. They won 24 at home and were expected to win 24.3.

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TEAM STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES

Their record is better than it should be. Since 10/3/2018 their average goal differential is +0.28 (includes playoff games) which ranks #9 in the league, but their rank based on points (per game) is #4. This is a relatively better home team than a road team. They are the #5 ranked team in goal differential in home games, vs #12 in road games.

OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

SituationGoalsGoal%Shots on Goal
All 89 Games3.3 (#5)11% (#2)30.1 (#23)
Road3.18 (#5)10.8% (#2)29.6 (#22)
Home3.42 (#6)11.1% (#5)30.7 (#21)

DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):

SituationGoals AllowedSave%Shots Against
All3.02 (#17)90.5% (#15)31.7 (#16)
Road3.39 (#21)89.2% (#2431.5 (#11)
Home2.67 (#9)91.6% (#6)31.8 (#20)

TEAM STATS AND BETTING RESULT GAMELOG

Below is a betting recap of all 82 regular games. Anyone who backed the Capitals in all of their games would be down -275 units. Against the puck line, they have lost -12 units risking 100 units on each pick (38-44 PL). The Capitals have turned a puck line profit on the road but have lost at home.

Season RecapGS-GAMoney LinePuck Line RecordO/U RecordSOGSOG Allowed
All Games3.4 - 3.048-26-8, -27538-44, -1241-38 51.9% Over30.431.5
On Road3.4 - 3.324-15-2, +58021-20, +7322-18 55% Over29.931.2
At Home3.4 - 2.724-11-6, -27517-24, -8519-20 51.3% Under30.931.8
4/6 NYI0-3Loss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Under 5.52924
4/4 MON2-1Win +74Puck Line Loss -1.5Under 63134
4/1 @FLA3-5Loss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Over 6.53034
3/30 @TB6-3Win +165Covered +1.5Over 73528
3/28 @CAR3-2Win +118Covered +1.5Under 62026
3/26 CAR4-1Win +77Covered -1.5Under 62828
3/24 PHI3-1Win +48Covered -1.5Under 6.53036
3/22 MIN1-2Loss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Under 62227
3/20 TB4-5 OTLoss -100Covered +1.5Over 6.55828
3/19 @NJ4-1Win +41Covered -1.5Under 62221
3/16 @TB3-6Loss -100Puck Line Loss +1.5Over 6.53435
3/14 @PHI5-2Win +80Covered -1.5Over 6.53224
3/12 @PIT3-5Loss -100Puck Line Loss +1.5Over 6.54130
3/10 WPG3-1Win +70Covered -1.5Under 6.51834
3/8 NJ3-0Win +28Covered -1.5Under 63625
3/6 @PHI5-3Win +83Covered -1.5Over 6.53530
3/3 @NYR3-2Win +61Puck Line Loss -1.5Under 6.53924
3/1 @NYI3-1Win +95Covered +1.5Under 62921
2/26 OTT7-2Win +33Covered -1.5Over 6.53723
2/24 NYR6-5Win +45Puck Line Loss -1.5Over 6.53531
2/23 @BUF2-5Loss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Over 63338
2/21 @TOR3-2Win +140Covered +1.5Under 6.52842
2/18 @LA3-2Win +86Puck Line Loss -1.5Under 5.52128
2/17 @ANA2-5Loss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Over 5.52539
2/14 @SJ5-1Win +146Covered +1.5Under 6.52926
2/12 @CLB0-3Loss -100Puck Line Loss +1.5Under 6.52032
2/11 LA6-4Win +51Covered -1.5Over 5.53133
2/9 FLA4-5 OTLoss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Over 6.53031
2/7 COL4-3Win +71Puck Line Loss -1.5Over 6.54237
2/5 VAN3-2Win +45Puck Line Loss -1.5Under 6.53132
2/3 BOS0-1Loss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Under 62439
2/1 CGY4-3Win +98Covered +1.5Over 6.54030
1/23 @TOR3-6Loss -100Puck Line Loss +1.5Over 6.54437
1/22 SJ6-7 OTLoss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Over 6.53943
1/20 @CHI5-8Loss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Over 6.53928
1/18 NYI0-2Loss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Under 61925
1/15 @NSH2-7Loss -100Puck Line Loss +1.5Over 62829
1/14 STL1-4Loss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Under 5.52937
1/12 CLB1-2 OTLoss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Under 6.53322
1/10 @BOS4-2Win +127Covered +1.5Push 62241
1/8 PHI5-3Win +49Covered -1.5Over 62540
1/6 @DET3-2Win +61Puck Line Loss -1.5Under 63425
1/4 @DAL1-2 OTLoss -100Covered +1.5Under 63729
1/3 @STL2-5Loss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Over 62542
12/31 NSH3-6Loss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Over 62534
12/29 @OTT3-2Win +45Puck Line Loss -1.5Under 6.52433
12/27 CAR3-1Win +60Covered -1.5Under 63329
12/22 @OTT4-0Win +61Covered -1.5Under 6.53335
12/21 BUF2-1Win +51Puck Line Loss -1.5Under 6.52437
12/19 PIT1-2Loss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Under 6.53230
12/15 BUF4-3Win +62Puck Line Loss -1.5Over 6.53829
12/14 @CAR6-5Win +74Puck Line Loss -1.5Over 6.52927
12/11 DET6-2Win +35Covered -1.5Over 62537
12/8 @CLB4-0Win +110Covered +1.5Under 6.52828
12/6 @ARI4-2Win +83Covered -1.5Over 5.52929
12/4 @LV3-5Loss -100Puck Line Loss +1.5Over 62628
12/2 ANA5-6Loss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Over 5.53225
11/30 NJ6-3Win +61Covered -1.5Over 6.53136
11/26 @NYI4-1Win +83Covered -1.5Under 6.52433
11/24 @NYR5-3Win +83Covered -1.5Over 62830
11/23 DET3-1Win +51Covered -1.5Under 5.52032
11/21 CHI4-2Win +71Covered -1.5Push 62739
11/19 @MON5-4Win +100Covered +1.5Over 5.53444
11/16 @COL3-2Win +140Covered +1.5Under 62926
11/14 @WPG1-3Loss -100Puck Line Loss +1.5Under 62824
11/13 @MIN5-2Win +130Covered +1.5Over 63328
11/11 ARI1-4Loss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Under 63922
11/9 CLB1-2Loss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Under 63436
11/7 PIT2-1Win +77Puck Line Loss -1.5Under 6.52242
11/5 EDM4-2Win +80Covered -1.5Push 62333
11/3 DAL3-4 OTLoss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Over 63237
11/1 @MON4-6Loss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Over 63144
10/27 @CGY4-3Win +100Covered +1.5Over 6.52730
10/25 @EDM1-4Loss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Under 63232
10/22 @VAN5-2Win +68Covered -1.5Over 63324
10/19 FLA5-6 OTLoss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Over 6.53130
10/17 NYR4-3Win +38Puck Line Loss -1.5Over 63832
10/13 TOR2-4Loss -100Puck Line Loss -1.5Under 6.52728
10/11 @NJ0-6Loss -100Puck Line Loss +1.5Under 6.52136
10/10 LV5-2Win +67Covered -1.5Over 62931
10/4 @PIT6-7 OTLoss -100Covered +1.5Over 63641
10/3 BOS7-0Win +83Covered -1.5Over 5.53725