NBA Playoff Power Rankings: Raptors Still Hold 75% Series Edge With Durant Out

1TORONTO RAPTORS 58-24
Win 71% of Neutral Court Simulations

They Raptors are Game 6 underdogs but are favored by 57% in Game 7 simulations and have a 75% chance to win the Championship.  The regular season went better than expected. They won 58 games vs an expected win total of 55.2. They won more games than expected at home and on the road. They went 26-15 on the road and were expected to win 24.4. Their 78% home win percentage was better than expected (75.1%).

2GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS 57-25
Win 68% of Neutral Court Simulations

The Warriors, even without Durant, are winning 57% of Game 6 simulations but are only winning 43% in the Game 7 sims leaving them with a 25% chance to win out. The sum of all of their regular season money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 60.9 wins. Their 57 actual wins was below expectation. They met expectations on the road. It was at home where they came up short. They won 65.9% on the road which was as expected (67.5%). They won 30 at home and were expected to win 33.2.

3MILWAUKEE BUCKS 60-22
Win 72% of Neutral Court Simulations

The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 56.8 wins. Their 60 actual wins was above expectation. They exceeded expectations on both the road and at home. Their 80.5% home win percentage was better than expected (76.1%). They won 65.9% on the road which was better than expected (62.3%).

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4DENVER NUGGETS 54-28
Win 60% of Neutral Court Simulations

The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 50.6 wins. Their 54 actual wins was above expectation. They exceeded expectations at home. They went 20-21 on the road and were expected to win 21.2. They won 34 at home and were expected to win 29.4. The Nuggets may take a step back next season. They won a much higher percentage of games than their neutral win percentage would indicate.

5PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS 53-29
Win 62% of Neutral Court Simulations

The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 46.9 wins. Their 53 actual wins was above expectation. Their strength was at home. They won 51.2% on the road which was as expected (49.5%). They won 32 at home and were expected to win 26.6.

6HOUSTON ROCKETS 53-29
Win 64% of Neutral Court Simulations

Their 53 regular season wins exceeded expectations. It was +0.9 above what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went as expected. They exceeded expectations at home. Their 75.6% home win percentage was better than expected (70.6%). They won 53.7% on the road which was worse than expected (56.5%).

7PHILADELPHIA 76ERS 51-31
Win 61% of Neutral Court Simulations

The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 49.5 wins. Their 51 actual wins was above expectation. They exceeded expectations at home. They went 20-21 on the road and were expected to win 20.7. Their 75.6% home win percentage was better than expected (70.1%).

8UTAH JAZZ 50-32
Win 53% of Neutral Court Simulations

Their 50 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -3.7 below what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went worse than expected. They didn't meet expectations on the road and at home. They won 51.2% on the road which was worse than expected (57%). They won 29 at home and were expected to win 30.4. The Jazz may take a step back next season. They won a much higher percentage of games than their neutral win percentage would indicate.

9OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER 49-33
Win 54% of Neutral Court Simulations

The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 51.2 wins. Their 49 actual wins was below expectation. Home court was not an advantage, at least not in terms of meeting expectations. They were OK on the road. They went 22-19 on the road and were expected to win 22.3. They won 27 at home and were expected to win 29. They won more than their current neutral win simulation percentage warrants and the Thunder could take a step back next season.

10SAN ANTONIO SPURS 48-34
Win 52% of Neutral Court Simulations

The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 45.5 wins. Their 48 actual wins was above expectation. Their strength was at home. They won 39% on the road which was much worse than expected (46.8%). They won 32 at home and were expected to win 26.3. They won more than their current neutral win simulation percentage warrants and the Spurs could take a step back next season.

11BOSTON CELTICS 49-33
Win 60% of Neutral Court Simulations

The regular season went worse than expected. They won 49 games vs an expected win total of 52.1. They didn't meet expectations on the road and at home. They won 51.2% on the road which was worse than expected (56.3%). They won 28 at home and were expected to win 29.1.

12LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS 48-34
Win 46% of Neutral Court Simulations

The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 42.4 wins. Their 48 actual wins was above expectation. They exceeded expectations on both the road and at home. They won 53.7% on the road which was much better than expected (43.4%). They won 26 at home and were expected to win 24.6. The Clippers may take a step back next season. They won a much higher percentage of games than their neutral win percentage would indicate.

13INDIANA PACERS 48-34
Win 49% of Neutral Court Simulations

The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 45.5 wins. Their 48 actual wins was above expectation. They exceeded expectations at home. They won 46.3% on the road which was as expected (46.9%). They won 29 at home and were expected to win 26.3. The Pacers may take a step back next season. They won a much higher percentage of games than their neutral win percentage would indicate.

14ORLANDO MAGIC 42-40
Win 42% of Neutral Court Simulations

Their 42 regular season wins exceeded expectations. It was +5.2 above what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went better than expected. They won more games than expected at home and on the road. They went 17-24 on the road and were expected to win 15. They won 25 at home and were expected to win 21.8. The Magic may take a step back next season. They won a much higher percentage of games than their neutral win percentage would indicate.

15BROOKLYN NETS 42-40
Win 41% of Neutral Court Simulations

Their 42 regular season wins exceeded expectations. It was +5.6 above what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went much better than expected. They exceeded expectations on the road. They won 46.3% on the road which was much better than expected (36.2%). They won 23 at home and were expected to win 21.6. The Nets may take a step back next season. They won a much higher percentage of games than their neutral win percentage would indicate.

