Bucks Slip From Top in the East Without Malcolm Brogden… But Back on Top Now

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PLAYOFF FORECAST

They were up 2-0 against the eventual champ. They kept Middleton and Lopez but by losing Malcolm Brogden to a division rival resulting in their slipping to #2 in the East. With Kawhi leaving Toronto they are back on top. They have a 79% chance of getting past the first round of the playoffs. They have a 53.6% chance of getting past round 2. Their chances of then winning the East is 34.3%. They have 19% chance of winning the championship.

REGULAR SEASON RECAP

The regular season went better than expected. They won 60 games vs an expected win total of 56.8. They won more games than expected at home and on the road. They won 65.9% on the road which was better than expected (62.3%). They won 33 at home and were expected to win 31.2.

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STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES

SHOOTING (STRENGTH): They are an elite shooting team with a true FG% of 57.9% (#3 in League). The team shooting has declined to 53.7% in their last 7 games. They average 118.1 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 116.5. On the road they average 116.4 (115.7 expected), and at home 119.9 ppg (117.3 expected).

DEFENSE (STRENGTH): This is an elite defensive team holding opponents to 53 true FG% (#1 in League). They allow 109.3 pts per game vs an expected value of 110.2. They are allowing 110.7 (111.7 expected) on the road, and at home 107.8 ppg (108.8 expected).

REBOUNDING (STRENGTH): They significantly outrebound opponents by an average of +4.8 per game (#1 in league).

TURNOVERS (BELOW AVERAGE): They have an average turnover margin of -0.3 per game (#16 in league).

TEAM STATS AND AGAINST THE SPREAD GAMELOG

Below is a recap of all 82 regular games. Anyone who backed the Bucks in all of their games would have earned a +22 unit profit at a 100 per game risk. Against the spread, they have delivered a +1180 profit risking 110 to win 100 (47-32 ATS). They are profitable against the spread at home and on the road.

