NFL Super Bowl Futures: Patriots, Chiefs and Chargers are All Good Values

The difference at the top of the conference is small at 2.4%. The Kansas City Chiefs at 25.8% trails the New England Patriots at 28.2%. The difference between these teams is widening as the Chiefs chances are down from 33 percent. As far as teams fighting for the final playoff spots go, there is a very small difference in projected wins between the teams with the #5 best record and the team with the #7 best record. In terms of having a realistic chance of winning the conference, there are 7 legitimate contenders (those with >=4% chance).

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AFC FUTURESPROJ WINSWIN DIVPLAYOFFWIN CONF ODDSWIN CONF SIM
New England Patriots11.184.6%91.1%3/1 (25%)28.2%
Kansas City Chiefs10.753.4%83.0%3/1 (25%)25.8%
Los Angeles Chargers10.242.8%76.1%8/1 (11.1%)16.0%
Indianapolis Colts9.250.0%60.8%5/1 (16.7%)6.9%
Baltimore Ravens9.130.6%50.8%20/1 (4.8%)5.9%
Cleveland Browns9.336.9%55.5%8/1 (11.1%)5.8%
Pittsburgh Steelers8.729.1%46.8%10/1 (9.1%)4.6%
Houston Texans8.021.5%32.6%15/1 (6.2%)2.5%
Tennessee Titans7.214.9%21.8%50/1 (2%)1.1%
New York Jets7.711.4%25.0%40/1 (2.4%)1.1%
Jacksonville Jaguars7.213.6%20.6%30/1 (3.2%)0.9%
Denver Broncos7.13.3%14.8%40/1 (2.4%)0.7%
Buffalo Bills6.73.8%10.7%50/1 (2%)0.3%
Cincinnati Bengals6.33.3%7.5%50/1 (2%)0.2%
Oakland Raiders5.20.4%2.3%40/1 (2.4%)--
Miami Dolphins4.10.2%0.5%100/1 (1%)--

There is a 4.8% difference between conference leaders. The New Orleans Saints lead with a 26.4 percent chance of winning the NFC and the Los Angeles Rams are at 21.5%. The gap seems to be widening. The Rams chances are down from 32.9 percent. The playoff race should be a tight one with only 0.49 wins separate the 3 teams projected for the #5, #6 and #7 best conference record. There are 7 teams with at least a four percent chance of winning the conference.

NFC FUTURES PROJ WINSWIN DIVPLAYOFFWIN CONF ODDSWIN CONF SIM
New Orleans Saints10.777.5%87.1%4/1 (20%)26.4%
Los Angeles Rams10.059.8%76.6%4/1 (20%)21.5%
Philadelphia Eagles9.557.2%68.8%7/1 (12.5%)11.2%
Seattle Seahawks9.029.1%54.4%15/1 (6.2%)9.0%
Chicago Bears8.934.6%51.9%7/1 (12.5%)8.5%
Green Bay Packers8.427.9%42.5%7/1 (12.5%)5.2%
Dallas Cowboys8.425.6%41.4%12/1 (7.7%)4.8%
Minnesota Vikings7.920.8%32.4%12/1 (7.7%)3.5%
Detroit Lions7.816.7%29.5%50/1 (2%)2.7%
Atlanta Falcons7.710.5%26.3%15/1 (6.2%)2.3%
San Francisco 49ers7.59.6%25.0%12/1 (7.7%)1.7%
Carolina Panthers7.38.2%20.5%30/1 (3.2%)1.5%
New York Giants7.09.5%17.1%50/1 (2%)0.8%
Washington Redskins6.57.7%13.0%50/1 (2%)0.5%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers6.23.8%9.3%50/1 (2%)0.4%
Arizona Cardinals5.51.6%4.3%50/1 (2%)0.1%

There are a lot of fanbases who should think that they have a shot at the championship. There are 13 teams winning the championship in at least two percent of simulations. At the top, the Patriots have a 0.8 percentage point lead over the Chiefs. The separation between the team with the #11 highest chances vs the #13 highest is 0.8 percentage points.

SUPERBOWL CONTENDERSODDSODDS%SIM%TREND
New England Patriots6/114.3%16.7%--
Kansas City Chiefs6/114.3%15.8%--
New Orleans Saints8/111.1%13.7%--
Los Angeles Rams8/111.1%10.4%--
Los Angeles Chargers16/15.9%9.2%--
Philadelphia Eagles14/16.7%4.6%--
Chicago Bears14/16.7%3.8%--
Seattle Seahawks30/13.2%3.6%--
Indianapolis Colts10/19.1%3.1%--
Cleveland Browns16/15.9%2.9%--
Baltimore Ravens40/12.4%2.9%--
Green Bay Packers14/16.7%2.1%--
Pittsburgh Steelers20/14.8%2.1%--
Dallas Cowboys25/13.8%1.9%--
Minnesota Vikings25/13.8%1.2%--
Houston Texans30/13.2%1.2%--