NBA Game 6: Warriors Favored by 54 Percent Even Without Durant

Thursday, June 13, 2019

Toronto Raptors vs Golden State Warriors

The odds favor the Warriors, and the sims are solidly on the Warriors as well. The projected score is Warriors 109 and Raptors 106, and Golden State is winning 57% of the sims. The Warriors are -156 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 61 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. Head-to-head, the Raptors are 5-4. In these games, the Raptors averaged 115 and the Warriors 110 ppg. The projection based point spread is GS -3. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening -3.5. The Warriors have a record of 36-52-2 as a favorite. The Raptors have a record of 14-8-0 as an underdog. Their ATS record is similar to their straight up record against each other. The Raptors have the ATS edge head to head going 6-3-0 vs the Warriors. The Warriors were favored by an average of -2.2 points in these games but the Raptors won by an average of 5.1 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Toronto Raptors210.5103.5106.141%43%115.1 (5 Wins)
Golden State Warriors-3.5107.0108.959%57%110.0 (4 Wins)

VEGAS is the expected score based on the point spread and over/under, PROJ is the average score from computer simulations, ML% is the implied probability of the money lines adjusted for the juice, SIM% is the percentage of simulations each team won, PAST H2H is the average score from recent head to head matchups

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