Kansas City Chiefs Have a 17.3% Chance of Winning the Super Bowl

2019 SEASON PROJECTION

Their neutral win simulation percentage indicates that the Chiefs are expected to have a similar record next season as they did last. Their current odds to win Super Bowl 54 are 6/1, 14.3%. Based on simulations they are a good bet to win the Super Bowl with a 17.3% chance. They are also a good bet to win the conference with a 27.5% chance at 3/1, 25%.

REGULAR SEASON RECAP

The sum of all of their 2018 season money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 10.1 wins. Their 12 actual wins was above expectation. They won more games than expected at home and on the road. They went 5-3 on the road and were expected to win 4.2. Their 87.5% home win percentage was much better than expected (73.7%). Anyone who backed the Chiefs in all of their games on the money line would have earned a +121 unit profit at a 100 per game risk. Against the spread, they have delivered a +240 profit risking 110 to win 100 (9-6 ATS). The Chiefs have turned an ATS profit on the road but have lost at home. Below is a recap of all 16 regular games.

They are an elite scoring team based on points per game, which make sense given their strong yards per play rank. They are a below average scoring defense based on points per game and below average in yards per play allowed.

Season RecapPPG-PAMoney LineATS RecordO/U Record
All Games35.3 - 26.312-4, +1219-6, +24010-6 62.5% Over
On Road38.2 - 34.65-3, +1115-2, +2807-1 87.5% Over
At Home32.4 - 18.07-1, +1124-4, -403-5 62.5% Under
12/30 OAK35-3Win +10Covered -14.5Under 52.5
12/23 @SEA31-38Loss -100ATS Loss PKOver 56
12/13 LAC28-29Loss -100ATS Loss -3.5Over 54.5
12/9 BAL27-24Win +33ATS Loss -6.5Over 49
12/2 @OAK40-33Win +10ATS Loss -14Over 53.5
11/19 @LAR51-54Loss -100ATS Push +3Over 63.5
11/11 ARI26-14Win +6ATS Loss -16Under 49.5
11/4 @CLE37-21Win +23Covered -8Over 51.5
10/28 DEN30-23Win +22ATS Loss -8.5Under 53.5
10/21 CIN45-10Win +36Covered -6Under 56.5
10/14 @NE40-43Loss -100Covered +3.5Over 59.5
10/7 JAC30-14Win +67Covered -3Under 48
10/1 @DEN27-23Win +43Covered -3.5Under 53.5
9/23 SF38-27Win +38Covered -6Over 53.5
9/16 @PIT42-37Win +170Covered +4.5Over 52.5
9/9 @LAC38-28Win +165Covered +3.5Over 48

TEAM OFFENSE (League Rank):

SITUATIONPTS/GTD/PLAYYPPPASSYDYPARUSHYDYPCTO/GAME
Past 16 Games35.3 (#1)6.8% (#1)7.2 (#1)320 (#3)8.8 (#1)116 (#16)4.8 (#6)1.1 (#6)
On the Road38.2 (#1)7.5% (#1)7.7 (#1)332 (#2)9.1 (#1)129 (#8)5.5 (#1)1.5 (#18)
At Home32.4 (#4)6.1% (#2)6.7 (#4)308 (#3)8.5 (#6)103 (#23)4.1 (#25)0.8 (#3)
Last 4 Games30.2 (#1)5.7% (#1)6.6 (#3)301 (#5)7.8 (#6)102 (#18)4.5 (#13)1.0 (#7)

TEAM DEFENSE:

SITUATIONPTS/GTD/PLAYYPPPASSYDYPARUSHYDYPCTO/GAME
Past 16 Games26.3 (#24)4.6% (#24)6.5 (#32)295 (#32)7.5 (#16)132 (#27)5.0 (#31)1.7 (#8)
Road Games34.6 (#31)5.6% (#29)6.9 (#32)342 (#32)8.1 (#28)131 (#24)4.9 (#28)1.2 (#18)
Home Games18.0 (#6)3.6% (#10)6.0 (#21)248 (#13)6.7 (#7)134 (#28)5.1 (#29)2.1 (#3)
Last 4 Games23.5 (#22)4.6% (#26)6.0 (#31)229 (#18)7.3 (#23)164 (#31)4.8 (#24)1.8 (#7)
Season RecapPPG-PAMoney LineATS RecordO/U Record
All Games35.3 - 26.312-4, +1219-6, +24010-6 62.5% Over
On Road38.2 - 34.65-3, +1115-2, +2807-1 87.5% Over
At Home32.4 - 18.07-1, +1124-4, -403-5 62.5% Under
12/30 OAK35-3Win +10Covered -14.5Under 52.5
12/23 @SEA31-38Loss -100ATS Loss PKOver 56
12/13 LAC28-29Loss -100ATS Loss -3.5Over 54.5
12/9 BAL27-24Win +33ATS Loss -6.5Over 49
12/2 @OAK40-33Win +10ATS Loss -14Over 53.5
11/19 @LAR51-54Loss -100ATS Push +3Over 63.5
11/11 ARI26-14Win +6ATS Loss -16Under 49.5
11/4 @CLE37-21Win +23Covered -8Over 51.5
10/28 DEN30-23Win +22ATS Loss -8.5Under 53.5
10/21 CIN45-10Win +36Covered -6Under 56.5
10/14 @NE40-43Loss -100Covered +3.5Over 59.5
10/7 JAC30-14Win +67Covered -3Under 48
10/1 @DEN27-23Win +43Covered -3.5Under 53.5
9/23 SF38-27Win +38Covered -6Over 53.5
9/16 @PIT42-37Win +170Covered +4.5Over 52.5
9/9 @LAC38-28Win +165Covered +3.5Over 48