Tom Fornelli's College Football Power Ratings: Oregon climbs, Texas slides despite lopsided win
While Ohio State stayed on top, there was plenty of movement behind the Buckeyes this week
By
Tom Fornelli
•
6 min read
"Past is prologue." It's been more than 400 years since Shakespeare wrote that line in "The Tempest," but it still rings true.
When it comes to the AP Top 25 or Coaches Poll, we all get frustrated when voters lean too heavily on last season and brush aside what we've actually seen on the field. Instead of throwing preseason expectations out the window, they treat them as gospel while dismissing early results as flukes.
Power ratings should be different. If opinion polls are reactive, power polls are predictive. They're not about what has happened, but what's most likely to happen next. And when it comes to forecasting the future, history is often the best guide. Teams -- and humans -- are predictable. They repeat patterns, just in slightly different ways.
That's why a strong power rating must always bake in some history, but with the right balance of past and present. The deeper we go into the season, the more weight 2025 performances will carry. Last week brought little movement, but this week delivers plenty of change -- and a clear top tier is starting to form. The top five are tightly packed, with a noticeable drop off behind them.
Our No. 1 stays put, but there's a new No. 2. And in a reflection of the sport's current balance of power, 10 of our top 12 teams hail from the SEC or Big Ten. The ACC has one. Then there's Notre Dame.
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2025 Fornelli Power Ratings
| 1 |  |
| You will be shocked to learn that Ohio State's offense looked far better in a 70-0 win against Grambling than it did in the 14-7 victory over Texas . You will also be shocked to learn that not much of what happened in this game had an impact on how I rate Ohio State. Last week: 1 | National title odds: +550 | |
| 2 |  |
| The Ducks jump all the way to No. 2 from No. 6 last week, largely because the gap wasn't that big to begin with. The 69-3 thrashing of Oklahoma State had something to do with it, but not directly. I docked the Ducks a bit in the offseason with questions about their offense without a 35-year-old veteran journeyman quarterback and some concerns up front. The injury to Evan Stewart didn't help, either. But through two games, this looks like the same old Oregon offense we've come to know -- something I can't say about many other teams in the country right now. Last week: 6 | National title odds: +1000 | |
| 3 |  |
| I am concerned about Gunner Stockton . He hasn't played poorly to start the season, but he hasn't looked incredible against inferior competition, either. Georgia does have a habit of going half-speed in their early-season cupcake games, so we'll likely learn more about it this week when it's on the road against Tennessee . Last week: 3 | National title odds +700 | |
| 4 |  |
| Penn State is in a similar spot to Georgia. The Nittany Lions haven't looked incredible, but you can't be sure they're really trying to. It's a veteran team without a lot of question marks on the depth chart, so it's only logical that the focus of a soft nonconference slate is to get some reps in and stay healthy before hosting Oregon in Week 5. Last week: 4 | National title odds +650  | |
| 5 |  |
| Week 1 had college football fans squinting at screenshots to decide if Ryan Day really had a nipple piercing, or if the photo was doctored. Week 2 brought a new obsession: digging through old photos of Arch Manning to see if they should worry about his grimace when he throws. Well, while I won't go to the lengths Steve Sarkisian is willing to, the evidence suggests that's just how Arch looks. Manning Face is real, and this one is his. As for Texas dropping three spots despite a win, now that I'm leaning more on 2025 data, the numbers under the hood just aren't as strong as they are for other teams. So, they've been dinged a bit. Last week: 2 | National title odds +700 | |
| 6 |  |
| So how the hell did Alabama climb four spots? It's a combination of factors. The first is that, despite the sky-is-falling reactions to the Florida State loss, Alabama wasn't as bad as the reaction suggested to begin with. They certainly looked like Alabama against ULM on Saturday. Further helping matters is that Florida State might be genuinely good, and it's a loss that will make a lot more sense come November than it did last week. Last week: 10 | National title odds +1600  | |
| 7 |  |
| LSU's win over Clemson is keeping it in the top three of the polls, despite the fact Clemson struggled to beat Troy . I'm not looking to knock LSU -- I have them No. 7, after all -- but perhaps poll voters should reconsider how impressive LSU's road win was. I still think this team is pretty dang good, but we may not learn how good before October. Last week: 7 | National title odds +1000  | |
| 8 |  |
| The Irish took last week off, and I punished them for it! How dare you! Did you see the schedule of games we were stuck with in Week 2? You could've thrown us a bone by playing! It is funny that the Irish climbed a spot in both polls during their bye, though. They haven't won yet, but damn, they looked impressive in practice. Last week: 5 | National title odds +1400  | |
| 9 |  |
| The Rebels are currently alone in first place in the SEC because they've played in the league's only conference game so far this year. The Rebels beat Kentucky 30-23, and after the game, Lane Kiffin apologized to gamblers for allowing Kentucky to kick a field goal late to get a backdoor cover. Now, this might seem silly to you, but that matters to me. Coaching should be a part of how you rate teams. Lane Kiffin is well aware of the point spread every week, and he wants to cover it . Last week: Not ranked | National title odds +4000  | |
| 10 |  |
| Scheme matters, too. And Tennessee is showing just how plug-and-play this offense can be. That's not a knock on Joey Aguilar -- he's clearly executing it better so far than Nico Iamaleava did. But Josh Heupel's system does an excellent job of manufacturing explosive plays, and Aguilar is connecting on enough of them to make this team dangerous. Of course, the Vols' first two opponents were Syracuse and Eastern Tennessee, and early returns suggest Syracuse might be dreadful. If Tennessee keeps the fireworks coming against Georgia on Saturday, they'll probably climb a spot or two here. Last week: Not ranked | National title odds +3500 | |
| 11 |  |
| I'm not sure Oklahoma can sustain this level all season, but through two games the Sooners have earned a bump up. The lack of a reliable run game outside of John Mateer is concerning, though Mateer may be durable enough to shoulder that load. He got away with a few mistakes against Michigan that could bite them later, and that probably keeps Oklahoma out of serious title contention. Still, it doesn't keep them from being a good team that's firmly in the College Football Playoff race. Last week: Not ranked | National title odds +3300  | |
| 12 |  |
| Florida State is charging up my ratings quickly, but right now, Miami looks to be the ACC's best hope. The Canes followed up their win over Notre Dame with a scrimmage against Bethune-Cookman , and now must avoid becoming the third ranked team to lose to South Florida when the Bulls come to town. Last week: 11 | National title odds +2500  | |
Fell outside top 12: Clemson, Michigan, Texas A&M
