Green Bay Packers are Playoff Contenders, but Not Super Bowl Contenders

SCOUT ANALYST TAKE

The Packers are a very average team based on power ranking, but with their softer schedule they have nearly the same chance of making the playoffs as the superior Dallas Cowboys. But even with the 6th best playoff chance in the NFC they only have a little over 1% chance to win the Super Bowl.

2019 SEASON PROJECTION

The Packers are winning more in simulations than they did last season which indicates that they should improve next season. Their odds (14/1) implied probability of winning the Super Bowl is 6.7%. Their simulation based probability is 2.1%. They have a a 2.1 percent chance of being conference champs. Their odds are 7/1, 12.5%.

REGULAR SEASON RECAP

The 2018 season went much worse than expected. They won 6 games vs an expected win total of 9.1. They met expectations at home, it was on the road that they struggled. Their 62.5% home win percentage was as expected (72.4%). They won 12.5% on the road which was much worse than expected (41.6%). Anyone who backed the Packers in all of their games on the money line would be down -154 units. Against the spread, they have lost -390 units risking 110 to win 100 (6-9 ATS). Below is a recap of all 16 regular games.

They are an above average scoring team based on points per game, which make sense given their strong yards per play rank. They are a below average scoring defense based on points per game and a below average defensive TD rate.

Season RecapPPG-PAMoney LineATS RecordO/U Record
All Games23.5 - 25.06-10, -1546-9, -3908-8 50% Over
On Road23.2 - 29.41-7, -6382-5, -3504-4 50% Over
At Home23.8 - 20.65-3, -1544-4, -404-4 50% Over
12/30 DET0-31Loss -100ATS Loss -7.5Under 44.5
12/23 @NYJ44-38Win +62Covered -3Over 47
12/16 @CHI17-24Loss -100ATS Loss +5.5Under 46.5
12/9 ATL34-20Win +51Covered -4Over 50.5
12/2 ARI17-20Loss -100ATS Loss -13.5Under 41
11/25 @MIN17-24Loss -100ATS Loss +3.5Under 48
11/15 @SEA24-27Loss -100ATS Push +3Over 49
11/11 MIA31-12Win +13Covered -12.5Under 48.5
11/4 @NE17-31Loss -100ATS Loss +5Under 56.5
10/28 @LAR27-29Loss -100Covered +7.5Under 57
10/15 SF33-30Win +22ATS Loss -9Over 46
10/7 @DET23-31Loss -100ATS Loss +1Over 50
9/30 BUF22-0Win +27Covered -9Under 44
9/23 @WAS17-31Loss -100ATS Loss -2.5Over 46
9/16 MIN29-29Loss -100Covered +2Over 45
9/9 CHI24-23Win +33ATS Loss -6.5Over 45.5

TEAM OFFENSE (League Rank):

SITUATIONPTS/GTD/PLAYYPPPASSYDYPARUSHYDYPCTO/GAME
Past 16 Games23.5 (#14)4.0% (#17)6.5 (#8)289 (#6)7.2 (#20)104 (#22)5.0 (#2)0.9 (#2)
On the Road23.2 (#13)4.4% (#12)6.8 (#5)312 (#4)7.7 (#8)96 (#27)5.0 (#5)1.1 (#9)
At Home23.8 (#16)3.6% (#24)6.1 (#16)266 (#13)6.8 (#25)113 (#16)5.0 (#3)0.8 (#3)
Last 4 Games23.8 (#10)3.7% (#21)6.0 (#15)268 (#10)6.3 (#25)100 (#19)5.2 (#5)0.8 (#6)

TEAM DEFENSE:

SITUATIONPTS/GTD/PLAYYPPPASSYDYPARUSHYDYPCTO/GAME
Past 16 Games25.0 (#22)4.6% (#23)6.2 (#19)255 (#16)7.7 (#26)120 (#22)4.3 (#13)0.9 (#29)
Road Games29.4 (#28)5.7% (#30)6.3 (#23)273 (#23)8.7 (#30)116 (#15)3.8 (#3)0.4 (#32)
Home Games20.6 (#12)3.5% (#9)6.0 (#14)236 (#9)6.8 (#9)124 (#22)4.8 (#25)1.5 (#16)
Last 4 Games28.2 (#29)5.6% (#31)6.0 (#27)278 (#28)8.1 (#31)95 (#10)3.4 (#3)0.8 (#25)
Season RecapPPG-PAMoney LineATS RecordO/U Record
All Games23.5 - 25.06-10, -1546-9, -3908-8 50% Over
On Road23.2 - 29.41-7, -6382-5, -3504-4 50% Over
At Home23.8 - 20.65-3, -1544-4, -404-4 50% Over
12/30 DET0-31Loss -100ATS Loss -7.5Under 44.5
12/23 @NYJ44-38Win +62Covered -3Over 47
12/16 @CHI17-24Loss -100ATS Loss +5.5Under 46.5
12/9 ATL34-20Win +51Covered -4Over 50.5
12/2 ARI17-20Loss -100ATS Loss -13.5Under 41
11/25 @MIN17-24Loss -100ATS Loss +3.5Under 48
11/15 @SEA24-27Loss -100ATS Push +3Over 49
11/11 MIA31-12Win +13Covered -12.5Under 48.5
11/4 @NE17-31Loss -100ATS Loss +5Under 56.5
10/28 @LAR27-29Loss -100Covered +7.5Under 57
10/15 SF33-30Win +22ATS Loss -9Over 46
10/7 @DET23-31Loss -100ATS Loss +1Over 50
9/30 BUF22-0Win +27Covered -9Under 44
9/23 @WAS17-31Loss -100ATS Loss -2.5Over 46
9/16 MIN29-29Loss -100Covered +2Over 45
9/9 CHI24-23Win +33ATS Loss -6.5Over 45.5