16DETROIT PISTONS 41-41
Win 40% of Neutral Court Simulations

The regular season went as expected. They won 41 games vs an expected win total of 40.6. They exceeded expectations at home. They won 36.6% on the road which was worse than expected (40.1%). They won 26 at home and were expected to win 24.2. The Pistons may take a step back next season. They won a much higher percentage of games than their neutral win percentage would indicate.

17SACRAMENTO KINGS 39-43
Win 50% of Neutral Court Simulations

The Kings are winning more in simulations than they did last season which indicates that they should improve next season. The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 35.6 wins. Their 39 actual wins was above expectation. Their strength was at home. Their 58.5% home win percentage was better than expected (51.1%). They won 36.6% on the road which was as expected (35.7%).

18MIAMI HEAT 39-43
Win 54% of Neutral Court Simulations

If the Heat play up to their potential, they should improve on last season. Their 39 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -1.6 below what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went worse than expected. Home court was not an advantage, at least not in terms of meeting expectations. They were OK on the road. They won 48.8% on the road which was much better than expected (41.4%). They won 19 at home and were expected to win 23.6.

19CHARLOTTE HORNETS 39-43
Win 50% of Neutral Court Simulations

If the Hornets play up to their potential, they should improve on last season. The regular season went worse than expected. They won 39 games vs an expected win total of 40.4. They met expectations at home, it was on the road that they struggled. They won 34.1% on the road which was much worse than expected (38.9%). They won 25 at home and were expected to win 24.5.

20LOS ANGELES LAKERS 37-45
Win 48% of Neutral Court Simulations

The Lakers are winning more in simulations than they did last season which indicates that they should improve next season. Their 37 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -1.9 below what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went worse than expected. They met expectations at home, it was on the road that they struggled. Their 53.7% home win percentage was as expected (52.7%). They won 36.6% on the road which was much worse than expected (42.1%).

21MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES 36-46
Win 48% of Neutral Court Simulations

The Timberwolves are winning more in simulations than they did last season which indicates that they should improve next season. The regular season went worse than expected. They won 36 games vs an expected win total of 38. They came up short on the road. They were OK at home. They won 26.8% on the road which was much worse than expected (39.2%). They won 25 at home and were expected to win 22.

22NEW ORLEANS PELICANS 33-49
Win 49% of Neutral Court Simulations

The Pelicans are winning more in simulations than they did last season which indicates that they should improve next season. Their 33 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -4.4 below what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went much worse than expected. They came up short at home and on the road. They went 14-27 on the road and were expected to win 15.7. Their 46.3% home win percentage was much worse than expected (52.8%).

23MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES 33-49
Win 49% of Neutral Court Simulations

The Grizzlies are winning more in simulations than they did last season which indicates that they should improve next season. The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 33.5 wins. Their 33 actual wins was below expectation. Their strength was at home. Their 51.2% home win percentage was better than expected (48.6%). They won 29.3% on the road which was much worse than expected (33.1%).

24DALLAS MAVERICKS 33-49
Win 45% of Neutral Court Simulations

The Mavericks are winning more in simulations than they did last season which indicates that they should improve next season. Their 33 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -1.9 below what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went worse than expected. They met expectations at home, it was on the road that they struggled. Their 58.5% home win percentage was better than expected (52.7%). They won 22% on the road which was much worse than expected (32.6%).

25WASHINGTON WIZARDS 32-50
Win 39% of Neutral Court Simulations

The regular season went much worse than expected. They won 32 games vs an expected win total of 38.3. They came up short on the road. They were OK at home. They went 10-31 on the road and were expected to win 15.6. They won 22 at home and were expected to win 22.7.

26ATLANTA HAWKS 29-53
Win 46% of Neutral Court Simulations

The Hawks could be poised to improve next season. Their neutral court simulation win percentage is significantly better than last season's win percentage. The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 25.6 wins. Their 29 actual wins was above expectation. Their strength was in road games. They went 12-29 on the road and were expected to win 9.6. They won 17 at home and were expected to win 16.

27CHICAGO BULLS 22-60
Win 34% of Neutral Court Simulations

The Bulls could be poised to improve next season. Their neutral court simulation win percentage is significantly better than last season's win percentage. The regular season went much worse than expected. They won 22 games vs an expected win total of 25. They met expectations on the road. It was at home where they came up short. They won 31.7% on the road which was much better than expected (24.7%). They won 9 at home and were expected to win 14.8.

28PHOENIX SUNS 19-63
Win 35% of Neutral Court Simulations

The Suns are winning more in simulations than they did last season which indicates that they should improve next season. Their 19 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -3.4 below what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went much worse than expected. They didn't meet expectations on the road and at home. Their 29.3% home win percentage was much worse than expected (33.7%). They won 17.1% on the road which was much worse than expected (20.9%).

29CLEVELAND CAVALIERS 19-63
Win 31% of Neutral Court Simulations

If the Cavaliers play up to their potential, they should improve on last season. The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 20.8 wins. Their 19 actual wins was below expectation. They met expectations at home, it was on the road that they struggled. They won 14.6% on the road which was much worse than expected (19%). They won 13 at home and were expected to win 13.

30NEW YORK KNICKS 17-65
Win 27% of Neutral Court Simulations

If the Knicks play up to their potential, they should improve on last season. Their 17 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -5.3 below what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went much worse than expected. They came up short at home and on the road. They went 8-33 on the road and were expected to win 9.1. Their 22% home win percentage was much worse than expected (32.3%).