NFL Super Bowl and Conference Futures 2019

There is a small 1.6% difference between conference leaders. The New England Patriots lead with a 29.1 percent chance of winning the AFC and the Kansas City Chiefs are at 27.5%. The difference between these teams is widening as the Chiefs chances are down from 33 percent. Expect the playoff race to be tight. In simulations, the Browns average the #5 most wins and the Steelers average the #7 most so the difference (0.5 wins) between making and missing the playoffs is expected to be small. There are 7 teams with at least a four percent chance of winning the conference.

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AFC FUTURESPROJ WINSWIN DIVPLAYOFFWIN CONF ODDSWIN CONF SIM
New England Patriots11.185.9%91.7%3/1 (25%)29.1%
Kansas City Chiefs10.955.1%85.0%3/1 (25%)27.5%
Los Angeles Chargers10.241.6%76.2%8/1 (11.1%)15.7%
Indianapolis Colts9.249.0%60.1%5/1 (16.7%)6.4%
Cleveland Browns9.337.0%55.8%8/1 (11.1%)6.1%
Baltimore Ravens9.130.2%50.6%20/1 (4.8%)5.2%
Pittsburgh Steelers8.829.5%47.2%10/1 (9.1%)4.3%
Houston Texans8.122.1%32.7%15/1 (6.2%)2.3%
Tennessee Titans7.215.5%22.6%50/1 (2%)0.9%
Jacksonville Jaguars7.213.5%20.3%30/1 (3.2%)0.8%
New York Jets7.610.7%23.8%40/1 (2.4%)0.8%
Denver Broncos7.13.0%14.7%40/1 (2.4%)0.6%
Buffalo Bills6.63.2%9.3%50/1 (2%)0.2%
Cincinnati Bengals6.33.3%7.5%50/1 (2%)0.1%
Oakland Raiders5.10.3%2.1%40/1 (2.4%)--
Miami Dolphins4.10.2%0.6%100/1 (1%)--

The difference at the top of the conference is at 3.9%. The New Orleans Saints lead with a 25.2 percent chance of winning the NFC and the Los Angeles Rams are at 21.3%. The gap seems to be widening. The Rams chances are down from 32.9 percent. The playoff race should be a tight one with only 0.4 wins separate the 3 teams projected for the #5, #6 and #7 best conference record. There are 7 teams with at least a four percent chance of winning the conference.

NFC FUTURES PROJ WINSWIN DIVPLAYOFFWIN CONF ODDSWIN CONF SIM
New Orleans Saints10.676.4%85.9%4/1 (20%)25.2%
Los Angeles Rams10.059.1%76.9%4/1 (20%)21.3%
Philadelphia Eagles9.556.8%68.7%7/1 (12.5%)11.7%
Seattle Seahawks9.130.4%56.4%15/1 (6.2%)10.3%
Chicago Bears8.933.5%51.0%7/1 (12.5%)8.2%
Dallas Cowboys8.426.5%42.0%12/1 (7.7%)5.4%
Green Bay Packers8.528.9%43.6%7/1 (12.5%)4.9%
Minnesota Vikings7.820.4%31.9%12/1 (7.7%)3.4%
Detroit Lions7.817.1%30.2%50/1 (2%)2.8%
Atlanta Falcons7.711.5%26.5%15/1 (6.2%)2.0%
San Francisco 49ers7.69.4%25.7%12/1 (7.7%)2.0%
Carolina Panthers7.38.1%19.3%30/1 (3.2%)1.2%
New York Giants7.09.2%16.6%50/1 (2%)0.7%
Washington Redskins6.57.5%12.8%50/1 (2%)0.5%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers6.24.0%9.1%50/1 (2%)0.5%
Arizona Cardinals5.41.1%3.3%50/1 (2%)--

At this point, the number of contenders exceeds the number of playoff teams. There are 13 teams winning the championship in at least two percent of simulations. At the top, the Chiefs have a 0 percentage point lead over the Patriots. Teams are bunched together at the bottom of the contenders list with just 0.5 percentage points separating the #11 ranked team from the #13 ranked team.

SUPERBOWL CONTENDERSODDSODDS%SIM%TREND
Kansas City Chiefs6/114.3%17.3%--
New England Patriots6/114.3%16.9%--
New Orleans Saints8/111.1%12.2%--
Los Angeles Rams8/111.1%10.2%--
Los Angeles Chargers16/15.9%8.6%--
Philadelphia Eagles14/16.7%5.0%--
Seattle Seahawks30/13.2%4.5%--
Chicago Bears14/16.7%3.5%--
Indianapolis Colts10/19.1%3.3%--
Cleveland Browns16/15.9%2.9%--
Baltimore Ravens40/12.4%2.6%--
Dallas Cowboys25/13.8%2.1%--
Pittsburgh Steelers20/14.8%2.1%--
Green Bay Packers14/16.7%2.0%--
Minnesota Vikings25/13.8%1.2%--
Houston Texans30/13.2%1.0%--