MLB Picks: Value on Home Underdog Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros

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Thursday, July 11, 2019

Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers

The simulations slightly favor the Rangers who are actually the underdogs according to Vegas odds. The projected score is TEX 5.2 and HOU 5.1, and Texas is winning 51% of simulations. The moneyline for the Astros is -138 which translates to 58 percent (chance of winning). People are betting more heavily on the Astros based on how the moneyline is moving. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Astros going 18-11. The Astros actually have the large edge in profit at +-214 to 565 units. The Rangers were +196 underdogs on average. In these games, the Astros averaged 5 and the Rangers 3.9 runs.

EXPECTATIONSODDS o11VEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Houston Astros-1385.75.156%49%5.0 (18 Wins)
Texas Rangers+1205.35.244%51%3.9 (11 Wins)

VEGAS is the expected score based on the moneylines and over/under, PROJ is the average score from computer simulations, ML% is the implied probability of the moneylines adjusted for the juice, SIM% is the percentage of simulations each team won, PAST H2H is the average score from recent head to head matchups

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