Season RecapPPG-PAMoney LineATS RecordO/U RecordPts/PosPA/PosPos+/-
All Games118.1 - 109.360-22, +2247-32, +118041-40 50.6% Over1.171.08-0.41
On Road116.4 - 110.727-14, +23924-16, +64020-21 51.2% Under1.151.09-0.29
At Home119.9 - 107.833-8, +2223-16, +54021-19 52.5% Over1.181.06-0.52
4/10 OKC116-127Loss -100ATS Loss +4.5Over 227.51.081.23+4
4/7 ATL115-107Win +11ATS Loss -11.5Under 2351.11.01-1
4/6 BKN128-133Loss -100ATS Loss -3.5Over 235.51.271.320
4/4 @PHI128-122Win +54Covered -4Over 231.51.171.14+2
4/1 @BKN131-121Win +102Covered +1Over 2301.181.09-1
3/31 @ATL135-136Loss -100ATS Loss -2Over 230.51.171.19+1
3/28 LAC128-118Win +18ATS Push -10Over 231.51.31.17-2
3/26 HOU108-94Win +66Covered -3Under 2241.070.91-2
3/24 CLE127-105Win +7Covered -14Over 223.51.311.06-2
3/22 MIA116-87Win +29Covered -7.5Under 217.51.220.96+4
3/20 @CLE102-107Loss -100ATS Loss -5.5Under 2251.081.1-3
3/19 LAL115-101Win +16Covered -11Under 228.51.130.98-1
3/17 PHI125-130Loss -100ATS Loss -5.5Over 2301.211.22-4
3/15 @MIA113-98Win +44Covered -5Under 220.51.120.960
3/12 @NO130-113Win +15Covered -10.5Over 2371.151.01+1
3/10 @SA114-121Loss -100ATS Loss -2Over 2291.161.23-1
3/9 CHA131-114Win +11Covered -12Over 227.51.351.13-4
3/7 IND117-98Win +18Covered -10Under 2231.220.99-2
3/4 @PHO105-114Loss -100ATS Loss -13.5Under 232.51.051.18+4
3/2 @UTA111-115Loss -100Covered +4.5Over 223.51.081.15+3
3/1 @LAL131-120Win +43Covered -5.5Over 2401.321.19-1
2/27 @SAC141-140Win +36ATS Loss -6.5Over 237.51.211.17-3
2/25 @CHI117-106Win +26Covered -7.5Under 224.51.211.08-1
2/23 MIN140-128Win +8ATS Loss -13Over 2311.381.23-3
2/21 BOS98-97Win +38ATS Loss -6.5Under 2271.021.010
2/13 @IND106-97Win +53Covered -4.5Under 2191.120.98-4
2/11 @CHI112-99Win +12Covered -11.5Under 2271.110.96-3
2/9 ORL83-103Loss -100ATS Loss -6.5Under 222.50.861.08+1
2/8 @DAL122-107Win +40Covered -6Over 2261.251.110
2/6 WAS148-129Win +12Covered -12Over 2291.41.15-6
2/4 @BKN113-94Win +34Covered -7.5Under 2301.110.88-5
2/2 @WAS131-115Win +40Covered -6Over 2271.281.15+2
1/31 @TOR105-92Win +116Covered +2.5Under 2321.120.9-9
1/29 @DET115-105Win +36Covered -7Over 2161.261.150
1/27 @OKC112-118Loss -100ATS Loss -1Under 235.51.081.17+3
1/25 CHA108-99Win +12ATS Loss -11Under 2301.080.97-2
1/21 DAL116-106Win +13ATS Loss -11Under 224.51.131.040
1/19 @ORL118-108Win +19ATS Push -10Over 221.51.221.13+1
1/16 @MEM111-101Win +40Covered -6Under 212.51.120.98-3
1/15 MIA124-86Win +25Covered -8.5Under 2181.240.87+1
1/13 @ATL133-114Win +19Covered -9.5Over 2321.231.03-3
1/11 @WAS106-113Loss -100ATS Loss -1.5Under 227.51.091.17+1
1/9 @HOU116-109Win +80Covered -2Under 2291.161.1+1
1/7 UTA114-102Win +45Covered -5.5Under 2221.131.06+5
1/5 TOR116-123Loss -100ATS Loss -5Over 225.51.171.250
1/4 ATL144-112Win +8Covered -13.5Over 2301.311-2
1/1 DET121-98Win +17Covered -10Push 2191.281.01-3
12/29 BKN129-115Win +16Covered -10.5Over 2221.241.16+4
12/27 NY112-96Win +6Covered -14.5Under 2271.10.96+2
12/25 @NY109-95Win +19Covered -10Under 2261.070.94+1
12/22 @MIA87-94Loss -100ATS Loss -3Under 215.50.880.98+2
12/21 @BOS120-107Win +80Covered -1.5Over 223.51.231.08-1
12/19 NO123-115Win +22ATS Loss -9Over 2301.241.12-3
12/17 @DET107-104Win +56ATS Loss -4Under 2261.121.08-1
12/14 @CLE114-102Win +22Covered -9.5Under 219.51.171.08+3
12/12 @IND97-113Loss -100ATS Loss -2Under 21911.16-1
12/10 CLE108-92Win +16Covered -10.5Under 216.51.090.93-1
12/9 @TOR104-99Win +165Covered +4.5Under 229.51.111.06+1
12/7 GS95-105Loss -100ATS Loss -1.5Under 2400.941.06+2
12/5 DET115-92Win +33Covered -7.5Under 2261.130.86-5
12/1 @NY134-136Loss -100ATS Loss -8.5Over 230.51.231.23-2
11/28 CHI116-113Win +5ATS Loss -14.5Under 229.51.191.13-2
11/26 @CHA107-110Loss -100ATS Loss -4.5Under 2341.081.14+3
11/24 SA135-129Win +20ATS Loss -9.5Over 226.51.331.280
11/23 PHO114-116Loss -100ATS Loss -13.5Under 232.51.111.15+2
11/21 POR143-100Win +33Covered -7.5Over 226.51.280.92+3
11/19 DEN104-98Win +43Covered -5.5Under 2241.11.01-2
11/16 CHI123-104Win +6Covered -14.5Over 225.51.211.01-2
11/14 MEM113-116Loss -100ATS Loss -10Over 214.51.181.19-2
11/11 @DEN121-114Win +140Covered +3.5Over 2231.31.21-1
11/10 @LAC126-128Loss -100ATS Loss -4Over 233.51.121.13-1
11/8 @GS134-111Win +215Covered +5.5Over 242.51.251.08+5
11/6 @POR103-118Loss -100ATS Loss -2Under 2301.141.29-1
11/4 SAC144-109Win +18Covered -10Over 235.51.351.020
11/1 @BOS113-117Loss -100ATS Loss +2.5Over 220.51.131.2+2
10/29 TOR124-109Win +114Covered +2Over 2231.181.03-1
10/27 ORL113-91Win +22Covered -9.5Under 2201.10.87-1
10/26 @MIN125-95Win +71Covered -2Under 233.51.220.9-3
10/24 PHI123-108Win +45Covered -5Over 228.51.10.99+3
10/22 NY124-113Win +12ATS Push -11Over 2261.271.11-4
10/19 IND118-101Win +57Covered -4Over 216.51.140.98+1
10/17 @CHA113-112Win +62ATS Loss -3Over 2221.131.130