The Golden State Warriors Have a 25% Chance of Winning the Championship

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REGULAR SEASON RECAP

The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 60.9 wins. Their 57 actual wins was below expectation. They met expectations on the road. It was at home where they came up short. They won 65.9% on the road which was as expected (67.5%). They won 30 at home and were expected to win 33.2.

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STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES

SHOOTING (STRENGTH): They are an elite shooting team with a true FG% of 59.5% (#1 in League). The team shooting has declined to 56.7% in their last 7 games. They average 117.7 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 118.1. On the road they average 117.2 (116.8 expected), and at home 118.1 ppg (119.3 expected).

DEFENSE (STRENGTH): They are an above average defensive team holding opponents to 55 true FG% (#9 in League). They allow 111.2 pts per game vs an expected value of 110.1. They are allowing 110.9 (111.1 expected) on the road, and at home 111.5 ppg (109.1 expected).

REBOUNDING (STRENGTH): They are outrebounding opponents by 2 per game (#8 in league).

TURNOVERS (BELOW AVERAGE): They have an average turnover margin of -0.8 per game (#21 in league).

TEAM STATS AND AGAINST THE SPREAD GAMELOG

Below is a recap of all 82 regular games. Anyone who backed the Warriors in all of their games would be down -335 units. Against the spread, they have lost -1560 units risking 110 to win 100 (35-46 ATS). They are down against the spread at home and on the road.

