NFL Week 1 Picks: Lean on Bears and the Under vs the Green Bay Packers

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Thursday, September 05, 2019

Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears

Both the simulations and the betting lines are on the Bears to win the game. The projected score is Bears 25 and Packers 20, and Chicago is winning 62% of the sims. The Bears are -185 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 65 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. They both have one win head-to-head in recent seasons. In these games the Bears averaged 47 points per game and the Packers 27. The projection based point spread is CHI -5. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening -3.5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Bears are 9-4-0. As an underdog, the Packers are 2-4-1. The Bears are 2-0-0 against the spread vs the Packers. The average point spread in these games was Packers -0.3 but the Bears won by an average of 19.7 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Green Bay Packers4621.219.737%38%27.3 (1 Win)
Chicago Bears-3.524.824.863%62%47.0 (1 Win)

VEGAS is the expected score based on the point spread and over/under, PROJ is the average score from computer simulations, ML% is the implied probability of the money lines adjusted for the juice, SIM% is the percentage of simulations each team won, PAST H2H is the average score from recent head to head matchups

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Sunday, September 08, 2019

Los Angeles Rams vs Carolina Panthers

The odds favor the Rams, and the sims are solidly on the Rams as well. The projected score is Rams 30 and Panthers 24, with Los Angeles winning 62% of the latest sims. The Rams are -160 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 62 percent. The moneyline has moved from its opening value which indicates people are wagering more money on the Rams to win. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The projection based point spread is LAR -5.5. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening CAR +3. The Rams have a record of 8-7-2 as a favorite. The Panthers have a record of 4-3-0 as an underdog. The Rams are 5-5-0 ATS on the road since last season. The Panthers were 5-3-0 ATS at home last season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Los Angeles Rams5127.029.759%62%--
Carolina Panthers+3.024.024.041%38%--

Washington Redskins vs Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles are solidly favored to win based on simulations and the current odds. The projected score is Eagles 27 and Redskins 18, and Philadelphia is winning 71% of simulations. At -400 on the moneyline, the Eagles implied probability to win is 80 percent. The moneyline has moved from its opening value which indicates people are wagering more money on the Eagles to win. The Eagles have the recent head-to-head edge going 2-0. In these games the Eagles averaged 52 points per game and the Redskins 13. The projection based point spread is PHI -9. Bettors seem to be favoring the Eagles as the Vegas line has moved from -8 to -9. The Eagles have a record of 4-7-1 as a favorite. The Redskins have a record of 8-5-0 as an underdog. Their straight up head-to-head record is the same as their ATS records. The Eagles are 2-0-0 against the spread vs the Redskins. The Eagles were favored by an average of -5.8 points in these games and they won by an average of 39 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Washington Redskins46.518.818.023%29%13.0 (0 Wins)
Philadelphia Eagles-9.027.727.177%71%52.0 (2 Wins)

Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets

The odds and our simulations favor the Jets over the Bills. The projected score is Jets 23 and Bills 18, and New York is winning 62% of simulations. The Jets are -175 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 64 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. They both have one win head-to-head in recent seasons. In these games, the Bills averaged 43 and the Jets 37 ppg. The projection based point spread is NYJ -5. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening -3.5. The Jets have a record of 1-2-0 as a favorite. The Bills have a record of 6-7-0 as an underdog. They have the same ATS records as they do straight up head-to-head. Both have covered the spread once head-to-head. The Jets were favored by an average of -1.2 points in these games but the Bills won by an average of 5.7 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Buffalo Bills38.517.518.539%38%42.7 (1 Win)
New York Jets-3.521.023.461%62%37.0 (1 Win)

Atlanta Falcons vs Minnesota Vikings

Both the simulations and the betting lines are on the Vikings to win the game, and home field advantage is a big reason why. The projected score is Vikings 24 and Falcons 21, and Minnesota is winning 56% of the sims. The Vikings are -200 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 67 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The projection based point spread is MIN -3.5. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening -4. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Vikings are 6-3-1. As an underdog, the Falcons are 1-3-0. The Falcons are 2-6-0 ATS on the road since last season. The Vikings were 4-3-1 ATS at home last season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Atlanta Falcons47.521.820.936%43%--
Minnesota Vikings-4.025.724.264%56%--

