Oklahoma City Thunder Would Improve By 4 Wins Swapping Russell Westbrook for Chris Paul

PLAYOFF FORECAST

The Thunder were projected to win 49 and be one of 7 potential teams with a legit shot to win the West. With Paul George heading to the Clippers the Thunder dropped to a projected #9 in the West with just 41 wins. But after trading Westbrook for Paul they are back up to 45 wins. Houston had the best record after the All-Star Break when Paul was healthy. They struggled when he was out. Paul may not be able to win the championship as the best player on a team, but he is the best POINT GUARD for a young team needed leadership. Of course, the +4 wins IS NOT worth $40 million a year so look for Paul to get traded and the Thunder to fall out of the playoff picture. They have a 20.2% chance of getting past the first round of the playoffs. They have a 6.5% chance of getting past round 2. If they do manage to beat the odds and advance past round 2, their chances of winning the West is 1.7%. While not mathematically eliminated they are winning the championship in under 0.1% of simulations.

REGULAR SEASON RECAP

The regular season went worse than expected. They won 49 games vs an expected win total of 51.2. They met expectations on the road. It was at home where they came up short. They went 22-19 on the road and were expected to win 22.3. They won 27 at home and were expected to win 29.

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STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES

SHOOTING (WEAKNESS): They are a bad shooting team with a true FG% of 54.5% (#25 in League). Despite the weak shooting %, they still average more points per game (114.5) than expected (114.4). On the road they average 114.5 (113.6 expected), and at home 114.5 ppg (115.2 expected).

DEFENSE (AVERAGE): They are an average defensive team allowing opponents to shoot 56 true FG% (#16 in League). They allow 111.1 pts per game vs an expected value of 110.4. They are allowing 112.5 (112.3 expected) on the road, and at home 109.6 ppg (108.5 expected).

REBOUNDING (STRENGTH): They significantly outrebound opponents by an average of +2.2 per game (#6 in league).

TURNOVERS (STRENGTH): Their average turnover margin is 2.1 per game (#2 in league). Worst in their past 7 games with a turnover margin of -0.9.

TEAM STATS AND AGAINST THE SPREAD GAMELOG

Below is a recap of all 82 regular games. Anyone who backed the Thunder in all of their games would be down -163 units. Against the spread, they have lost -90 units risking 110 to win 100 (42-39 ATS). The Thunder have lost ATS on the road, but at home they have turned a profit.