Season RecapPPG-PAMoney LineATS RecordO/U RecordPts/PosPA/PosPos+/-
All Games117.7 - 111.257-25, -33535-46, -156038-44 53.7% Under1.191.12-1.08
On Road117.2 - 110.927-14, -33519-22, -52022-19 53.7% Over1.191.12-1.45
At Home118.1 - 111.530-11, -56116-24, -104016-25 61% Under1.191.12-0.72
4/10 @MEM117-132Loss -100ATS Loss -5Over 2141.181.35+1
4/9 @NO112-103Win +20ATS Loss -9.5Under 2351.151.01-5
4/7 LAC131-104Win +12Covered -11.5Under 237.51.341.02-4
4/5 CLE120-114Win +4ATS Loss -15.5Over 225.51.261.19-1
4/4 @LAL108-90Win +7Covered -13.5Under 2271.070.85-5
4/2 DEN116-102Win +25Covered -8.5Under 2201.130.95-5
3/31 CHA137-90Win +12Covered -11Under 2301.450.94-2
3/29 @MIN130-131Loss -100ATS Loss -10Over 228.51.161.15-3
3/27 @MEM118-103Win +17Covered -9.5Over 2201.251.08-1
3/24 DET121-114Win +18ATS Loss -10Over 2191.431.3-3
3/23 DAL91-126Loss -100ATS Loss -13.5Under 219.50.941.4+7
3/21 IND112-89Win +13Covered -10.5Under 218.51.150.910
3/19 @MIN117-107Win +33Covered -6.5Under 229.51.191.08-1
3/18 @SA105-111Loss -100ATS Loss -3Under 2271.11.18+2
3/16 @OKC110-88Win +110Covered +2Under 228.51.140.87-4
3/13 @HOU106-104Win +162Covered +4Under 2281.211.16-2
3/10 PHO111-115Loss -100ATS Loss -17Under 2341.081.16+4
3/8 DEN122-105Win +36Covered -6.5Under 2351.241.05-2
3/5 BOS95-128Loss -100ATS Loss -6.5Under 2280.921.26+2
3/2 @PHI120-117Win +47ATS Loss -5Under 2381.191.11-5
2/28 @ORL96-103Loss -100ATS Loss -4.5Under 2240.961.06+3
2/27 @MIA125-126Loss -100ATS Loss -9.5Over 225.51.291.35+4
2/25 @CHA121-110Win +27Covered -8.5Under 233.51.231.09-3
2/23 HOU112-118Loss -100ATS Loss -12Under 231.51.091.18+2
2/21 SAC125-123Win +10ATS Loss -12.5Over 2391.171.13-1
2/13 @POR107-129Loss -100ATS Loss -2Over 2351.171.37-3
2/12 UTA115-108Win +22ATS Loss -9Under 2291.211.07-6
2/10 MIA120-118Win +7ATS Loss -13.5Over 2221.271.19-5
2/8 @PHO117-107Win +4ATS Loss -16.5Under 229.51.161.05-1
2/6 SA141-102Win +5Covered -15Over 2321.451.02-3
2/2 LAL115-101Win +5ATS Loss -15Under 2341.171-3
1/31 PHI104-113Loss -100ATS Loss -8Under 240.51.071.160
1/28 @IND132-100Win +31Covered -7Over 228.51.321.01+1
1/26 @BOS115-111Win +60Covered -3.5Under 2331.191.11-3
1/24 @WAS126-118Win +20ATS Loss -9.5Over 234.51.261.17-1
1/21 @LAL130-111Win +10Covered -13Over 2331.311.07-4
1/18 @LAC112-94Win +33Covered -7.5Under 2421.110.92-1
1/16 NO147-140Win +33ATS Push -7Over 241.51.321.260
1/15 @DEN142-111Win +71Covered -2Over 2281.521.18-1
1/13 @DAL119-114Win +40ATS Loss -6.5Over 2271.261.210
1/11 CHI146-109Win +5Covered -15.5Over 220.51.461.12+3
1/8 NY122-95Win +2Covered -17Under 232.51.250.95-3
1/5 @SAC127-123Win +33ATS Loss -7.5Over 238.51.321.32+3
1/3 HOU134-135Loss -100ATS Loss -8.5Over 225.51.231.3+5
12/31 @PHO132-109Win +17Covered -10.5Over 2281.31.09+2
12/29 @POR115-105Win +47Covered -5Under 226.51.211.07-3
12/27 POR109-110Loss -100ATS Loss -8.5Under 22710.97-4
12/25 LAL101-127Loss -100ATS Loss -9Under 233.50.971.29+5
12/23 LAC129-127Win +14ATS Loss -11Over 233.51.331.29-2
12/22 DAL120-116Win +12ATS Loss -12Over 2251.211.14-3
12/19 @UTA103-108Loss -100ATS Loss -2Under 222.51.021.04-4
12/17 MEM110-93Win +14Covered -11Under 210.51.140.960
12/14 @SAC130-125Win +28ATS Loss -7.5Over 235.51.181.15+2
12/12 TOR93-113Loss -100ATS Loss -8Under 226.50.951.17+1
12/10 MIN116-108Win +18ATS Loss -9.5Under 228.51.161.09+1
12/7 @MIL105-95Win +105Covered +1.5Under 2401.060.94-2
12/5 @CLE129-105Win +11Covered -11Over 219.51.421.13-2
12/3 @ATL128-111Win +14Covered -10.5Over 235.51.261.06-4
12/1 @DET102-111Loss -100ATS Loss -4.5Under 228.51.061.11-3
11/29 @TOR128-131Loss -100Covered +9.5Over 2231.231.27+1
11/26 ORL116-110Win +33ATS Loss -7Over 215.51.231.1-6
11/24 SAC117-116Win +37ATS Loss -6.5Over 225.51.191.15-2
11/23 POR125-97Win +86Covered -1Over 218.51.30.98-3
11/21 OKC95-123Loss -100ATS Loss +1Under 223.50.961.22-1
11/18 @SA92-104Loss -100ATS Loss +3Under 21211.1-2
11/17 @DAL109-112Loss -100ATS Loss -2Over 215.51.121.13-1
11/15 @HOU86-107Loss -100ATS Loss +4Under 217.511.250
11/13 ATL110-103Win +12ATS Loss -11.5Under 2301.141.08+1
11/12 @LAC116-121Loss -100ATS Loss -3.5Over 226.51.11.1-5
11/10 BKN116-100Win +29Covered -7.5Under 223.51.261.14+4
11/8 MIL111-134Loss -100ATS Loss -5.5Over 242.51.081.25-5
11/5 MEM117-101Win +7Covered -14Under 220.51.271.07-2
11/2 MIN116-99Win +12Covered -10.5Under 243.51.190.99-2
10/31 NO131-121Win +20Covered -9Over 240.51.271.180
10/29 @CHI149-124Win +13Covered -11Over 2271.461.210
10/28 @BKN120-114Win +20ATS Loss -9.5Over 226.51.261.15-4
10/26 @NY128-100Win +11Covered -12Over 2251.331.01-3
10/24 WAS144-122Win +17Covered -10Over 2361.391.15-2
10/22 PHO123-103Win +10Covered -12.5Under 227.51.21.04+3
10/21 @DEN98-100Loss -100ATS Loss -4.5Under 228.51.011.05+2
10/19 @UTA124-123Win +74ATS Loss -2.5Over 2181.261.19-5
10/16 OKC108-100Win +9ATS Loss -13Under 2201.050.99+2