Baltimore Ravens vs Miami Dolphins

Both the simulations and the betting lines are strongly on the Ravens to win the game despite being on the road. The projected score is Ravens 24 and Dolphins 16, with Baltimore winning 70% of the latest sims. At -204 on the moneyline, the Ravens implied probability to win is 67 percent. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The computer would set the spread at BAL -8.5. Bettors seem to be favoring the Ravens as the Vegas line has moved from +4 to 4.5. The Ravens have a record of 4-9-0 as a favorite. The Dolphins have a record of 4-7-0 as an underdog. The Ravens are 5-3-0 ATS on the road since last season. The Dolphins were 6-2-0 ATS at home last season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Baltimore Ravens3720.824.265%70%--
Miami Dolphins+4.516.215.535%29%--

Kansas City Chiefs vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Both the simulations and the betting lines are on the Chiefs to win the game despite being on the road. The projected score is Chiefs 29 and Jaguars 23, and Kansas City is winning 63% of simulations. The Chiefs are -192 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 66 percent. People are betting more heavily on the Jaguars based on how the moneyline is moving. Head-to-head, the Chiefs are 1-0. In these games, the Chiefs averaged 30 and the Jaguars 28 ppg. The projection based point spread is KC -6. With more action on the Jaguars side, the line has adjusted from +4.5 to +4. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Chiefs are 7-6-0. As an underdog, the Jaguars are 3-4-2. Their straight up head-to-head record is the same as their ATS records. The Chiefs have the ATS edge head to head going 1-0-0 vs the Jaguars. The average point spread in these games was Chiefs -1.5 and they won by an average of 2 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Kansas City Chiefs51.527.828.864%63%30.0 (1 Win)
Jacksonville Jaguars+4.023.722.736%36%28.0 (0 Wins)

Tennessee Titans vs Cleveland Browns

The Browns are solidly favored to win based on simulations and the current odds. The projected score is Browns 25 and Titans 18, and Cleveland is winning 67% of the sims. At -250 on the moneyline, the Browns implied probability to win is 71 percent. People are betting more heavily on the Browns based on how the moneyline is moving. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The projection based point spread is CLE -7. More of the action seems to be on the Browns with the Vegas line moving from -5 to -5.5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Browns are 1-2-0. As an underdog, the Titans are 6-4-0. The Titans are 4-4-0 ATS on the road since last season. The Browns were 5-3-0 ATS at home last season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Tennessee Titans45.520.017.831%33%--
Cleveland Browns-5.525.525.069%67%--

Cincinnati Bengals vs Seattle Seahawks

Both the simulations and the betting lines are strongly on the Seahawks to win the game. The projected score is Seahawks 29 and Bengals 19, with Seattle winning 73% of the time. At -400 on the moneyline, the Seahawks implied probability to win is 80 percent. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The computer would set the spread at SEA -10. Bettors seem to be favoring the Seahawks as the Vegas line has moved from -8 to -9. The Seahawks have a record of 4-3-1 as a favorite. The Bengals have a record of 6-4-0 as an underdog. The Bengals are 6-2-0 ATS on the road since last season. The Seahawks were 5-2-1 ATS at home last season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Cincinnati Bengals43.517.219.223%26%--
Seattle Seahawks-9.026.329.277%73%--

Indianapolis Colts vs Los Angeles Chargers

The odds favor the Chargers, and the sims are solidly on the Chargers as well. The projected score is Chargers 26 and Colts 22, with Los Angeles winning 58% of the time. The Chargers are -164 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 62 percent. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The projection based point spread is LAC -4. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening -3. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Chargers are 5-6-0. As an underdog, the Colts are 4-5-0. The Colts are 6-4-0 ATS on the road since last season. The Chargers were 2-5-0 ATS at home last season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Indianapolis Colts47.522.221.641%41%--
Los Angeles Chargers-3.025.325.759%58%--

San Francisco 49ers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The simulations have this as an even matchup, while the Vegas odds favor the Buccaneers. The projected score is Buccaneers 27 and 49ers 26, with Tampa Bay winning 50% of the time. The Buccaneers are -120 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 55 percent. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. Tampa Bay won their lone matchup in recent seasons 54 to 18. The computer would set the spread at TB -1. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening -1. The Buccaneers have a record of 1-3-0 as a favorite. The 49ers have a record of 5-7-0 as an underdog. In their last match-up (TB won by 36) Tampa Bay covered the spread. The Buccaneers were -2 favorites.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
San Francisco 49ers4924.026.448%49%18.0 (0 Wins)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers-1.025.026.952%50%54.0 (1 Win)