Season RecapPPG-PAMoney LineATS RecordO/U RecordPts/PosPA/PosPos+/-
All Games114.5 - 111.149-33, -16342-39, -9039-41 51.2% Under1.121.1+0.62
On Road114.5 - 112.522-19, -12821-20, -10017-22 56.4% Under1.131.11+0.43
At Home114.5 - 109.627-14, -25021-19, +1022-19 53.7% Over1.121.08+0.81
4/10 @MIL127-116Win +50Covered -4.5Over 227.51.231.08-4
4/9 HOU112-111Win +130Covered +3Under 229.51.181.170
4/7 @MIN132-126Win +37ATS Loss -6.5Over 229.51.341.25-2
4/5 DET123-110Win +40Covered -6Over 2161.21.1+2
4/2 LAL119-103Win +9Covered -12.5Under 2261.171.020
3/31 DAL103-106Loss -100ATS Loss -12.5Under 2181.071.1+1
3/29 DEN105-115Loss -100ATS Loss -4.5Over 2181.131.29+4
3/27 IND107-99Win +34Covered -6.5Under 217.51.141.03-2
3/25 @MEM103-115Loss -100ATS Loss -7.5Over 216.51.051.19+1
3/22 @TOR116-109Win +115Covered +2Push 2251.211.17+3
3/20 TOR114-123Loss -100ATS Loss -5Over 2271.021.19+9
3/18 MIA107-116Loss -100ATS Loss -5.5Over 209.51.061.17+2
3/16 GS88-110Loss -100ATS Loss -2Under 228.50.871.14+4
3/14 @IND106-108Loss -100ATS Loss +1Under 2181.061.06-2
3/13 BKN108-96Win +36Covered -7Under 2321.130.99-2
3/11 @UTA98-89Win +145Covered +3.5Under 226.51.010.95+3
3/8 @LAC110-118Loss -100ATS Loss +2Under 2371.041.16+4
3/7 @POR129-121Win +145Covered +3.5Over 2331.141.1+3
3/5 @MIN120-131Loss -100ATS Loss -2Over 236.51.191.32+1
3/3 MEM99-95Win +18ATS Loss -9.5Under 2180.990.96+1
3/2 @SA102-116Loss -100ATS Loss +5Under 2291.061.18-1
2/28 PHI104-108Loss -100ATS Loss -4Under 2391.051.07-2
2/26 @DEN112-121Loss -100ATS Loss +3.5Under 2381.071.14-1
2/23 SAC116-119Loss -100ATS Loss -6Under 2401.051.09+1
2/22 UTA148-147Win +53ATS Loss -4Over 2271.21.190
2/14 @NO122-131Loss -100ATS Loss -4.5Over 238.51.181.32+4
2/11 POR120-111Win +50Covered -4.5Under 2321.21.08-3
2/9 @HOU117-112Win +120Covered +2.5Under 237.51.121.12+5
2/7 MEM117-95Win +7Covered -13.5Under 2151.220.96-3
2/5 ORL132-122Win +22Covered -8.5Over 223.51.171.11+2
2/3 @BOS129-134Loss -100ATS Loss +4Over 2281.261.30
2/1 @MIA118-102Win +60Covered -3.5Over 218.51.211.02-3
1/29 @ORL126-117Win +64Covered -3Over 222.51.271.170
1/27 MIL118-112Win +100Covered +1Under 235.51.171.08-3
1/24 NO122-116Win +7ATS Loss -14Over 2311.191.1-4
1/22 POR123-114Win +55Covered -4Over 225.51.271.15-3
1/21 @NY127-109Win +24Covered -9Over 225.51.291.11+1
1/19 @PHI117-115Win +145Covered +3.5Under 2351.181.160
1/17 LAL128-138Loss -100ATS Loss -10Over 2261.111.23+2
1/15 @ATL126-142Loss -100ATS Loss -10Over 234.51.21.41+4
1/12 SA122-112Win +38Covered -6Over 2271.21.10
1/10 @SA147-154Loss -100ATS Loss -1.5Over 224.51.241.30
1/8 MIN117-119Loss -100ATS Loss -8Over 228.51.191.210
1/6 WAS98-116Loss -100ATS Loss -10Under 227.50.991.170
1/4 @POR111-109Win +95Covered +1Under 223.51.111.08-1
1/2 @LAL107-100Win +42Covered -5.5Under 2290.990.93+1
12/31 DAL122-102Win +30Covered -8Over 2231.080.97+7
12/30 @DAL103-105Loss -100ATS Loss -2.5Under 224.51.011.04+1
12/28 @PHO118-102Win +53Covered -4.5Under 2261.160.99-1
12/25 @HOU109-113Loss -100ATS Loss -1Push 2221.091.11-2
12/23 MIN112-114Loss -100ATS Loss -6.5Over 221.51.131.140
12/22 @UTA107-106Win +95Covered +1Under 2181.041.06+4
12/19 @SAC132-113Win +56Covered -4.5Over 2321.221.07+2
12/17 CHI121-96Win +10Covered -12.5Over 212.51.190.98+3
12/15 LAC110-104Win +40ATS Push -6Under 2271.121.03-2
12/14 @DEN98-109Loss -100ATS Loss -2Under 218.51.061.16-1
12/12 @NO114-118Loss -100ATS Loss -2Under 234.51.11.12-2
12/10 UTA122-113Win +50Covered -5Over 217.51.191.11+1
12/7 @CHI112-114Loss -100ATS Loss -8Over 2191.041.11+5
12/5 @BKN114-112Win +37ATS Loss -6Over 2211.121.13+3
12/3 @DET110-83Win +77Covered -2.5Under 217.51.090.8-3
11/30 ATL124-109Win +8Covered -13Over 229.51.21.02-4
11/28 CLE100-83Win +8Covered -12.5Under 216.51.070.880
11/24 DEN98-105Loss -100ATS Loss -6Under 2170.981.050
11/23 CHA109-104Win +36ATS Loss -6.5Under 228.51.071.06+4
11/21 @GS123-95Win +86Covered -1Under 223.51.220.96+1
11/19 @SAC113-117Loss -100ATS Loss -5Over 2271.021.1+4
11/17 @PHO110-100Win +50Covered -5Under 217.51.111.03+2
11/14 NY128-103Win +20Covered -9Over 215.51.291-4
11/12 PHO118-101Win +27Covered -8Over 2151.211.08+4
11/10 @DAL96-111Loss -100ATS Loss +1.5Under 214.51.051.2-1
11/8 HOU98-80Win +175Covered +5Under 213.51.090.91+2
11/7 @CLE95-86Win +36Covered -6.5Under 216.50.990.88-1
11/5 NO122-116Win +61Covered -3.5Over 235.51.161.14+3
11/2 @WAS134-111Win +140Covered +3.5Over 2331.351.09-2
11/1 @CHA111-107Win +100Covered +1Under 230.51.11.03-4
10/30 LAC128-110Win +78Covered -2Over 2271.171.03+3
10/28 PHO117-110Win +8ATS Loss -13.5Over 2191.151.04-3
10/25 BOS95-101Loss -100ATS Loss +1Under 2190.941.04+3
10/21 SAC120-131Loss -100ATS Loss -10Over 2171.071.26+9
10/19 @LAC92-108Loss -100ATS Loss +3Under 2140.941.12+1
10/16 @GS100-108Loss -100Covered +13Under 2200.991.05-2