New York Giants vs Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys are solidly favored to win based on simulations and the current odds. The projected score is Cowboys 26 and Giants 19, with Dallas winning 66% of the time. The moneyline for the Cowboys is -344 which translates to 77 percent (chance of winning). The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. The Cowboys are up in this matchup recently going 2-0. In these games the Cowboys averaged 56 points per game and the Giants 48. The computer would set the spread at DAL -7. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening -7.5. The Cowboys have a record of 3-3-2 as a favorite. The Giants have a record of 7-6-0 as an underdog. They have the same ATS records as they do straight up head-to-head. The Cowboys have the ATS edge head to head going 2-0-0 vs the Giants. The average point spread in these games was Giants -2.2 but the Cowboys won by an average of 8 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
New York Giants46.519.518.725%32%48.0 (0 Wins)
Dallas Cowboys-7.527.025.975%66%56.0 (2 Wins)

Detroit Lions vs Arizona Cardinals

The odds favor the Lions, and the sims are solidly on the Lions as well. The projected score is Lions 25 and Cardinals 21, with Detroit winning 58% of the latest sims. At -132 on the moneyline, the Lions implied probability to win is 57 percent. Bettors seem to be favoring the Lions since the moneyline is moving in their 'direction'. In their last 2 matchups the Lions are 1-0. In these games, the Lions averaged 17 and the Cardinals 6 ppg. The projection based point spread is DET -3.5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Lions are 3-2-0. As an underdog, the Cardinals are 7-6-1. Their straight up head-to-head record is the same as their ATS records. The Lions are 1-0-0 against the spread vs the Cardinals. The average point spread in these games was Lions -1.2 and they won by an average of 11 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Detroit Lions48.525.024.654%58%17.0 (1 Win)
Arizona Cardinals+1.523.521.146%41%6.0 (0 Wins)

Pittsburgh Steelers vs New England Patriots

The odds and our simulations heavily favor the Patriots over the Steelers. The projected score is Patriots 28 and Steelers 19, and New England is winning 71% of the sims. The moneyline for the Patriots is -263 which translates to 72 percent (chance of winning). The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. In their last 2 matchups the Steelers are 1-0. In these games the Patriots averaged 20 points per game and the Steelers 17. The projection based point spread is NE -9.5. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening -6. The Patriots have a record of 11-7-0 as a favorite. The Steelers have a record of 5-0-0 as an underdog. Their straight up head-to-head record is the same as their ATS records. The Steelers are 1-0-0 against the spread vs the Patriots. The Patriots were favored by -2.5 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Pittsburgh Steelers51.522.818.830%29%17.0 (1 Win)
New England Patriots-6.028.728.370%71%20.0 (0 Wins)

Monday, September 09, 2019

Houston Texans vs New Orleans Saints

The odds and our simulations heavily favor the Saints over the Texans. The projected score is Saints 29 and Texans 20, and New Orleans is winning 67% of the sims. The moneyline for the Saints is -294 which translates to 75 percent (chance of winning). The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. The teams have not played in the past few seasons so there is no relevant match-up data. The computer would set the spread at NO -9. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening -7. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Saints are 7-8-0. As an underdog, the Texans are 2-1-1. The Texans are 3-3-2 ATS on the road since last season. The Saints were 4-6-0 ATS at home last season.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Houston Texans53.523.220.529%32%--
New Orleans Saints-7.030.329.371%67%--

Denver Broncos vs Oakland Raiders

The simulations disagree with the Vegas odds who have the Broncos as betting underdogs. They are slight favorites in simulations. The projected score is Broncos 24 and Raiders 23, with Denver being given a 53% chance of winning. The Raiders are -132 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 57 percent. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. They both have one win head-to-head in recent seasons. In these games the Raiders averaged 46 points per game and the Broncos 23. The projection based point spread is DEN -1. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening -2.5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Raiders are 1-1-0. As an underdog, the Broncos are 4-3-0. The Raiders have the ATS edge head to head going 2-0-0 vs the Broncos. The average point spread in these games was Broncos -2.8 but the Raiders won by an average of 23.3 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Denver Broncos43.520.524.046%53%22.7 (1 Win)
Oakland Raiders-2.523.023.154%47%46.0 (1 Win)